I think that it is possible that Kerry could lose both states and win the nomination.

However Dennis Kucinich winning is more likely.
Terra | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 1:33 am | #

The Duke is just trying to stick up for his former lt governor. oops - did I let it slip that Kerry was once associated with Dukakis??
tedward | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 1:49 am | #

Campaign advice from Dukakis? Isn't that kind of like getting tips on fielding ground balls in high pressure situations from Bill Buckner?

Sorry - I just can't get the tank image out of my mind.
johninPortland | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 2:14 am | #

Did you see Susan Estrich (Dukakis' campaign director?) on Hannity & Colmes on Tuesday saying very firmly and enthusiastically that the ticket would and should be Dean-Clark.
Rico | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 4:00 am | #

Although I am a great Dean supporter I think it is dangerouse to rule out this possibility.

There are signs that Kerry has all but given up on New Hampshire and if he dedicates his money to other early states where his message resonates better he could pick up momentum

With that said, I think that if the Dean campaign continues to organized well at the local level in the other early voting sates, it may be impossible for the Kerry camp to catch up before super tuesday when it will all be over. But it could be a long road to March.
Jacob in NZ | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 5:52 am | #

Jacob, Kerry needs a message first before it can resonate.
Kentucky Muncy | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 7:20 am | #

Again, I'm not going to dump on Dukakis. He's standing by his man and that's good.

The trouble is, not enough other people are doing that. Kerry is relying on "state-by-state" strategizing and TV ads to beat a national movement. It's a little like watching a kid with a stick try to hold back the tides. You know the kid's going to get wet, but you gotta admire his optimism.

And, as someone else pointed out here, Dukakis is his political daddy.
Dana Blankenhorn | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 8:09 am | #

Not only could Kerry lose New Hampshire, he could very well lose Connecticut, as well as Joe Lieberman. And if he loses Vermont, most likely, and Maine, that would be an embarrassment to Kerry. I'm assuming that Kerry will win Massachusetts, but I know Mass for Dean supporters are working their tails off for Dean to win Massachusetts.

Lieberman Meetups are the same day as Dean's and yesterday all Lieberman Meetups IN CONNECTICUT were canceled due to not reaching the minimum number of 5. This is the 2nd month in a row that Lieberman Meetups have been canceled IN CONNECTICUT. Joe isn't drawing enthusiasm from his own constituents. He's facing a voter backlash in his home state. We had a mayor from a town nearby and various members of Eastern CT Democratic Town Committees, past and present, attend looking at Howard for hope.

The Dean Meetups in Connneticut are growing. Fairfield is the oldest and has already split into 3 sites. Hartford the same. My Meetup, Norwich, CT lags behind the others. Last night was our 3rd Meetup, but we drew good press, thanks to Jim Dean, on Sep 2 (Political Novices Helping To Fuel Dean's Campaign: Local Activists Hope His Candidacy Will Energize Nation's Democrats http://www.theday.com/eng/web/ne...9-A1F925A6BB7D) and today (The Day -- Howard Dean Gets Boost From Brother At Norwich ‘Meetup' http://www.theday.com/eng/web/ne...E0- 13411A9301A3

The Norwich Bulletin -- Dean organizing in state http://www.norwichbulletin.com/n...ws/186344.html) .

Kerry isn't even trying to campaign in Connecticut. We're fortunate that we have Jim Dean, who is heading the Connecticut Dean Campaign for now, and yesterday on the WINY Putnam radio and at our Meetup last night, Jim said that the Dean Campaign plans on winning Connecticut's primary. Maybe that's why Lieberman is supporting Bustamante in California. He either is taking Connecticut for granted or he knows that he is in trouble in his own state.

We still have a lot of outreach work to do in Connecticut, but we are very enthused and it's drawing new members.
Terry from Killingly, CT | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 9:42 am | #

Yes, it's true that Kerry could lose NH and Iowa and still win the nomination.


And monkeys could fly out of my ....
George | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 10:18 am | #

I have a couple of clear memories of the Dukakis campaign. One is of the campaign staff--rank amateurs who thought they were the hottest stuff to ever come down the pike and denigrated those with the street smarts and experience they lacked. The other is that infamous photo of Dukakis' head poking out of the armored personnel carrier--it is comparable to the current up-nose and Harley shots of Kerry on his web site. With all due respect, one should seek the advice of winners.
Alan in CA | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 10:56 am | #

what was dukakis' stance on the war?
niner | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 11:14 am | #

Click my name to vote in an online poll.
Chris Cypser | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 11:58 am | #

yeah, Alan, i agree one shouild seek the advice of winners. why does everyone fawn over bob shrum? the guy's lost just about all his presidential campaigns and has been proven to be a disaster (see Gore). after i heard Kerry won the "shrum" primary, i assumed he was toast.
IHL | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 12:45 pm | #

I'm with you Alan! It's hard to take Dukakis' opinion seriously when he let the likes of Susan Estrich run his presidential campaign.
Mal Hoenig | Email | Homepage | 09.04.03 - 1:31 pm | #

The problem for these guys who've decided to conceed Iowa to Dean or Gephardt and NH to Dean is by all appearances Dean is running hard in all the early February states. He has paid state directors in 12 states and is running TV ads in 8.

While someone other than Dean might take South Carolina, Dean will maintain momentum if he picks up some of the other states such as OK, NM, and AZ. Then on the 7th he is pretty much a lock for Washington and stands a good chance of taking Michigan. As long as he keeps momentum up through March 2nd he will take many of the big states that day such as CA, TX, and NY.

If Dean can pull off a near sweep on Feb 3rd (placing 2nd in MO and 1 other state). He will have locked up the race if that includes a win in SC or a strong second.
Chris Stefan | Email | Homepage | 09.05.03 - 5:27 pm | #