Oh, I think they are wrong. Bush's ratings are not likely to have hit their low yet. And thinking of lows makes me think of highs; I haven't noticed anyone rolling out that chestnut about "peaking too soon" when talking about Howard Dean lately. Given the fundraising numbers, it looks like certain other would-be Presidential nominees *have* peaked, though.
Alan in CA | Email | Homepage | 10.03.03 - 12:30 am | #

Lets hope the Q3 numbers put the "peaking too soon" nonsense to bed for good.
Chris Stefan | Email | Homepage | 10.03.03 - 1:24 am | #

>>AMY WALTER, "The Cook Political Report":

Well, you know, what's really interesting is if you go back in history and you look at the last five presidents, you'll find that where the pres -- this President Bush is, is really at sort of the historical norm. And you go back to Nixon, all the way up till now, about November or so of the year before the election, they all were in between 50 percent, 55 percent of the vote. So you're sort of at a normal point.

The really fascinating thing, though, is what happens after December. That's when the polls really start to count, and what you notice was that for all of those incumbent presidents in their first term who start getting over 50 percent of the vote in these Gallup polls, they went on to win re-election. The ones that started to drop below 50, they went on to lose re-election.


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/ 2...ain575647.shtml
niner | Email | Homepage | 10.03.03 - 2:43 am | #

I heard today on NPR the following: In all the years that Gallop has been doing polls 1) some Presidents have had lower approval ratings than W's are today and have still won re-election ....But....2) Only three have had their poll numbers actually dropping at this point in their presidency a) Ford in 1975 b) Bush I in 1991 and c) Bush II in 2003!

Finally, that long awaited ray of hope...
MG | Email | Homepage | 10.03.03 - 10:25 am | #

Actually the poll overestimates Bush approval. The people responding to the poll voted in 2000 like this: 27% for Gore and 38% for Bush. Looks like a sampling error of 11% more favorable to Bush than reality.
Janet of Berkeley | Email | Homepage | 10.03.03 - 12:44 pm | #