As anyone with a pulse could have predicted, the effect of Kerry's attacks has been exactly the opposite of what he intended. I think Kerry's attacks would have raised Dean whatever their content. But they might have hurt Dean if their had been any substance whatsoever to them. For the three fights Kerry has picked with Dean -- over Dean's words on the military, Dean's comments on Kerry's position on gay rights, and Vermont health care coverage -- Kerry relied on, respectively, an obvious caricature of Dean's words, a misquote in the SF Chronicle, and bogus statistics (if we are to believe the doctor on this last point, and I do)d. All of this makes me think Kerry hasn't found any issue to attack Dean with, and he's feeling desperate. I think he must be waiting for the right moment to unleash the "draft dodging" charge. I hope Dean's campaign is ready for it.
Actually, they already unleashed the draft dodger charge. I think part of Lehane's last attack had something about Dean skiing in Colorado after he got a medical deferment.
Looks like you're right:
http://www.boston.com/
dailyglobe..._reunion+.shtml
Lehane didn't actually give a quote about the skiing, at least not that's in this article, but he clearly fed the story to the reporter.
I have to think how happy I am that Lehane is not running Dean's campaign. This whole take-him-now-with-cheap-shots strategy is not only slimey, but also ineffective.
as far as the draft-dodging charge, do we really think it's going to be that big of a deal? i know 9/11 and all, but a few things. first, bush went AWOL and he's commander in chief. clinton didn't serve. was carter a veteran (i honestly don't know, as i was very young back then)?
i personally don't have an issue with that as a voter, because had i been alive i sure as hell wouldn't have wanted to go kill strangers for questionable purposes (oh, the symmetry!). i know that other people will have a problem, but what do you think the cumulative effect of that will really be? anyone have any idea?
I don't think it will matter; if Vietnam is the only thing Kerry has over the other candidates the well is going to run dry on him. I think the only way it could hurt Dean is if there was something fishy about it (or he responded in a way that made it seem like there was something fishy about it). Otherwise it's just going to be more smear tactics and another indication that the Kerry campaign is in trouble.
Kerry cannot lose New Hampshire. Dean can afford to come in second. Advantage Dean, and everyone knows it.
Carter was a veteren.
I don't think it will be a big deal. We just need to call it out as the cheap attack tactic that it is. Or they can just call it "youthful indescretion", if there is any merit to the draft dodging charge. How would Dubya respond to that?
"the Kerry campaign has decided to stop Dean now"
Yoohoo, Mister Lehane? ... it's not whirrr-king. 
I am just a tourist. An observer that oooh and aaahs and takes pictures... a member of the chattering class. You folks are over my head. I love these attacks by Lehane! They give Dean such great openings! For one, they helped Dean clarify his foreign policy and ditch the 'anti-war', wamsy pamsy sound byte. What a great opportunity. Instead of Lehane putting Kerry's name in the press he's putting Dean's name there! Coolness. We should send him flowers.
I can't help but think of Judy Carne in Laugh In "Sock it to me! Sock it to me!"
I'm sure you, JT, will not get derailed from your message. In the meantime, through my binocs this is a gift.
The Maria Maria Bartiromo piece was great today! I loved the lead in with Buffet's comments against Dubya's tax cuts at the very end. On the return appearance perhaps a interview with Soros could be arranged as a leadin? Gotta love it.
[btw, I refuse to take responsibility for any typos or general stupidities in this inky dinky text frame w/o a preview... edit is on you!]
I doubt the draft-dodging charge would hurt Dean among the sort of people who turn out to vote in Democratic primaries, though I do think it could lose him votes in the main election. True, it will be dangerous for the Bush people to make too much of it, given the potential for raising the AWOL story to a higher profile (I still can't figure out how he got away with ducking this in 2000.) But Bush is commander-in-chief now, so he doesn't have to prove his military credentials anymore. Anytime the AWOL story comes up, they'll just air that footage of him getting out of the jet on the aircraft carrier. It's Dean whose defense credentials will be questioned, especially as national security will be a central issue in the main election. This is why it's essential for him to get Wesley Clark as a running mate.
By the way, I caught the "After Hours with Maria Bartiromo" interview with Dean tonight. Some comments:
Overall it was good but not outstanding. Dean seemed a little stiff; he did smile once or twice but didn't seem completely at ease. He gave good answers to everything and handled the "Kerry tiff" question well, quoting Edwards' line about either of them being better than Bush. Some of his answers could have been tighter. Asked about his national security credibility Dean gave a solid answer defending his stance on Iraq but I think missed an opportunity to be more pro-active and say something like: "The number one question the President has to ask is, what can I do to make people safer? Starting a war is not necessarily going to do that. This President has been neglecting homeland security and the needs of our police, firefighters, paramedics and other first response teams, and he has antagonized the very international friends and neighbors we need to help us track down terrorists. Make no mistake, as President I will go to war when it is truly necessary, but more importantly I will do everything I can to make sure that it is not necessary.”
Back in my misty past, I was a content developer on a training system that dealt with spinal injuries/conditions and if I recall, unfused vertebrae are a problem if you have to carry heavy weights or sit for long periods of time. That would be a problem for a soldier and I could see why the army would classify Dr. Dean as 1-Y.
On the other hand, unfused vertebrae do not necessarily cause flexion problems--in fact, a core strengthening activity like skiing would not only be possible, but also beneficial. BUT most people believe that a bad back equals total disability and that anyone who really had a back problem would be incapable of leading a physically active life and that includes a number of people who have back problems themselves. And that, I might add is a cryin' shame really, and not just for the sake of our candidate.
Gabriel, thanks for the link. Perfect. Dean's stiffness will be read as this vertebra problem. I don't know if there is any connection at all - but I'd bet dollars to donuts that people that have watched him will flash/wonder on that first.
If Bush wants to call Dean a draft dodger I have three words for that weasel:
Bring. It. On.
As to the "National Security" question, it was interesting to see that Dean's response to it at the debate was something akin to "After 9/11, all governors became national security experts" -- good response, yes, but it tends to marginalize the amount of time spent on civic defense/public safety issues over his 11+ years as governor (okay, maybe since it's Vermont this isn't as such an issue as in California or New York, but the fact still remains). Had Dean said "I was a governor for 11+ years, and as such entrusted to protect the citizens of Vermont, etc., I think that would have been a stronger case for his credential on the issue.
Just another comment on how this "really" works. The Kerry campaign has spent the last two months "spinning" every piece of negative information they can about Governor Dean. They had reporters chasing down some 1961 quote by President Kennedy -- and I got to spend a good part of my day explaining that I was 5 years old back then and that the Governor was 11 something -- so either we cooked it up back then -- or we had people looking up 42 year old quotes so we could recycle them. But alas the "no fingerprints" campaign wasn't getting the job done -- so last week they took the attacks above the surface for the first time. I am not complaining -- its their call and I agree with Sherry that it was a mistake on their part that only brought more attention to the Dean candidacy -- and has finally surfaced the true reasons behind their efforts.
If you are an idealist like me -- you have to believe this is all out of grave concern for the future of our country.
Go Joe! You got 'em running scared.
On the draft, for one thing:
according to this article in Vermont's alternative weekly, Dean got the medical deferment when he was only a sophomore in college and could have been eligible for a a student deferment for several more years.
http://www.sevendaysvt.com/-this.../col/
track.html
The Boston Globe's article gives a misleading impression that the ski trip was *right* after the medical deferment, maybe to celebrate it. In fact, according to the Aspen Times article, it was the winter of 1971-2, after Dean graduated from college. That's almost two years later.
http://www.aspentimes.com/apps/p...R&template=art2
This smacks of an opposition campaign's spin (especially that "great time to be a kid" remark--as if Dean knows nothing about the dark side of those years despite his family's tragedy.) It also seems like the same sort of Globe reporting that led them to mistakenly assume Kerry was Irish for a decade.
It's not going to work.
JT, Yes! Millions of us are have had the beejeezus scared out of us regarding the future of our country. I would just like to say, that I am very glad that you are running this campaign and not me. I would be saying, "Look, dorkus! JFK ran 43 years ago, okay? And he won! Right? Unfortunately I am not running that campaign, but I do plan on matching his results!"
You rock! Don't let them pull your tail! Put some peanut butter on theirs.
edit: meant to say, almost three years later (winter of 1968-69; winter of 1971-72)
The Kerry campaign is made up of all the people who ran Gore's campaign, so it's been singularly uninspiring to say the least. Instead of giving us a reason to vote for him (other than "I'm the only one to have served in uniform" and i have my wife's money) and coming up with one decent idea to get people involved, he takes cheapshots at some obscure guy 98% of the country still can't recognize yet.
Tonight i was having dinner at a local restaurant while studying for my econometrics final. I overhear a conversation next to me. This eloquent student is telling his friend why she's gotta consider this really great doctor and governor from VT for president instead of that "loser Kerry you don't know where he stands on anything and only wants you to vote for him because he was in vietnam 30 years ago." I think, a-ha! someone i can recruit for my Students for Dean chapter. I tell him who i am, and ask if he wants to help us out. he smiles and says, "I'm a Republican. I'd die for George Bush. I just think Howard Dean is an awesome guy who should get the nomination." 
i tried to take that as a good omen.
ARG! blogger is wacked! hey west coast people, don't miss the daily show tonight! dean got some major play in the opening monologue.
my post about this will, eventually, post.
BTW, in Jay Leno's monologue tonight, he joked about the debate (nothing specific) and named the four main contenders for the dems: Kerry, Gephard, Dean and Lieberman. Dean has finally arrived. And it's interesting he included Joe but not Edwards.
Give 'em hell, Joe.
Yeah, I missed the daily Show tonight. Can you post what happened?
alex, i've got a blogger post pending and i'm hoping it will show up shortly. gimme a few minutes. if it doesn't show up, i'll post the summary. =)
also, as soon as TDS has the video link up, i'll post it so everyone can see.
Thanks, Anna.
i aim to please!
IHL,
Isn't youth wonderful? It proclaims that it is willing to die for a twisted hallucination, only because it feels so immortal.
Those were the days!
I saw the CNBC interview too. Is it me, or does Dean seem more stiff, serious, uptight, etc. in appearances over the last few weeks than before? If so, even though nobody will listen to a nobody like me, I would remind Dean of Rob Reiner's quote about him: "He's not afraid to lose". Please remain not afraid to lose, if you know what I mean.
Hey all: I just posted this on an older thread way down the page, but this thread seems to be getting the most play, so I might as well put it over here.
Suggestion to the Dean Campaign: Given the number of responses I've seen here (and elsewhere) to Joe Trippi's explanation of the inner-workings of campaigning (e.g., rapid response press releases) in terms of "this is the first time I've taken interest in politics," "this is all very interesting to learn," or "I'm just learning like you guys," perhaps it would be beneficial (it would certainly be interesting) to have a kind of "Campaigning 101" feature on either this blog or the official Dean pages. It's always interesting to read Kate's (i think that's her name) day-by-day journal as to what Gov. Dean did on the campaign trail that day, but I think it would be equally interesting to have a look at how things are done from the technical side (for instance, putting out a response ad, radio station appearance, etc.). Perhaps a campaign volunteer close enough to the campaign could do some of this type of posting.
Anyway, just my two cents as I break from working on my dissertation, so maybe this isn't feasible an idea as it may seem in my scattered mind.
I think that's a really good idea, Ziggy.
Thanks, Chase!
I think Katherine's research above should be turned into a new episode of the Dean Defense Forces.
SOMEONE is going to break this issue soon, we need to be ready for it.
I've put some information about the deferrment issue up on my blog. It's based on conversations we've been having on the Dean Coffeehouse mailing list.
Go here if you want to read more about it.
The short and simple of it is that there are no facts to support the suggestion that Dean got a sweetheart deferrment deal (i.e., paid of a doctor to give him a bogus deferrment) but that this is a charge that CAN be used in an effective whisper campaign. We have to be prepared for it.
Re: Dean's stiffness in recent appearances. Actually, I think he tends to be stiffer in one-on-one interviews then he is out on the stump. If you have seen the campaign video clips from his appearance on Tim Russert he acquited himself very well in dealing with Russert's attempts to bring him down, but he was very serious throughout the whole interview. I can't recall him smiling once.
Perhaps this is just his style. I liked it, at least in this one instance.