It isn't too surprising. Candidates in Iowa who do well aren't necessarily known well early on. Part of spending all the time in Iowa is getting to know elites who decide the like you and then break for you. They then pull along their friends to house parties for you and other recruitment events.

More important than the numbers, Dean is generating a buzz amongst non-labor activists. That sort of buzz now can turn into hard numbers in a year from now. Because of the extraordinary attention individuals receive, people play candidates off of each other and break late. Dean isn't home free, but that hard work will pay off if he runs a smart campaign. I hear he is attracting good people and seems to understand what Iowa is about.

His big problem will probably be money. With the shortened cycle, money right after a big win might not be enough. He has said to people he can't raise money from except from gay and lesbian activists currently. He needs to turn that around to have a shot coming out of New Hampshire.
archpundit | Email | Homepage | 12.19.02 - 11:34 am | #