04/18/2002 Archived Entry: "A look at the US Senate"

I tend to group Cook and Rothenburg, the mainstreams "non-partisan" pundits, as having a tilt toward the favor of DC establishment, and that happens to be Republican at the moment. Anyway, in his e-mail column, Cook notes Johnson, Wellstone and Carnahan as toss-ups of Democratic seats; and Hutchinson, Smith, and Allard as toss-ups of Republican seats. That, as he has come around to see, is where the similarity ends.

The second-tier Republican challengers that look to develop toss-up races against Democratic incumbents don't look very good. At least not right now. Chambliss is the only one who at this point is in a race that could be considered reading to move in that direction, but it's a tough move. The only other hopes for Lott & Frist are that Ganske moves through his primary unscathed, with an endorsement from Salier, and that the moderate Allen emerges from the NJ primary. The Democrats, in their second-tier, have Pingree, Bradbury, about on par with Chambliss; and Weinberg, Walters also having the ability to emerge. The GOP's Taylor, Cooksey? I'd say they are akin to Tristiani and McPhillips having a shot against Dominici and Sessions. Certainly possible, but not looking very likely.

What's notable here, is how much attention that the DC establishment pundits have given toward Baucus & Landrieu being vulnerable, while Pingree, Bradbury, Chambliss and Weinburg have a much better shot, than do Cooksey or Taylor, at upsetting the incumbent.

The Democrats depth is much stronger, and the GOP is playing more defense.

There are now four open GOP seats. Sanders, Kirk, Bowles, and Clement. It's a good bet that the Democrats win at least one of these. Here's what Cook has to say about the Texas race:

Finally, and most recently, three polls taken before the April 9
Democratic runoff election in Texas showed former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk
running within single digits of GOP state Attorney General John Cornyn
in the Texas race for Gramm's Senate seat. The first was a survey taken
in early February for the Dallas Morning News. It showed Cornyn ahead of
Kirk by 6 points, 43 percent to 37 percent. The second poll, a late
March survey by the Democratic firm of Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal, gave
Cornyn a statistically insignificant, 2-point advantage, 43 percent to
41 percent. The third poll was another Dallas Morning News survey,
conducted April 1-4, that had Kirk ahead of Cornyn by 4 points, 43
percent to 39 percent.

When Gramm retired, few thought Democrats had a legitimate shot at this
seat. Kirk, however, has turned out to be a far more formidable rival to
Cornyn than most had expected. Democrats have fared poorly in Texas over
the past few years, but Kirk is viewed as a moderate and was elected to
two mayoral terms in Dallas with considerable help from Republicans and
the business community. As a result, he reportedly runs well ahead of
the Republican in the Dallas media market, where Democrats usually are
lucky to break even.

Another possible advantage for Kirk is Democratic gubernatorial nominee
and wealthy businessman Tony Sanchez, who has pledged to spend as much
as $30 million of his fortune on the race, including a massive effort to
get Hispanic voters to the polls. Cornyn will be a formidable candidate
-- given his own resume, a head start in fundraising, Bush's blessing in
his home state and Texas' Republican tilt. But it looks as if this Texas
race will be very close -- it is now considered a tossup.

So where I stand right now, looking toward November, is figuring that each party wins one takeover in the toss-ups; and one of the open GOP seats is taken over by a Democrat. I also forecast an upset by one of the Democrats mentioned above. This nets two seats for the Democrats. However, at this point, if the election were today, I would predict Thune as the only takeover in the toss-ups, and for Kirk to win the open seat in Texas, netting an unchanged Senate.