04/30/2002 Archived Entry: "MO, MN, SD: Vulnerable Democratic Senators, not MT, possibly NJ, GA, IA"
Last winter, I had started off with Carnahan ranked as the second most vulnerable Democratic Senator in the Senate 2002 rankings. I took some flack about it back then, but the polls have shown it to have become a tight race. The one thing I look towards as a key indicator in off-year elections is motivation. It is one of the reasons why the party out of the WH usually picks up seats in Congress. That said, MO Republicans want some of their own style of justice, Ashcroft especially, after they lost in 2000, and felt that within St Louis, invalid votes were made. Also, Carnahan has never proved herself on the campaign trail, and will have a tougher than expected re-election battle. A recent independent poll has her up. The poll, by Zogby International, shows Sen. Jean Carnahan, D-Mo., with a slim statewide edge among likely voters - 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent - over her Republican rival, former Rep. Jim Talent.
Wellstone, while I still think is favored to win, is having a tougher battle to garner support. A key moment here will be Ventura's Independence Party convention in a couple of months. If they are able to present a full slate of legislative, congressional, and statewide candidates, it will change the dynamic of the Senate race. Most likely, the Independence Party would put up a fiscal conservative, moderate social, candidate. That hurts Coleman a lot more than Wellstone. If that doesn't occur, then this is probably going to be a toss-up. To date, the GOP polls show Coleman ahead, and the Democrat polls show Wellstone ahead. There have been no independent polls in the last month, but previously, all four of them had shown Wellstone ahead by 1-4%
Johnson has the toughest draw out of the three vulnerables. You just take a look at the numbers, and they point toward a Thune victory. What this will come down to is GOTV. Johnson will have to have a stronger turnout than Thune, otherwise he's toast. Daschle will ultimately make the case for Johnson to the voters of SD, and that will probably decide the outcome. This race is also a warm-up for the 2004 election, when, by then Rep., Jankalow challenges Daschle for his Senate seat. No independent polls out on this one yet.
With the possible exception of a development in NJ, no other Democratic Senator appears vulnerable. A recent poll out of MT has Baucus up 57-24 over Taylor. That puts this race in the field of MI's Levin, who has a 53-27 over Raczkowski. In NJ, of the three left, Allen/Forrester/Matheussen, both Allen and Forrester are from the southern part of the state, and will split votes there; and neither of them will have the funds to compete with Forrester, especially out of NY, for the northern part of the state. Forrester should win this primary. Allen would be the most formidable candidate against Toricelli. Cleland in GA, Harkin in IA, they not really on the radar right now as vulnerable, but things could change some here in a few months.
Replies: 7 comments
The conventional wisdom is that St. Louis Metro or KC Metro candidates don't win statewide office in MO. This is in favor of Carnahan, a small-town native, and against Talent, formerly the US representative of the wealthy suburbs of St. Louis (district 2). Talent lost the last statewide race by a hair, the Gov'ship in 2000. We MOans tend to feel more warm and fuzzy for non-airbrushed candidates, and Talent's image consultant would do well to let him go bald and grey.
Posted by Nancy, St. Louis, MO @ 05/02/2002 05:11 PM PST
I am from the western part of the state. Talent is not particularly well-known here. The race in Missouri is between one's favorite grandmother and Eddie Haskell. The Democrats in Missouri will be very energized in November. I don't understand the polls showing this as tight as it is.
Posted by Bob @ 05/02/2002 07:52 PM PST
Nancy, one of the reasons why Talent lost was due women voting against him, and also that he was unable to win a majority outside of St. Louis area. Carnahan has moved to increase her presence in the metro areas, especially in St. Louis.
Bob, the Democrats should become energized, this is the main race in the state. The republicans are energized, and would be willing to steal this election, if Ashcroft makes it possible. I am not sure why it is close either, given the candidates.
But the GOP pumped in a million bucks for Talent's name ID for the Gov race, and they badly want to win The polls showing Talent ahead are nothing but GOP push polls of public opinion. All of the indy polls have shown Carnahan ahead, by about a 5-6% average.
I think she will find it very difficult campaigning, as it will dredge up strong memories, perhaps overwhelming at times.
I have an easier time seeing Ashcroft break the law and campaign against her, than I do seeing her lose this election, but given the first is possible, so is the second.
Posted by Jerome(myDD) @ 05/02/2002 08:35 PM PST
I have seen four polls on this race (Jan, Talent campaign; Jan, Carnahan campaign; Apr, NRSC; Apr, Zogby). That's both sides of the aisle, plus an "independent" poll. Two show Talent leads (2-4%), two show Carnahan leads (5-6%). In none of these polls did the incumbent break 50% - always a bad sign.
The good news for Jean is she has proven to be a powerful fundraiser. And she was smart enough to vote for the tax cut, which would have (in my view) seriously hurt her re-election chances.
No matter how you cut it, this race is going down to the wire. But if a corrupt judge allows polls in Dem districts to remain open extra hours, then Jean will win. If not, you pick 'em.
Posted by Coop @ 05/08/2002 12:42 PM PST
Your poll info is correct, after seeing what some of these partisan outfits are putting out there to push public opinion this far out of the race, I put ZIP credibility in them. The only service they have for the pundits, is to offset themselves.
Zogby has probably set the bench mark that Talent has to work to get over. It's tough, but doable, especially since the GOP is more motivated here than elsewhere-- they have stewed their ills well (as your tail end of the post shows), and that could make the difference.
Posted by myDD @ 05/08/2002 02:35 PM PST
I dont see why you might think it is unusual for polls in this race to be close. Carnahan has brought little pork back to the state, and for someone who has never been elected that makes her vulnerable. Plus, she is unproven on the campaign trail. Talent was in the house for 8 years remember, and has much more experience on the trail and as a clutch fundraiser. Carnahan has the early lead, but I think the numbers will turn toward Talent as the summer unfolds. Worst case for the GOP would be Carahan eeking out the win with help from St. Louis shenanigans part duex, but even then she will have lost much of her sympathy appeal and will be vulnerable to lawsuits/dirty politics attacks and likely lose to someone like Rep. Emerson in the next cycle.
Posted by A Missourian at Northwestern @ 05/21/2002 11:59 AM PST
I agree, Emerson would be a much stronger challenger than is Talent. But he was higher on the totem poll this round. They'ed invested a million bucks into him, and it was easier to work with his already high name recognition than getting Emerson's up there.
Posted by myDD @ 05/21/2002 01:55 PM PST
