05/02/2002 Archived Entry: "US House: TX 5th, AL 3rd-- Two Toss-ups that Slight Lean Dem, and why."

TX 5th: Chapman is a popular Dallas area judge for the Dems, has been re-elected multiple times. Hensarling is a political operative, one of Gramms ducks in a row. Chapman was ahead in a Dem poll last year. But even with a competitive GOP primary, and Chapman having no real competition, Chapman got way more votes:
US HOUSE 5th:
(D)Chapman 19,300
(R)Hensarling 10,600
(D)other 8,000
(R)other 9,000
Chapman shares the name with a very popular Dallas DJ, so when Hensarling (who has very less name ID) starts to rip into Chapman (and he will), he might face a backlash. We'll see then if Chapman can fight back. Toss-up, Slight Lean Dem at this time.

AL 3rd: Bush won this narrowly, but it's Alabama, and I don't give much weight to how much Bush or Gore carried a district by when it's as low as 5%. The district has become even stronger Democrat with the redistricting passed.

The passed plan boosts the percentage of Democratic voters in the 3rd District from 51.1% now to 57%, based on results of the 2000 presidential election and 1998 elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

The percentage of black residents in the 3rd District would jump from 25.3% to 32.7%. Blacks in Alabama tend to vote heavily Democratic.

The likely Democratic nominee is ex-state party chair/1998 nominee Joe Turnham; And on the GOP side: St. Rep. Mike Rogers.

Turnham got 42% against Riley in '98, with 7% more black voters in the district, he starts out with 49% of the vote. I would say he's the favorite, a "faith and values" democrat that could win in Alabama, he's also a strong environmentalist. He will probably face Rogers in the general, it will be close, but I think Turnham is going to win. Toss-up, Slight Lean Dem.