05/03/2002 Archived Entry: "US House reading"

Here's is some political junkie reading for the weekend on a few US House races.

Here were my notes as I wrote along as reading the piece, on where I disagreed or fillled in the gaps (he misses out on a lot of races too, like this one):

Georgia 3rd district-- Byrd favored for the Dem nomination, and "lean" over Clay in the general.

Alabama 3rd-- Turnham is going to win the Dem nomination. He got 42% against Riley last election, and the added voters to the districts are mostly black. The percentage of black residents in the 3rd District would jump from 25.3% to 32.7% (that's 7% of mostly Democratic voters). Blacks in Alabama tend to vote heavily Democratic. I do not know what his "generic ballot poll" is. The redistricting The passed plan boosts the percentage of Democratic voters in the 3rd District from 51.1% now to 57%, based on results of the 2000 presidential election and 1998 elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general. Basically, Turnham got 42% last time and he starts with 49% this time, it's his to lose.

Georgia 11th-- Darden did have DC support, but that's it. Kahn is going to win the Dem primary, and is favored over Gingrey.

West Virginia 2nd-- Capito will beat Humphreys by a larger margin than 2000, against Workman it would be as close as 2000 was.

MI 3rd-- Pickering will win with this fed intervened plan in 2002, but in 2004, after the partisan political hacks in the DOJ will have had to finally approve the state's redistricting, it will be Shows that has the advantage.

MD 2nd-- It's not even close. Ruppersberger had a 7% poll lead over Bentley in the old Ehrlich district, which would equate to about 15-20% in the new district.

CO 7th-- Feeley will win this one. Sure Gore only took it by 2000 (not that he even contested this), but add in the Nader voters, and it's an 7-10% advantage for the Dems in this new district. As he notes, a weak GOP field.

Nevada 1st-- "Democrats hold a 35,000-vote advantage in party registration... , the incumbent has raised roughly $800,000 more than her challenger" End of story, add in Yucca and it doesn't matter, Berkley likely.

NM 2nd-- Latinos are going to be voting in this district more than in the past, with Richardson & Tristiani (who is running Spanish ads out of El Paso). Dems hold party advantage already, and it's going to become moreso in 2002. Lean Smith (the mayor).

Nevada 3rd -- Again, 5 letter, Y-U-C-C-A the GOP death kneel in Nevada.

IN 2nd-- "but the well-connected Ms. Thompson is certain to wage an expensive, negative campaign." Sounds to me like the author is getting his talking points from the GOP. Nevertheless, Leans Chocola.

Arizona 1st -- Hay is likely GOP nominee-- A conservative reactionary on the AM radio dial as well. Udall vs Duval is a tough one to call, either likely to win this over the wingnut.

Iowa 4th -- Norris has a lot of the party backing. But I think that the most likely race where the Dems would takeover a seat is the 1st, where Hutchinson would beat Nussle (if she can win the primary). I would rank Thomas over Leach as more probable than Norris over Latham, but right now, I slight lean all 3 to the GOP.

SD at-large-- Janklow easy. It's his warm-up for facing Daschle in 2004.

New Hampshire 1st -- Right now, it's Clark's to lose. Depends on one is the last one with a chair in the GOP musical primary, as she is not a shoo-in, but favored until it's clear who her opponent is.

Maine 2nd -- Michaud is becoming the more likely Dem nominee, and would win easily in the general.

Connecticut 2nd -- Courtney is going to be the Dem nominee. I lean this to Simmons, due to his anti-terrorist credentials that he will tout. With Johnson beating Maloney, CT will be the one NE state that the GOP beats the Democrats soundly in.

If you still want more, check out Hotline's Editor-in-Chief Chuck Todd, his March 13th to April 3rd entries.

Replies: 1 Comment

I got this email today on the open 7th in TN:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

http://www.haydenforcongress.org/

The official online campaign headquarters of Omer Hayden, Democrat for U.S. Congress 7th-District, Tennessee, was officially launched today.

"This is a chance for Omer Hayden to take his crusade to recapture the 7th Congressional District to a new level," said Andrew Pritt, Hayden's Campaign Manager. "We have even added a new email at Ask_Omer@haydenforcongress.org/ to allow his constituents another medium for him to communicate with him."

Hayden also, according to recent private polling, is in a strong position to recapture the 7th Congressional District.

HAYDEN for U.S. CONGRESS
P.O. Box 429
Arlington, TN. 38002-0492
901.371.0203
http://www.haydenforcongress.org/

"Putting Tennesseans First!"

Posted by myDD @ 05/05/2002 01:43 PM PST