05/10/2002 Archived Entry: "House races, WV 2nd; Gov races, MA, OR"

I'll stick with Captio having a small edge if she gets a re-match against Humphries, but if she's pitted against Workman, this one goes into the Dems column. Workman's only achilles heel in this race might be that she's so used to kicking the butts of men in campaigns, that she may find it hard to run against a woman. I expect Rockefeller, who is up for re-election against a rightwinger, to run the statewide campaign for the Democrats, providing the margin of victory for Workman, over Capito. But that's if Workman can best Humphries.

I have been meaning to get around to updating the Governor 2002 webpage for some time now... it's coming along. As I expected, Romney's gold showing is looking a bit more like bronze now. I found it hard to believe that Republicans thought they had this aced with Mitt. Look, 60% of the voters rejected him when he ran for the Senate in 1988. Maybe they forgot why, but they are now starting to remember, and the lure is starting to wear off, as the latest poll numbers show.

What a laugher seeing Mannix refer to his "broken down car" as I think it's a good metaphor for his campaign. Were he not a former Democrat, the social conservatives might show up for him strong. But they appear more concerned with winning than voting on principle this year in Oregon, and either Saxton or Roberts will win. The Saxton commercial is very good. If Saxton can stay even with Roberts outside of Portland, he will win the GOP primary, and his 'Albany values' theme might do the trick for him, a very good homespun but slick ad. Roberts is more slicker with the talk, but is being out flanked here by Saxton, and that might prove the difference. Stein look short on cash, but cash is only good for TV commercials now, and she's put it all into infrastructure that is working to GOTV. The ballots are already in the voters hands, and the early beavers have already voted. So is Kulongoski perhaps showing up with a lot more money, but a little to late? The Democratic nominee will be decided in Portland, and a few other counties. Stein is counting carrying Portland decisively, and winning in Clatsop, Jackson, and Lane county, based on their progressive voters. If she does that, she's going to win. If Kulongoski can stay even in Portland, it's his to lose, as he's got the rural support, based more on Kitzhaber's endorsement more than anything else. I don't see a scenario for Hill to win. What's interesting is to guess as to who he takes votes away from as his percentage increases. Mostly Kulongoski I would guess, as he's the most conservative of the three Democrats. However, where would those voters go if they decided they didn't like Hill afterall, back to Kulongoski, or to Stein. This ad, with a slam in there for Kulongoski as well, is making the case for the latter.