05/18/2002 Archived Entry: "OR Gov race"

The Oregonian/KATU came out with a second poll, showing similar results, Kulongoski with a lead, and the GOP in a toss-up situation. If we combine the two polls (for a lower statistical moe), adding in the leans, we get:

GOP
Saxton-29%
Mannix- 27%
Roberts-21%
Undecideds-20%

Democrat
Kulongoski- 40%
Hill- 23%
Stein- 21%
Undecideds-15%

At the time of the second poll, about 20% of the ballots had been mailed in, considering the balance of partisan ballots vs Independents who don't vote for the primary nominations, roughly half, maybe more, of the ballots would have already been mailed. What happens with the mail-in ballots, is there is a rush of returns the first week(May 1-6th), and then also a rush the last few days (now), and in-between then, probably just buyers remorse and procrastination.

Kulongoski probably has the Democrat nomination wrapped up, but I wouldn't count out Stein's GOTV campaign making an upset. Mannix appears to have benefited from the GOP primary focusing on the social conservative issue of banning abortion. It looks like Saxton captured the GOP imagination, but that some were then taking a second look at his moderate social stances and moving to the principled conservative Mannix or undecided, rather than back to the have-it-all-ways Roberts, who has been falling in support. Looks like it's Saxton's (which might mean the Constitution party becomes an issue), with Mannix making a late surge (and borrowing lots of money too).