05/19/2002 Archived Entry: "NJ 5th US House race, Sumers vs Garrett"

I currently have the NJ-5th US House race in the slightly lean column, toward the GOP. I expect Garrett to win the GOP nomination, and he will face the Democrat Sumers.

Garrett, in one of those GOP intraparty conservative vs moderate-incumbent contests, had challenged Roukema twice in past GOP primaries, coming within 4 percent of knocking off Roukema in both 1996 and 2000. The district seems to have been made a bit more Republican (less than a 1% change), but moderate Republican in redistricting. This district went for Schundler over McGreevey. 52-47 percent, largely due to Schundler winning ~65 percent in Sussex and Warren counties. However, Bergen county voted for McGreevey with 57 percent.

Sumers has a slight Repubican advantage to overcome, but Garrett might make it easier for her, especially if Sumers manages to get Roukema to stay neutral, or coup, endorse her. Garrett has a knack for being principled to the extreme right, endorsed by the Christian Coalition, the Club for Growth, and the National Rifle Association:

Garrett, for example, was one of a handful of legislators to vote against a 1997 measure requiring country clubs to offer the same benefits to women as they do men - a bill initiated when a Nutley woman complained that her club barred her from playing golf. "You and I may disagree that a private club discriminates," Garrett said in explaining his vote. "Then you and I don't have to be a member of that club. But if one group wants to be separate and apart, they have a right to do so."

With a multitude of a range of bills that Garrett was "nearly alone in opposing," (Like this: [he] "once cast the lone dissenting vote against required HMO coverage of mammograms, the screenings designed to catch early signs of breast cancer"), Sumers has plenty of opportunities to show Garrett's extremism. If so, this is a race that might not go the way of the numbers... let's have a look at those.

Much has been made of the fact that Schundler beat McGreevey in this district, and that's noted. Still, we are looking at 5% here, in a Democratic trending region. In Bush vs Gore, it was very close. Though in a two-way race, the breakdown was 54-46 percent in favor of Bush. The actual percentages for the candidates for the past two elections were very close. This is not a strong "Republican district" we are looking at here. It's got an Independent swing to it, and is trending Democratic:

2000 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 150,686 (51%)
Gore (D) 134,051 (45%)
Nader (G) 9,464 (3%)

1996 Presidential Vote
Dole (R) 127,286 (47%)
Clinton (D) 115,060 (42%)
Perot (I) 23,642 (9%)

Waiting in the wings for the ultra-conservative Garrett is Democrat Anne Sumers, an ophthalmologist from Upper Saddle River and former Roukema supporter who switched parties earlier this year and is unopposed in the primary. Garrett is from the less populated, more conservative western part of the 5th District. Sumers as an 18-year resident of the more populated Bergen County has a real shot here.

From NJ: Three-fifths of its population is clustered in Bergen; to the west, little subdivisions set amid the lakes of western Passaic County are filling up with young families; farther west are once rural, now more or less suburban Sussex and Warren counties. Politically, this area has long been solidly Republican, although like all of New Jersey it moved toward Democrats in the 1990s; it was one of the state's two districts carried by Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000.

From TNR: In 1988 it went for the elder George Bush over Michael Dukakis 58 percent to 41 percent; in 2000 Al Gore defeated the younger Bush there 55 percent to 42 percent. Likewise, in 1993 and 1997, Bergen County voted for moderate Republican Governor Christine Todd Whitman, but in 2001 it went for McGreevey against conservative Brett Schundler. And while moderate Republican Representative Marge Roukema--60 percent of whose district lies in Bergen County--managed to weather the pro-Democrat tilt (winning reelection by 65 percent to 30 percent in 2000), her successor may not be so lucky.

Here are a few other articles on the race: