05/22/2002 Archived Entry: "Clatsop County Elections"

A Progressive Sweep

I stayed up late last night awaiting the local Clatsop county election numbers. In particular, the races for the 5 persons holding the County Commissioners positions. There were three very good candidates to replace three lousy incumbents:

And sometimes a seemingly "small" issue galvanizes the public and refocuses interest in local government. An example was the recent public hearing and votes about Sunset Beach by the Board of County Commissioners. In this instance, residents saw that some Commissioners don't know or don't care to follow state and local land use regulations and that some were willing to sell public land -- YOUR land at Sunset Beach -- without even knowing its appraised value. The Commissioners were evidently NOT prepared....

Fortunately for the County, three exceptional candidates want to lead Clatsop County:
Gaebel, Miltenberger, and Westbrook.

Of the three (all women) that were running to replace the "business-(golf courses & condominiums)-first" commissioners(all men), Lylla Gaebel was the one who I thought would have the toughest race, in the 1st District. The commissioners in Districts 2 and 4 were not up for re-election-- besides, they voted against selling Sunset Beach to private ownership.

Early last night, we saw the results showing that in the 3rd District, Janet Miltenberger placed first of five candidate, with 44 percent, and will be favored in the run-off against the incumbent who got 36 percent. In the 5th, Helen Westbrook (whom I asked before the election, "why do you seem so confident?") demolished the incumbent 2:1, getting 66 percent of the vote. So already, the progressives had taken control of the County Commissioner positions, holding 4 of the 5 District positions, leaving the 1st District still up in the air. I'd previously written a letter in support of Gaebel, it was very close.

At 10 PM, there were only 8 votes separating the two candidates, with Gaebel just barely ahead of the incumbent, but short .5 of 50 percent (to avoid a run-off) of the vote at 49.97, with just one more batch of votes to come in. At midnight the last batch came in, and with all the votes in, Gaebel is ahead by 15 votes with 50.16% of the vote, with a vote recount apparently in the works (not to worry, this isn't Bush country).
((Update: No change in recount, Gaebel wins!))

The communities conservation plan for the public land (instead of Golf Courses & Condominiums) is for the Lewis & Clark trail to now proceed:

Rep. Elizabeth Furse of Oregon has submitted legislation to expand the boundaries of Fort Clatsop National Memorial. H.R. 3378 would allow the National Park Service to proceed with implementation of the trail-- linkage would be established between the Fort and the Pacific Ocean, thereby fulfilling the Congressional directive contained in the Memorial's enabling legislation; approximately 963 acres would be added to the Memorial to provide the Fort-Ocean trail corridor and to ensure the protection of the scenic and natural resources of lands immediately surrounding the Fort.

Replies: 9 comments

What is your opinion of the Hutchinson Primary in Arkansas. I believe that the opponent garnered closed to 25%. From your analysis in the Senate page, it would mean that Pryor is the likely winner. What do you think?

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 05/22/2002 06:25 PM PST

Representative Jim Bob Duggar (Republican) 9,687 22%
Sen. Tim Hutchinson (Republican) 34,901 78%

Here's what I said:

A 10-20% total of the primary vote for Duggar would be a blow to Hutchinson's chances, but not fatal. Anything above 25% is a dire warning that the social conservatives have rejected him...

So you can see, it's right in that mid-range where either direction is a possibility.

As far as GOTV goes, the Dems look that they are doing it much more, with 100k more voters in the primaries at the Gov level.

Posted by myDD @ 05/22/2002 06:54 PM PST

I think that Hutchinson is the most vulnerable senate candidate, even more vulnerable than the GOP candidates in NH. Meanwhile please check out Roll Call today. Cornyn and Kirk are in a very close race...this in a GOP state means that the Republicans are in serious trouble elsewhere.

Posted by G.C.Raj @ 05/23/2002 09:19 AM PST

I agree, I currently have Hutchinson losing as ranked #1 as the likely takeover for the Dems. That's not likely to change either, based on what I've seen so far. In NH, Shaheen is looking better and better, with her numbers against Sununu getting tighter as well. There are more rumors out now, post-Guliani endorsing Smith- that Sununu is going to go back to his House seat instead of the Senate race.

Posted by myDD @ 05/23/2002 10:41 AM PST

Do you think that the GOP is hurting itself by selecting candidates that are simply too conservative for the electorates that they are trying to win over? Simon in Ca. Governor race being the best example recently, but elsewhere, in the TN, NC, IA Senate races, there are conservative candidates (Bryant, Snyder, and Salier) that appear to be getting traction, thereby potentially harming Republican prospects in those states. What do you reckon?

Posted by UK Dem @ 05/23/2002 10:51 AM PST

UK Dem,

Exactly, check out the article on the OR primary I just wrote, don't you think that fits the bill?

http://www.mydd.com/politics/myDDindex/OR2002pri.html

Saxton or Roberts could have won, Mannix won't win the general. The Southern Strategy is coming back to haunt the GOP.

Posted by myDD @ 05/23/2002 02:31 PM PST

It sounds like exactly the same syndrome - it looks as though the Republicans have just thrown away a good chance at grabbing another Pacific Coast state mansion by nominating the wrong candidate (although top marks to Gray Davis for dispatching Riordan).

Conservatives over here are in deep trouble - they are slowly, but painfully, moving in the right direction, towards a more liberal social policy, but it will take at least another Parliament.

Forgive my ignorance, but what was the Southern Strategy? Who's idea was it, and when did it come into play?

Posted by UK Dem @ 05/24/2002 02:07 AM PST

Here is a text of Jeffords speech that I put on a webpage last year when he left the GOP. If you look into the links on the left sidebar, some fascinating and detailed pieces of information, you find out about the Southern Strategy. In fact, this is it's one year celebration, so I will make an entry about this today.
http://www.mydd.com/politics/myDDindex/jeffords052401.html

Posted by myDD @ 05/24/2002 11:25 AM PST

Thanks very much - I only really became interested in U.S. politics after 2000's Presidential election - I call myself a Democrat because I think Bush's human rights record as Texas Governor is appalling. Al Gore didn't seem like the most exciting of candidates, but I liked him an awful lot better than GWB.

Posted by UK Dem @ 05/25/2002 10:12 AM PST