06/06/2002 Archived Entry: "US House Races, NJ 5th"

A big question now is what Roukema does. Asked before the primary if she would consider endorsing Sumers if Garrett were the nominee, she said, "I'm not going to entertain that thought."

Rothenburg came out with a "true" toss-up list today. Only 9 races, it's defintely incomplete. What's absolutely baffling is that he equates as "admittedly competitive races" the AL 3rd and the CA 18th. I haven't the time to research and see right now, but my educated guess is that he is predicting Democrats would need to take all of those toss-ups to takeover the majority, but again, he is being blinded by the right (again) and not seeing the complete picture. Rogers and Montieth paying their respects, with a Rothenburg office-call, clearly reaps the benefits of moving the races up, from toss-up and likely Dem, to lean GOP and lean Dem respectively.

Replies: 5 comments

You are out of your mind on Al-03. Look at the numbers in a county by county breakdown. Ain't gonna happen jack. Same holds true for NJ-05. With divisisve primaries in the past there, the republican voters coalesced behind the evntual candidate. Same holds true here. You have much better arguments in other places (NOT NV-03)... Rogers is going to crush Turnham.

Posted by CV @ 06/07/2002 05:10 AM PST

You are all hyperbole CV, look at the facts:

The new AL:3rd boosts the percentage of Democratic voters in the 3rd District from 51.1% to 57%, based on results of the 2000 presidential election and 1998 elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

The percentage of black residents in the 3rd District jumped from 25.3% to 32.7%

Turnham got 42% against Riley in '98, with 7.5% more black voters in the district, he starts out with 49% of the vote.

The primary numbers confirmed this. Turnham is a great match for the district, a conservative religious Democrat, he only needs about 25% of the white vote to win, this leans Democratic.

NJ-5th, what are you talking about? This doesn't have to do with competitive primaries, but with Garrett's extreme ideology. The district has trended Dem about 2% every cycle since the early 90's. Garrett would have about a 4% edge, but that is gone with his extreme positions, and Sumers moderate stances and former-Republican standing.

Posted by myDD @ 06/07/2002 09:52 AM PST

I do not have any idea what Stuart Rothenberg is thinking in listing AL-03 as leans republican. It is clearly a Democratic district. Rothenberg notes Mike Rogers poll that has him leading by 2. However he fails to note that the AEA has done a poll that shows Turnham up by 8 and Turnham's own poll has him up by four. Also another thing that is going to help Turnham in this race is the fact that Joe has been very strong on environmental issues. With the district facing many environmental problems such as the incinerator in Anniston and the water wars Turnham is very well positioned with a strong in environmental message. Also Turnham is the only person in the Democratic Party that has the possibility of winning Lee County which is the largest county in the district and a very republican area. Turnham's father had been a legislator there for 40 years and Turnham himself has done numerous public service projects for the community and Auburn University. This is going to be a Turnham victory.

Posted by Derrick @ 06/13/2002 01:54 PM PST

Thanks for the confirming info Derrick, if you see any of those polls online, sen me the link.

Posted by myDD @ 06/13/2002 02:22 PM PST

Cook is a lot smarter than Rothenburg, and sees the race as a toss-up. Rogers porbably visited Rothenburg, and that's why he saying his line of bs:

http://www.cookpolitical.com/display.cfm?section=political&edit_id=195

Posted by myDD @ 06/13/2002 02:35 PM PST