06/09/2002 Archived Entry: "Gephardt, Democratic Speaker, 2004"

An important look at the Democratic House leadership is in National Journal this week by Cohen, After Gephardt.

It does look like the looming showdown between Pelosi and Frost is going to happen. I think the odds go to Pelosi considerably if the Democrats remain in the minority. If they takeover the majority, then Frost has the edge, depending on how large a majority it is. If it's more than 5 seats, Pelosi may be the next House Speaker. It's not the votes, she has way more than Frost. It's the conservative Democrats, like Cramer and Hall, that might vote for Hastart instead, that could tip the balance toward Frost. This would be ironic, as Pelosi would without a doubt become the minority leader if the Democrats fail to takeover the majority in 5 months. From there, she'd be very likely to become the Speaker within another cycle or two at the most. However, if the Democrats win by a small slim margin, and Frost squeaks in, via the conservative democrats kingpin position, the Pelosi may have to wait quite a bit longer.

Gephardt seems to be all about the past and missed opportunities. He probably wishes he'd run against Gore in 2000, we know he thinks he should have run in 1992, and of course, 1988. With Gore and Gephardt the likely front-runners, it made me think that Dean, if he gets traction, would be compared to Dukakis by the detractors... ugh. Say though, that both Gephardt and Gore decide not to run. Gore because the establishment backing is non-existent, Gephardt because he wants to be the Speaker. With that happening, a vacuum ensues at the top-tier, led by Lieberman, Kerry, and Edwards, the Senate trio. Dean would easily step up to those candidates... but wait, I'm a little ahead of myself, Dean is going to announce his candidacy in 7 months, let's see if he registers in the polls by that time.

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Also watch out for Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, if he pulls off a big win. If the Dems do not win in 2004, take a close look at the incoming Democratic governors...Rendell, may be. But, dont rule out Barrett in Wisconsin or someone such as Holden of Missouri in 2008.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/11/2002 06:28 PM PST