06/11/2002 Archived Entry: "Primary elections in SC, ME; NJ Senate poll; MA Gov"
8:30 PM
In SC, results show that Peeler and Sanford will be heading into a runoff. With 70% of the votes in, they are within 1% of each other. In Maine, reporting with 77% in, Cianchette is strongly ahead of Libby, by a 2:1 margin. For the 2nd District house seat, the Democrat Michaud leads Longly by about 10%, and Raye has a slim 200 vote lead over Woodcock for the GOP.
The GOP would benefit by having Sanford running against Hodges, alongside Graham vying for the open Senate seat. SC Republicans would have a very strong ticket. Once again, the Democrats show their pragmatic side, nominating the conservative Democrat, Michaud, who will be favored to replace Baldacci in the House.
Peeler and Sanford are expected to move to the run-off for the GOP Gov nomination in SC. Peeler will probably get about 10% more, if the polls are correct. In Maine, Michaud is who I've seen as the favorite, due to his strong Union backing. It's pretty wide open though, a Free for All. I have guessed Cianchette over Libby for the GOP Gov nomination, not that it matters, this is Baldacci's to lose.
Helms sounds like he's finished from being on the Senate floor for now, sounds pretty serious, hooked up on a ventilator for weeks at a time. A folksy story on Bowles too, who's running a good campaign so far.
Not much of a race yet in NJ, but Torcelli is below 50%, so it's still in play:
NJ Senate:
Torricelli, a first-term Democrat, led 43 percent to 29 percent among registered voters, with 21 percent not sure who they'll vote for in the November election. If those "leaning" toward one candidate are included, then Torricelli leads 48 percent to 31 percent, with 14 percent still undecided.
Vennochi can't resist the Clinton digs, but gets the substance right. It's about Romney's dishonesty that makes this so politically damaging.
Replies: 5 comments
A Baldacci blowout on November 5 could have coattail effect if the races in Maine 2nd remains tight. The same would hold true if the Senate race gets tighter. Meanwhile, Torch is in trouble in New Jersey. However, if he manages to get the voters to focus on Forrester's abortion stand, he may pull it off. Any incumbent under 50 means trouble. The same is true of Hutchinson in AR, Allard in CO. Smith or Sununu in NH or for that matter Kirk in TX and Smith in OR. Watch if the numbers remain under 50 by the beginning of October..if so bad times ahead for the incumbents.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/11/2002 03:57 PM PST
A poll by the GOP in NJ fifth district shows Garrett under 50% against Summers. However, the GOP covers this up and touts that Summers is in trouble. But, the fact remains that over 20% of the district is undecided and this is a GOP heavy district. What is your opinion?
http://www.rollcall.com/pages/politics/atr/
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/13/2002 06:37 AM PST
POS has no credibility at all, I ignore them. They are basically trying to quelch fundraising efforts for Sumers. I think she'd start out about 4% down.
Posted by myDD @ 06/13/2002 07:49 AM PST
Is that a Republican Polling Firm similar to the crooked Tarrance Group led by Ed Goeas? However, even if it is...Garret is under 50%, the same argument that GOP is using about Torricelli, and that spells trouble in the GOP district. Perhaps the GOP women who generally vote GOP are not warming up to the anti-abortion Garrett? What is your opinion? Did the district go for McGreevy last year? That election result may give us some clues.
Posted by G.C.Raj @ 06/13/2002 09:38 AM PST
Here's the post on how past votes in the 5th have gone, it's trending Dem, would start with about a 4% generic advantage for the GOP:
http://www.mydd.com/archives/00000090.htm
POS is worse than Tarrance, they won't even back it with a name.
Posted by myDD @ 06/13/2002 02:40 PM PST
