06/16/2002 Archived Entry: "Texas congressional races- 5th, 23rd; Hall & the next Speaker"

Texas congressional races- 5th, 23rd; Hall & the next Speaker

I've been looking over the data on the Texas congressional districts this AM, taking a look at party registrations, demographics, and voting trends, and doing analysis on a couple of competitive elections. It's a long write-up, so I'll put the rest into the extended format:

I got an interesting note concerning recent primary results in Texas. For primaries, campaigns usually work off "likely voters" whom have voted in the previous election, or 2 out of the last 3 elections, or 4 out of the last 5... So, in the recent Texas Democratic primaries, about 20% of their primary voters (particularly in the runoff) as coming from the "suspended" list (which generally consists of people who haven't voted in two cycles.) , mostly blacks, which would explain perhaps the polling errors that occurred during the primary. Combined with the large number of latinos that will be voting for the first time, the result for now is that polling numbers in Texas substantially undercount probable Democratic voters. So, I discount

TX 5th:
According to sources, Chapman is up by 4% in polling numbers. Hensarling has got quite a machine ready to put into action though, and will most likely attack Chapman's Judicial record, as being soft of crime. Whether or not Chapman can win this seat will depend in large part to how he responds to Hensarling's attacks. Hensarling doesn't have a record himself, having himself only been a political operative for the GOP. Ads for the race will come out of the expensive Dallas mk't, and be competing with the Senate, Gov, and other statewide races for voters attention. Turnout will be key in the race. Less than 40% of registered voters voting is likely. the 5th CD has 30% black and latino VAP, making up 34% of the general population, that's the trend. Bush is very strong in the district, which tipped the two-party totals to 60-40 in favor of Republicans. Bush doesn't like the idea of having to campaigning and defending the Republicans in Texas, but that's probably what Hensarling will need in this race if his negative attacks on Chapman don't stick. Looking at the variables of the race, it seems like one where Chapman has a good shot, having won a number of Dallas County elections. He'll depend on high-turnout from Sanchez and Kirk, and an ineffectual Hensarling. Though the former is probable, Hensarling's broadside on Chapman may work.

TX 23rd:
This is a top-tier match-up, with Ceullar one of the best chances in the nation for a Democrat to upset an incumbent Republican, Bonilla. It's one of the most even districts in the state, splitting 53.6 to 46.4 in the '98 statewide elections. 63% of the VAP is latino, most of the white population centered near San Antonio, where Bonilla lives. 107k voted in the last mid-term election. There are 280K latino's eligible to vote. In the '98 election, the percentage of those voting in Spanish was 53% The map of the 23rd District shows it to snake along the Texas-Mexico border, from Loredo to nearly El Paso. If Sanchez is going to be competitive against Perry, it will in large part depend upon his GOTV from this region, and that will benefit Ceullar. They are both from Laredo, the second-fastest-growing city in the US. In '98, Cuellar's home base produced only about 20,000 votes; Bonilla's home base, 38,000. Laredo's Webb County is one of two population anchors of the district with about 193,000 people. The other is northwest San Antonio and Bexar County with about 173,000 people.... Bonilla initially won against a prison-bound incumbent and until now has never faced a political heavyweight. Bonilla is vulnerable in this race.

After looking over these two races, I am inclined to restate my position, giving a slight lean to Hensarling and Ceullar for now. The numbers look to strong going toward Ceullar for Bonilla to defend. I'm going to need to see how Chapman does in campaign mode to believe he can defeat the Hensarling machine. Chapman is ahead right now, but it's going to be tough for him to win, given the statewide voting history of the District, especially if Bush gets involved in the campaign for Hensarling.

There are some other potential competitive campaigns in Texas, the two new districts, the 31st and 32nd districts have been mentioned, but it would be a huge upset for the Democrats to win in those two districts. In the 32nd, the B+L percentage of VAP is 33%, but Sessions is the odds on favorite over Dixon. It could become competitive, depending on well Kirk and Sanchez draw in the district, but Dixon would need a strong coattails effect to win, probably not likely.

In the 14th District, Ron Paul (who I voted for President in 1988, fyi) is now running as a Republican (who says libertarians are not pragmatic!). He faces a potentially strong challenge from Corby Windham. It's got a slight Republican lean, by 10 percent in '98. However, it's got a lot more Latino's now, at 30 percent, 36% B+H. The GOP's Ortega is challenging Frost in the 24rd District. The B+L percentage of the VAP is 55%, with Latino's making up 33 percent of the vote. It's a slightly leaning Democrat District, even in 2000, by 7 percent. Stenholm (17th) and Hall (4th) are in GOP seats, and will be until they retire.

Let me mention something about Hall. It's a widely stated urban myth that Hall has pledged his support to Hastart being the next Speaker. He did no such thing. He did meet with Bush, but is only quoted as stating his vote will go toward a "conservative" as the next speaker. That's got some latitude (Forst would arguably fit that description) and Frost is possibly the entire reason for Hall leaving in the wiggle room he did. Besides, if the difference is 217-217 with Hall as the deciding vote. The Democrats will vote for Hall himself to avoid the Hastart and DeLay leadership again!

Frost is very much interested in leap-frogging over Pelosi. If the Dems gain 6-8 seats, as I expect, then a small number of DINO's are going to decide the next Speaker, Hall and Cramer being the most visible.
In a head-to-head, Pelosi would beat Frost, given the current standing of Democrats in the House. Or if the Dems won 10+ seats more (seems unlikely at this point) in 2002, then Gephardt/Pelosi would easily win.

If it winds up being a 1-3 Democratic majority seat margin, DINO's like Hall & Cramer will decide the next Speaker. The Democrats will have either a "conservative" Democrat (Frost) as Speaker, or remain with Hastart. It won't be that difficult of a decision. As far as Frost's "conservative" credentials go, he's white, bald, and a lawyer from Texas-- that will work as conservative enough.

However, having said all of that, I have a tough time seeing Gephardt working as hard as he has to achieve the Speaker, to abandon it as soon as it's accomplished. The likelihood of it coming down to a single vote is very slim. As such, Gepardt will either become the next Speaker, or step down in losing again, resulting in a leadership battle between Pelosi and Frost for Majority or Minority Leader. Both of which Pelosi would win.