06/16/2002 Archived Entry: "Texas Statewide Elections; Bush and Latino support"

George Strong crunched the numbers on the statewide Texas elections recently, What Tony and Ron and John must do to win in the fall, a look at the professor's predictions. I did the same thing earlier in this post, specifically with the Senate race, Kirk vs Cornyn. I've been following Strong's tread for a while, and his advice is always sound, I bet the candidate teams heed his words. I just think he's granting too much to the GOP with giving them 30% each of the black and latino vote. At the least, they would be different for Sanchez, Kirk, and Sharp.

He's also got some interesting poll numbers here, showing how, at least for Bush, Latino's are trending toward the GOP. The Republican problem, once again, is he has no coattails. This calls into question the depth of the support, especially unoppsed.

Replies: 4 comments

Again...Bush has to put his money where his mouth is. Bush is popular because of his amnesty proposals. If the proposals pass, Bush likely wins, if of course the economy recovers. But, if amnesty does not pass Bush is toast. Now, amnesty can pass if and only if the GOP looses the House and does not take back the Senate. The GOP led by Tancredo and other xenophobes are not going to let any amnesty bill pass if they are in the majority. So, if the GOP keeps the House, Bush looses the Latino vote. However, if the Dems take back the House and keep the Senate, amnesty will pass..at least Rove would push Bush in that direction and he will win the Latino vote. You make a very interesting point about Bush's coattails not rubbing off on GOP. My comment is that although many Latinos are poor, they are not stupid...I do not think they would commit political suicide by supporting Tancredo or Lamar Smith, or for that matter Virgil Goode, Jo Ann Emerson, Jo Ann Davis or Anne Northrup. Most of these folks not only want amnesty stopped, they also want a constitutional amendment to strip folks born to illegal aliens of their US citizenship. I have this interesting article in Washington Post today (June 16), which suggests that the conservatives (should I say xenophobes and rednecks) are not too enamored with Bush and this includes Bush's immigration agenda.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56480-2002Jun15.html

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/16/2002 01:00 PM PST

Great link CJ Raj, what strikes me here, is looking back with hindsight at Daschles stopping in its tracks, the "stimulus package" which was a Republican corporate welfare bill. That not only defeated a lousy budget-busting deficit-inducing bill, it sent the message that Bush had opposition to his agenda (this scenario basically repeated itself with the estate tax repeal failure). Then came CFR and the ASA successes, now capitulation by Bush on the the Dept., of HS, it's why Daschle has proved such a huge thorn in their side-- because Daschle is driving the agenda.

It's not that ""Bush's popularity has developed an "inverse relationship" with the success of the Republican agenda,"" it's that Daschle has stood up to and defeated the agenda.

Bush is going to have further trouble with PR (and by association, Latino voters), where he's pledged to stop the bombing by 2003, and is likely to not meet that pledge.

Posted by myDD @ 06/16/2002 07:23 PM PST

The Bush Administration and the so-called Christian fundamentalists team up with Islamic fundamentalists, Taliban-minded characters and other thugs who attacked our country. Bush urges welfare recipients to abstain from sex in Arkansas. Perhaps he should give that advise to Tim Hutchinson. If Bush and the GOP are so concerned about family values why are they supporting the philanderer who cheated on his wife, Tim Hutchinson? Do they practice what they preach?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61275-2002Jun16.html

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/17/2002 07:41 AM PST

It will be possible for the Dems to win many of these races.
Two reasons for this are;
The Gop turnout will be softer than the Democrats. They have no issues or anger that will be driving them to the polls. The Democrats have , for the first time since 1994, a reason to vote in Texas.
Secondly, state political parties have a difficult time adjusting after a President or Vice-President is elected from there state. Usually this creates a power vacuuem. The Texas GOP ticket does not even come close to the level of diversity in the state. They also seem to be a very mediocre lot.

Posted by TOM @ 06/18/2002 08:55 AM PST