06/16/2002 Archived Entry: "French Election Results; campaign implications for the US"
Left Total 178
Socialist 153
Communists 23
Greens 2
Right Total 399
Union for Presidential Majority 375
Union for French Democracy 24
(Based on exit polls)
Vote turns Chirac into strongman of Europe
Since his re-election the president has, however, displayed the kind of political cunning that has kept him at the top of French politics for 40 years.
First, he dragooned the fractious French right into an umbrella party, the Union for a Presidential Majority, averting the risk of its vote being split between three or four warring candidates.
Second, he appointed a mild-mannered provincial moderate, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, as prime minister to reassure an electorate alienated by the increasingly remote and arrogant Paris political elite. Third, he responded to voters' key concerns about crime and violence by creating a ministry of internal security and appointing as its first minister a young loyalist, Nicolas Sarkozy.
Finally, the president ordained that the centre-right's election campaign be fought solely on the issue of the dangers of a new cohabitation. If you give me a majority, I'll be able to do something for you, was the message. If you don't, we'll be back where we were.
France's shaken and weary electorate bought it, leaving the left struggling to explain why voters should want another cohabitation.
"Not one institutional obstacle will limit the president's power to act. Everything is under his control," said Le Monde, contrasting Mr Chirac's new-found dominance with the policy log-jam he endured in five years of ignominious "cohabition" with a Socialist-led government.
Dire warnings about the extent of Mr Chirac's power if he won a parliamentary landslide also failed to frighten anyone.
Well, it's worse than I thought. The French left has become so complacent, that the right has won total control. It seems reminiscent to me of Bush winning in 2000, when the US left thought they could afford to vote for Nader. In France, the left felt they could afford not to vote- - the highest abstention rate for a general election in 43 years.
I expect the Bush lesson from this will be a strong move toward confronting the Obstructionists in Congress, but they will probably take a cue from Chirac, and make it a late election move, an October surprise that the Democrats feel compelled to take opposition with, or appear as being DINO's themselves to the voters. What could this issue be? I can't think of one right now that would work, but I'm sure they are busy trying. It's sure not going to be terrorism, or some military adventure, read the AP headlines:
Daschle Favors Arafat Replacement (6:58PM EDT)
Democrats Back Saddam Removal Plan (6:45PM EDT)
Most uncommitted electors who voted yesterday said they wanted to end five years of inconclusive power-sharing between a rightwing president and a leftwing parliament. "I just want an end to cohabitation," said a bookshop owner in Paris. "I want things to get done, and either the left or the right to be accountable - not both."
Domestically, the Republican's problem is that the voters already know what to expect with a Republican Trifecta. Pre-Jeffords, it's hard-right agenda wasn't very appealing either. It's not the virgin-appeal that Chirac had going for him. Bush would like us to forget that they ever had a Trifecta, or the bipartisan talk of candidate Bush. Jeffords still maintains his 69% approval rating in VT, and Independents in the US still want a divided Gov't. What they really want, is for Bush to make good on changing the tone and bipartisanship that he pledged as a candidate. We haven't heard much from that Bush lately.
