06/22/2002 Archived Entry: "MN GOV; OR Senate"

Moe has a pretty strong leg up on the other candidates right now in MN, which means another possible Democratic takeover. He's leading by 9-10% over the other two candidates, with 20% undecided. I had earlier had this going to Ventura, which would mean that the Democrats can now expect to add 8 new Gubernatorial seats. I think Ventura's dropout is probably good news for Wellstone too, just given the candidate profiles, and their match-up against the I-Party. Not much of a difference, but a little.

Lon Mabon is running for the US Senate in Oregon, on the Constitutionalist Party ticket. He got 8% against Smith in the '96 GOP primary, I think he's good for 1-2%,and that's 1-2% that Smith cannot afford to lose either. Clinton is going to come fundraising for Bradbury. Kitzhaber is also going to campaign for Bradbury. Smith has tried to early KO Bradbury with negative ads, but they are not working much, so Bradbury isn't even bothering to respond to the latest ones. With Kitzhaber and Clinton backing him, Bradbury can win in Oregon with a positive message. Especially with the media letting the conservatives to the right of Smith make their case. Smith is not likely to respond to Mabon, but will have a hard time keeping distance from Mannix, the Republican's conservative Governor candidate.

Replies: 2 comments

"I had earlier had this going to Ventura, which would mean that the Democrats can now expect to add 8 new Gubernatorial seats."

I really still do not believe that Hawaii is going to the GOP unless they run an Asian or a Hawaiian. NH is too close to call. At present, I think the GOP would pickup AL and AK. Based on the polls, the Dems can pick up MA, ME, RI, PA, MI, IL, MN, WI, TN, NM, AZ...a possible pick up of nine...however SD and KS could come into play...anywhere from six to eleven...but more like eight as you say.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/22/2002 02:07 PM PST

Amazing consistency in most generic congressional polls.
CBS: GOP 38, Dems 37, Undecided: 25;
NBC: GOP 33, Dems 35, Undecided 32;
Bloomberg: GOP 36, Dems 36, Undecided 28;
Zogby GOP 34, Dems 34, Undecided 32.
Congressional Approval: CBS Approve 43, Disapprove 40; NBC: Approve 43; Disapprove 41.

If these trends hold up at the beginning of September, based on past history, it spells trouble for the party which holds the White House. Usually in the last two weeks, a substantial majority of the undecideds move against the incumbents. With all this history and a high Congressional Disapproval rate, how can the pundits be sure that there are very few competitive seats? Am I missing something they know?

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/22/2002 04:59 PM PST