06/22/2002 Archived Entry: "The most interesting nugget from the recent Dean articles"
This paragraph, from TAP, gives you a lot of insight into the Dean campaigns strategy going into the 2004 Democratic nomination:
Many of the contacts Dean has developed date back to the 1990s, when he served as chairman of the National Governors Association (NGA) health committee, then as co-chair of the NGA's Task Force on Health Care, and finally as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association (DGA). Since 1995, he's been the DGA's main recruiter for gubernatorial candidates, a post that has given him the chance to crisscross the country for five years, meeting and greeting.
"I think some of the governors will help Dean behind the scenes, and some will help out in the open," says Joe Trippi, the veteran political consultant who's helped run presidential campaigns for Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, Richard Gephardt, and Jerry Brown. Trippi worked on all of Dean's gubernatorial wins, and has signed on to provide strategy for Dean 2004. Though he's not being paid (yet), Trippi is helping his candidate map out field operations in New Hampshire -- where Dean hopes to claim near-favorite-son status -- as well as in Iowa and South Carolina. Trippi admits that Dean faces an uphill battle. But presidential campaigns always narrow down to just two people, he observes. "Gore probably has one of the gates cinched, and the question is, who gets the other gate?" he says. "My guess is that whoever gets the other gate wins."
1) Dean is going to exploit his being the only Governor candidate, counting on at least covert help from the Democratic Governors. It would be interesting to find out what candidates he recruited over the past seven years, especially this year, when the gains are likely to be extraordinary. Initially, as a darkhorse candidate, he can not bank on them coming out in the open with their support.
2) Trippi hasn't worked on a Presidential campaign since Brown's, in 1992. During that campaign, I recall some of Brown's talk being the same as what Trippi is saying here. Brown thought that if he could broker the convention, that he'd be chosen over Clinton. The NY primary put that notion in its place. Trippi is thinking along those same lines with Dean. That if Dean can get it down to himself and Gore, that Dean will naturally win. No, even further, that whoever is the last one standing next to Gore, is going to win! There's a problem with this thinking as well, and that's Bradley in 2000. He was standing alone alongside Gore, and got crushed.
That said, I don't buy Trippi's line of reasoning. Dean's best shot is what has been called the "slingshot effect" by ABC's political writers. And it's what I see as one of two likely outcomes of the compacted Democratic primary schedule. Someone wins the first two primaries, and is catapulted into prominence, winning it before it's even begun. The other probable result is what I'll call the "buckshot effect." Say, the Democrats takeover the full Congress in 2002, opening the barn door for all the potential 2004 contenders. As an example, say that Gore wins IA, Dean wins NH, Edwards wins SC, Gore wins AZ, and Gephardt wins MI. The primary goes into the next two rounds of Super Tuesday with 5 top-tier candidates remaining, due to the regional favorites banking wins. A brokered convention is likely at that point. Who knows how that would end up.
Dean's best bet is to win Iowa and New Hampshire, become the front-runner, and look inevitable amidst a multitude of Democratic Governor endorsements. Trippi is right, it'll narrow down to two candidates, but he's probably mistaken (again) in thinking that his outsider candidate can win without the frontrunner status.
I's a tall task ahead. The first thing Dean needs to do is drive the agenda, and he's doing just that, with being the first to call for cancelling the deficit spending Bush tax-cuts, that Lieberman and Edwards have followed.
Replies: 4 comments
In another post you say that the takeover by the Rockefeller Republicans (ie., Democrats) would be complete with New Hampshire. Did I understand you right? If I did, what is your feel about the NH Governor's race?
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/23/2002 01:14 PM PST
That's a tough race to handicap. Tight races on both sides, with a toss-up race in the general as well. Right now, I'd lean it to the GOP, but only just because... I probably will wait until Sept to look & follow more closely.
The leading indicator for both the Senate and Gov races is Shaheen. Not only is she looking for a promotion, but her record/agenda is what the voters will be either wanting to continue, or abandon.
So I think the contests will be either GOP sweeps, or Dem sweeps.
Posted by myDD @ 06/23/2002 02:23 PM PST
Broder has an article out today on the unlikely successful Senate candidacy's:
Why Few Senators Become Presidents
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26390-2002Jun21.html
Posted by myDD @ 06/23/2002 02:27 PM PST
Both Smith and Sunnunu are under 50% against Shaheen...does not bode well for either. But, governor's race...who knows?
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/23/2002 05:29 PM PST
