06/24/2002 Archived Entry: "Gephardt's opening"

Finally, the moment has arrived for the GOP, led by George Bush, to claim the title as the Borrow and Spend Republicans. Bush (the biggest Spender ever), along with O'Neill (the worst Treasury Secretary ever) Want to Up Debt Limit. Where did the Surplus go? Where did those heady times when the Republicans could spend $89,000,000 on investigating whether Bill Clinton lied about getting a blow job. The rainy day is here, and Bush has already spent away the funds that might keep the nation away from deficit spending.

Bush wanted an authorization of about $750B, which might have lasted through the 2004 elections. The Senate Democrats approved $450B, which will last through 2003, making this an campaign issue in 2004. The House, through a blatantly partisan move, attached the debt increase to the Emergency Homeland Security bill, passing it in the middle of the night. Daschle and the Senate responded by making it a separate issue, requiring the House to do likewise, voting on the debt increase as an actual bill.

But facing nearly unanimous Democratic opposition, House GOP leaders say they lack the votes to increase the ceiling. Democrats blame the need to raise the limit, the first increase in five years, on President Bush's 10-year, $1.35 trillion tax cut and say they will not bail out the GOP.... Over the first three days of July, the government is due to make $54 billion in payments to Social Security, veterans, retired civil servants and other federal beneficiaries.

Now, I can imagine three scenarios here:

1) Bush blames the Democrats in the House for their partisan stripes, saying that if the nation defaults on paychecks, and enough of them wag their tails and bark accordingly. As those first few days in July arrive, the spineless Democrats blink first.

2) The Democrats in effect extort demands and requests from Hastart, in return for voting yes for the debt increase. This happens through Gephardt not having the leadership skills to keep the Dems united in opposition, allowing Bush/Hastart to peel off enough individuals or small groups through pork deals.

3) Democrats stand united in opposition, not blinking first, and making Bush/Cheney/DeLay twist and break some Republican arms to get 218 House Borrow and Spend Republicans to sign the debt increase, marking with their political blood, that the GOP is the Party of fiscal irresponsibility. Otherwise, the Democrats will only cut a deal in which the Bush deficit-spending tax-cut is rescinded.

The Democrat-led Senate has approved legislation to raise the nation's $5.95 trillion debt limit by $450 billion, but the Republican-dominated House has yet to act.

"If they don't act we're going to hit the wall probably by next weekend, because on Sunday we've got to certify Social Security payments and we have some other large payments," O'Neill told ABC's "This Week" show.

I have never seen such a clear fork in the road.

Right now, I don't think #1 would work, the Democrats in the House have been already stepped on and over too much for that to be effective. Hastart/DeLay have burned too many bridges. But you never know. Alternative #2 seems likely and has occurred over and over. Bush invites a dozen over to the WH, and they announce publicly their support, having cut a deal privately. As for door #3, that's somewhere I dream of the Democrats going.

However, if they do so, they must define the terrain going into this battle. Otherwise, they risk being castigated for Senior's and Veterans not getting their checks. In return for their votes, Democrats should fight for the remaining parts of the tax-cut to be rescinded. If Bush wants more debt, that's the deal he must cut. Let's see how Gephardt responds to this defining moment.

Replies: 1 Comment

The Bush Administration needs to get rid of Paul O'Neill first and replace him with Anne Krueger. Otherwise we are going to see more mess.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 06/26/2002 08:30 AM PST