07/03/2002 Archived Entry: "Just 4 months until the election-- Democrats will likely takeover majority of nations Governor seats."
July 4th, 2002, Updated Governor 2002 Analysis
Replies: 10 comments
Barring unexpected events, the Dems would take over the majority of the governorships. I think more than Florida, Texas is in play...the GOP has a Texas size problem...however, I think Mass is likely going the other way, and perhaps Iowa too. No one seems to have any polls on Colorado governor's race. My contacts in Colorado tell me that an anti-incumbent mood is brewing there...in Tennessee as well.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/05/2002 07:04 AM PST
Locals disagree with the inside the beltway pundits in Oklahoma:
http://www.newsok.com/cgi-bin/show_article?ID=882444&pic=none&TP=getopinion
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/05/2002 07:11 AM PST
Disturbing:
Vaccum at the US Treasury (mostly intellectual vaccum on the part of Secretary O'Neill) being filled by IMF and European Bank...dont see Treasury Secretary O'Neill in the debate..do we? He does not understant economics. We really cannot afford two more years of this nonsense...can be changed if the voters send Bush a message on November 5.
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1025793333356&p=1012571727088
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/05/2002 07:47 AM PST
In Colorado incumbent GOP governor Bill Owens is likely to win reelection. He's not the brightest bulb in the light fixture but the Dems didn't come up with a strong candidate this year. Owens was elected in a squeaker in 1998, so the failure of the Dems to actively contest Owens this year was a surprise.
The Democrat, Rollie Heath, is a fairly unknown Boulder businessman with money but little else. Owens has pulled some Bush-like bungles lately, including a letter to Jewish leaders claiming Heath was anti-Israel and some dumb statements about the forest fires in Colorado. However, the odds are Owens will get 52% in November, with Heath pulling about 41%, the Green 5% and the Libertarian 2%.
Most of the attention in Colorado is on the US Senate race and the contest for the new 7th CD in the northern Denver suburbs, a possible Democratic win depending on who gets the nomination in both parties. The GOP may nominate a rich banker (Bob Beauprez) and the Dems either a former state senator (Mike Feeley)or a county DA who's tainted by the Columbine school shooting investigation mess (Dave Thomas). The Greens have a strong candidate in Dave Chandler, a neighborhood and environmental activist from the suburban city of Arvada.
Posted by Eric Karnes @ 07/05/2002 09:38 AM PST
I think Owens would pull it off by a narrow margin from my vantage point here in the east coast...but the Senate race..watch the stock market...if it is still below 10,000 by October...Allard would be in serious trouble...even a pick up for the Dems. If the Dow is over 11,000 the GOP probably holds this seat. The seventh district is a toss-up right now from what I hear, and the 3rd is Lean GOP...all depends on the stock market and the economy...barring of course other unforseen circumstances, which could change the equation. I think I am getting it. I should be visiting CO and NM in early September
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/05/2002 01:09 PM PST
Yes, Allard has problems this year. He's been an invisible senator who hasn't made much of an impact with Colorado voters, so Strickland (the Dem who lost a close race to Allard in 1996) has a good shot at him. Polls show a close race. Strickland's already running TV ads, all positive "this is Tom Strickland" types.
Strickland benefitted when the Greens decided to concentrate on the state races and two of the congressional seats. A good Green would probably have drawn 5%, mostly from Strickland's base. Allard, on the other hand, has a VERY conservative Libertarian draining votes from him on the right.
Allard suffers not only from not having made much of an impact but also from having a poor record on the environment, which is becoming a more important issue in Colorado, especially among independent voters in the Denver suburbs who frequently vote GOP.
My best guess: Strickland in a squeaker; probably 49.5% to 49% with the rest to the Libertarian. The outcome probably won't be known until Wednesday after the election.
Posted by Eric Karnes @ 07/05/2002 01:41 PM PST
One victory is guaranteed though...Tom Tancredo's. The towns in his district increased in population by 200% as a result of white flight from California (especially from areas becoming heavily Asian such as Daly City and Fremont). I visited Littleton and Evergreen in 1999 when my sister was in training with the Feds. I met this lady by the name of Janice Herron in Evergreen. She was not very happy to see my sister or I. She made some comment to the fact that "we got away from your kind and you show up here." Generally they hate the Asians in Jeffco and Arapahoe. No wonder Tom Tancredo implies that Asian Americans are not really Americans.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/06/2002 06:34 PM PST
Tancredo is an example of everything wrong with today's GOP: xenophobic, homophobic, racist, beholden to polluters and to the religious right.
His redrawn district is more Republican than before so he'll win reelection easily against Lance Wright, a Democratic town councilman from Parker, a southeast Denver suburb. However, Tancredo is pledged to term limits, so unless he breaks his promise he's out in 2004.
Locals aren't placing any bets on his trustworthiness, however. If he does keep his promise to leave the House Tancredo may challenge Senator Ben Campbell in the 2004 GOP primary, or seek the open seat if Campbell retires, as is rumored.
The Dems would love to run against Tancredo in a statewide contest; his nasty comments about immigrants in general and Hispanics in particular would help motivate a growing voter demographic in Colorado to cast their ballots against him.
Posted by Eric Karnes @ 07/06/2002 08:13 PM PST
I don't think Tancredo would be able to get away with breking his term pledge. Armstrong would take him to the wood shed.
Posted by myDD @ 07/06/2002 08:45 PM PST
I have had dealings with some of Tancredo's constituents back in California. One of them is Janice Herron of Evergreen, CO. I ran into her after a colleague of ours was "arrested" by the American Patrol back in 1994. This colleague is a fifth generation Japanese American...but this group thought that she was an illegal.."arrested" her and "held" her until INS arrived, only to find out that she is an American citizen. However, Herron continued to beef about how Asians are taking over the Coastal Communities and they do not have blonde blue eyed surfers anymore...like they used to back in the 1950s. Eventually, Herron moved to Colorado, as a part of white flight from the Asians and yes, the "illegals". In 1999 when my sister was in Colorado I visited Evergreen and Littleton exactly a month before the Columbine massacre. The folks made it clear that they do not like Asians...a few women were even complaining about some Asian teenage girls being infatuated with their sons and stalking them, and not the other way round! Later on, I learnt about their Congressman Tom Tancredo..who himself is an anti-Asian bigot...like constituents, like congressman. He continuously rants about the Asian and the Mexican vote (just like some of the writers in the attached forum)...I once reminded him that they are not Asian but Americans, but he sort of implied that something to the effect that Asians do not belong in this country and that the South would have dealt with the agitators had it not been for "you immigrants." No surprise there...the Colorado sixth was formed from white flight mostly from California, as is St. George, Utah and parts of Idaho.
Regarding Tancredo running for the Senate, he is going to win if we have a Green running...unless of course we get someone like Jim Carville who can in effect destroy his opponent. Of late, Tancredo has been railing against the Southern Poverty Law Center.
http://www.examiner.com/opinion/default.jsp?story=op.letters.0705w
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/07/2002 01:05 PM PST
