07/05/2002 Archived Entry: "Tx Senate: Kirk vs Cornyn"
I looked over the poll data of the new poll by the University of Houston Center for Public Policy in which Kirk has 36 percent to Cornyn's 28 percent with 34 percent of the likely voters undecided. After looking over the poll innards, which show the GOP winning three of the four races, it's clear that Kirk is in a standing of his own. Cornyn has name ID problems and little solid support. This is reflected in these poll numbers that appear not to include leaners, which gives a more accurate gauge of candidate support, especially early on in the race.
Kirk is set to become the new Texas star. He's really aced Bush and Cornyn by not countering negative bashing with the like, instead taking the high road, Bush Disciple Challenged in Texas. Kirk has star status, Cornyn has to knock him down, but has failed to date. Kirk can afford to stay positive all the way to election day, if this continues. With Sanchez pulling closer, it means more summer media domination by Sanchez and eventually Perry, that helps Kirk by not giving much air space to Cornyn, especially in Dallas.
This race is far from over though. Cornyn was Bush and Rove's handpicked candidate for this Senate seat, and Kirk will depend heavily on a strong GOTV effort among latinos and blacks. I look for Cornyn to attempt positive ads now, in order to bring up his support numbers, before having to attack Kirk again in the Fall.
Replies: 4 comments
Perry is under 50%..a dangerous level for an incumbent in a GOP state. This despite all the uncle Toms in the black community endorsing him over Sanchez a few days ago. Cornyn is in very serious trouble. Two years ago, he stood in front of the Death Chamber in Huntsville, Texas and said that he was defending the honor of the state of Texas against outside agitation. He does not have much honor himself...he only returned the tainted Enron money after severe criticisms from all sides (except of course his bigoted supporters)..if the Dems hold on to the Senate by knocking off Cornyn, GW would rue the day that he did not openly condemn Susan Weddington and her bigoted 2000 GOP Platform...and of course he would also rue the day when he did not ask Cornyn to step aside and make room for Bonilla. In the final analysis, no self-respecting minority should vote for Cornyn of his bigoted kind.
Nationally, do the pundits such as CQ really expect me to believe them when the say that GOP has a 70% chance of holding the House, when they are in such serious trouble in Texas...a GOP state?
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/05/2002 04:19 PM PST
Nero (TNR) fiddles while Rome (Texas) burns!
http://www.thenewrepublic.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=judis070302
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/05/2002 04:43 PM PST
Nice link G.C. Raj,
"Unless the economy turns decisively downward in the next four months and new even larger scandals emerge, Worldcom and Enron may prove less salient than the Democrats hope or Bush fears."
What type of "even larger scandals emerge" is TNR looking for? WCOM(E) has been one of the BIG DOGS of the NASDAQ. Arthur Anderson, it doesn't get much bigger in the business world...
Economics, not the WOT leadership, is what is holding the politicians' slim thread of hope that everythings still the same. What's made this a credible belief is the increase in home values, even amidst the equitites collapse. Watch those home prices, after the dollar, it's been the only capital left unaffected, in fact they've balooned 20-25% over the past year.
Cornyn has no luck, Enron and Worldcom are his bankrolls. If the Democrats cannot wrap Enron around Bush and Worldcom around Lott and the Republican Senate, they deserve to lose. Seeing that 65-35 flip, regarding the side of business interests over the public, the perception is already there, Democrats just need to make it the wedge issue for election.
Posted by myDD @ 07/05/2002 08:13 PM PST
Watch the Stock Market and the Unemployment rates over the next three to four months. That should tell us the story. People will vote their pocketbooks unless another unforseen event takes place. The Washington Insiders were pedaling the same story about the US Senate back in the summer of 1986...that the GOP would hold the Senate 51-49...except folks at the Washington Week in Review led by Paul Duke, whose prediction was Dems 51-49. The result...the Dems 55-45. So Called safe Senators, Denton (AL), Mattingly (GA), Abdnor (SD) and Andrews (ND) all lost. CQ still says that Cornyn has the edge in the Texas Senate race...in my opinion the only edge he has is his white skin color (over his opponent who is black) in what in the past has been as I usually call a traditionally racist state. In all other aspects Kirk comes out ahead. The issue for the rest of America outside the south is whether the Texans are racist enough to vote for Cornyn, Enron, the Economy and the World Com not withstanding.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/06/2002 11:27 AM PST
