07/06/2002 Archived Entry: "Committee for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE)"

Committee for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE)

A good summary by John McCaslin of voter decline in the US that I'll post the entire summation of in the extended text. If the primary turnout is extended into the general, GOTV efforts will be more important than ever:

America's disconnect

The 2000 presidential election was the closest in 125 years in terms of electoral-vote difference. It was the second-closest election (behind 1960) in the percentage of vote difference between the two leading candidates.

Yet, a bare majority of the voting-age population — just 50 percent — cast ballots.

"Hardly an endorsement of the idea of electoral resurgence," concludes the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE) in Washington, which has uncovered a continuing and progressive generational decline in voting.

In fact, Americans ages 18-20 have reduced their rate of participation by more than 40 percent since they were given the franchise in 1972 in both presidential and midterm elections. And worse yet, as each succeeding generation moves up the age ladder, they are reducing the rates in the age cohorts above them. Consider these facts:

•The rate of presidential-voting participation of Americans ages 18-24 has declined 40 percent since 1972, according to U.S. census data.
•The rate of participation for ages 25-34 has declined 32 percent since 1964.
•The decline for 35- to 44-year-olds is 23 percent since 1964.
•The voting rate for 45- to 54-year-olds is down 16 percent since 1964.
•There has been a 9 percent decline for 55- to 64-year-olds since 1964.

"Only those over 65 have actually increased their rate of participation," the committee finds, noting that the number of Americans above age 75 casting presidential ballots has jumped 21 percent (part of the reason is Americans are living longer).

What do these numbers spell for the future of America?

"This generational decline will not be reversed until some new generation gets different stimuli in the home, their schools and in the macrocosm of American politics," says the CSAE.

Drifting from D.C.

The patriotic fervor generated by the September 11 attacks is unfortunately not translating into increased political participation by Americans.

Statewide primaries held in 18 states in recent weeks by both major parties resulted in record low levels of voter turnout, according to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE).

It has gotten so bad that average levels of voter turnout today are more than 50 percent lower than they were in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Voter turnout in statewide primaries held in the spring averaged just 16 percent of eligible voters, compared with 18 percent in 1998 and down 51 percent from the high-water mark for turnout in 1966.

Democrats and Republicans alike have every reason to be concerned. Turnout in the 18 states that held Democratic statewide primaries averaged just 8 percent of eligibles. And Republicans fared even worse: turnout in the 18 states averaged just 7 percent.

"In the real world, no one should have expected that the events of September 11 would have increased political participation," says CSAE Director Curtis Gans. "While there was an increase in patriotism, there was also an essential national unity that does not draw people into electoral contest.

"And what the citizenry was asked to do was to return to normalcy, consume material goods and invest in the stock market, hardly clarion calls to civic involvement," he adds. "The only exhortation was for an increase in volunteerism, which tends to be a noblesse oblige apolitical act."

Replies: 2 comments

Everyone asks why I do not wave flag and celebrate July 4th...I celebrate the first tuesday in November instead...by exercising my right to vote.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/06/2002 06:28 PM PST

It's the same syndrome all over the Western world - last year at the General Election, turnout was only 59%, way down from even 1997, when it was 72%. I think in Australia, it is mandatory to vote - and while this idea is still shunned in the British political arena right now, if the trend of lower voter participation continues, then it may yet be compulsory to vote in the British Isles. I for one think it is a sad comment on any country that has to force its citizens to choose their elected leaders.

Posted by UK Dem @ 07/07/2002 07:00 AM PST