07/08/2002 Archived Entry: "Clash of the titans: Gephardt & Gore; Dean watch"
Will an Al Gore–Richard Gephardt presidential-primary fight ruin the Democrats in 2004?
BY SETH GITELL
I don't see how Gephardt or Gore will be able to resist a run for the Presidency in 2004. Gore's candidacy has the potential to like Hart's feeble run in 1988, collapsing before it'd even begun, look at the TN numbers in the poll conducted by Mason-Dixon:
On the question of whether Vice President Al Gore should run for president again, the survey found more people against the idea than in favor with 47% against, 38% for it and 15% not sure... On the question of Gore running for president again, Coker said the poll did not try to separate Democratic voters from Republican voters but tried to take a snapshot of the whole state. ''It reflects the times and circumstances. The numbers could change two years from now.''
Plus, ABC's The Note ripped a new one into Gore today, I'll quote the entire thing:
More than a week after Al Gore gave his "mistakes were made" address in Tennessee, there's still churning in Democratic political circles.
Ever since one esteemed source brought to our attention the following passage from Gore's Earth in the Balance, we've been asking ourselves, and an informal cyber focus group of former Gore loyalists, still Gore loyalists, other Democratic party operatives, and neutral close observers just what it all might mean. Check out this passage from pages 8-9:
"In March 1987, I decided to run for president … In the speech in which I declared my candidacy, I focused on global warming, ozone depletion and the ailing global environment and declared that these issues — along with nuclear arms control — would be the principal focus of my campaign. Little did I know that even a more seasoned and experienced candidate than myself would have had a difficult time keeping his campaign focused on issues that were considered exotic at best by pollsters and political professionals. Worse, I started to wonder whether the issues I knew to be important really were peripheral after all. I began to doubt my own political judgment, so I began to ask the pollsters and professional politicians what they thought I ought to talk about. As a result, for much of the campaign I dicussed what everybody else discussed, which too often was a familiar list of what the insiders agree are 'the issues.' The American people sometimes suspect that campaign agendas come straight from the pollsters and political professionals. Too often they're right."
We were regaled with a lot of thoughts covering pretty much the entire spectrum of possibilities, from Gore's just saying this both times because it might sound good, to Gore's truly believing this and just losing his way, but the most common thread from all the very helpful commentary was: general unease with the process and all those involved — including, possibly, the voters.
Put that one in the can't teach an old dog a new trick file, pathetic!
Just as Gephardt and Gore opened up the path for Dukakis to win the Democratic nomination, Dean or Kerry would be able to move into this void, except for there's two of them as well, which brings us to Edwards... With AZ now about to bump up their primary date, and all five of these candidates having their strengths, a brokered convention can not be ruled out. Dean's not going anywhere, and if 4 different candidates win a primary out of the possible first 6 (IA, NH, DE, SC, AZ, MI, WA), that means it'll go into the two Super Tuesdays with all 5 remaining.
That could happen, but if Gore doesn't walk a way with it, I think the case will be strong for him to leave, which would really open things up.
From CBS's political unit:
No Holiday for Howard Dean: His standing in the polls could hardly be lower. His name recognition is abysmal. His fund-raising would hardly pay for a city council run. In spite of all that – or perhaps because of it - Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is betting on a travel-heavy schedule to propel him to the upper echelon of the Democrats running for the 2004 presidential nomination.
Democratic luminaries like Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt, John Edwards and John Kerry all have made repeated trips to Iowa this year, but The Des Moines Register reports that none have been there as much as Dean. For the rest of the summer, Dean plans to keep up the pace.
Next week, Dean campaigns in Colorado for gubernatorial candidate Rollie Heath, visits Wyoming, and attends the National Governors Association meeting in Idaho. Later in the month, it's back to Iowa on two different trips, with visits to New York City, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and California thrown-in for good measure. In August, Dean hits New Hampshire, several times, as well as Oklahoma and Canada – yes, Canada – for meetings on the miraculous Canadian universal health care system.
Wed 7/10 – Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in Colorado doing fundraiser for Rollie Heath.
Thu 7/11 – Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Fri 7/12-7/14 – National Governors' Association meeting in Boise,
Idaho. Gov. Howard Dean in attendance.
Mon 7/15: Vermont Governor Howard Dean visits Iowa.
Replies: 1 Comment
Unfortunately I would miss the National Governor's meeting by about a week. Perhaps this is the last time for at least four years that the GOP would be in the majority.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/08/2002 05:55 PM PST
