07/11/2002 Archived Entry: "CA GOV:"

Davis has a 7-point lead over Simon in the latest nonpartisan Field poll. The previous Field Poll, conducted 4/19-25/02, found Davis ahead of Simon by a 43-29 margin, with 28% undecided. This poll shows Davis with 41% Simon with 34% and 25% undecided, so obviously, there's been some movement toward Simon. However, the poll innards state that there was a small sample size for liberals; likewise for N. CA, which means that support of Davis is probably understated. Here's what one poster, who did the math, pointed out on politicalwire.com: When comparing the demographics of the two polls, in April the partisan split was 47% Dem, 37% GOP, and 16% Unaffiliated. In this poll, the split are 44% Dem, 42% GOP, and 14% Unaffiliated. If you apply the partisan makeup of the last poll to the results in this poll, Davis leads 43%-31%, no statistical change from April.

The underlying unfavorable ratings of Davis are increasingly being neutralized by a similar finding with Simon. Davis has a 51% unfavorable rating, with 12% having no opinion, while Simon has a 39% unfavorable rating, with 31% having no opinion. Given that Simon's favorable rating is 30%, and Davis has a 37% favorable rating, and the corresponding ratios, it works that undecideds breaking alongside this ratio would result in Davis having a 58% unfavorable rating, and Simon having a 57% unfavorable rating. In otherwords, they both suck according to the majority of voters, which is exactly what Davis wants to do with the issue-- make it a wash.

The telling indicator of where the 25% undecideds is going to break is found in the Independent breakdown. With 54% of Independents left undecided, 32% have chosen Davis, and 14% have chosen Simon. Republicans and Democrats will break about even, giving a slight edge to Davis, even given a optimistic 3-5% Green vote. To win, Simon will have to take the Independent vote, which still looks unlikely.

Replies: 6 comments

"In otherwords, they both suck according to the majority of voters"

You ain't kidding. I refused to vote for Davis in the primary, and I can't imagine punching the hole next to his name in November. I'll probably leave the Governor's ballot line blank.

Posted by Kos @ 07/11/2002 01:41 PM PST

Your bias is blaring, I personally think you should put a disclaimer on this page saying that you're a Democratic party hack that you are.

Posted by Will @ 07/12/2002 09:21 AM PST

Prove it by posting something a bit higher in substance than the level of a freeper. You don't like the facts? deal with it by disproving them, not petty bs.

Posted by myDD @ 07/12/2002 09:45 AM PST

Good analysis. While Field is an exemplary non-partisan pollster, it is often very informative to look behind the candidate support numbers to the ideological breakdown of the respondents. Although that is sometimes just the way the statistics crumble, as I am sure it is with Field, sometimes it reflects more insidious assumptions that a pollster may adopt to bias the results.

For example, during the 2000 election, when the POA poll (Portrait of America, taken by Rasmussen Research) was showing Bush up by double-digits throughout the campaign and crushing Gore even in the last pre-election poll, a comparison of POA's ideological breakdown with the 1998 election CNN exit polls (which, as an off-year, probably exaggerated the conservative turnout versus a Presidential year in any event) showed that POA (probably more aptly named POS) greatly overpolled conservatives. POA was an outlier throughout the campaign, and obviously did not come remotely close to predicting Gore's popular vote victory.

Posted by CADem @ 07/12/2002 10:37 AM PST

Check my post in the next section. It is clear that it is not MyDD's bias, but WSJ's lies suggesting that Simon is up by 9 points, that is appalling.

Posted by G. C. Raj @ 07/12/2002 03:09 PM PST

Another interesting article:

http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/ca/story/3545368p-4572059c.html

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/12/2002 03:15 PM PST