07/14/2002 Archived Entry: "NJ 5th District"
East Meets West in 5th District. An informative article on the Garrett vs Sumers race. Along with some numbers at the bottom of the article, that give you a feel for where the race will be decided. The Bergen moderates will be the swing group in this race. Garrett's got a good webpage on even further details of the 5th district. I don't agree with his "net increase" for Garrett theory regarding the redistricting that was done, as it was done to shore up Roukema's chances against Garrett himself, by adding more moderate Republicans to the district.
Replies: 8 comments
Garrett will coast to victory. This is a solidly conservative Republican area, and went for George W. Bush, I think it was probably his best showing in NJ. I forget where I saw this.
Posted by Will @ 07/15/2002 02:17 PM PST
I have it as slight lean GOP, simply because of Garrett's being from the smaller rural part of the district, and he makes Schundler look like a centrist, and Bush look like a liberal. Sumers will probably slightly best Garrett in Bergen county, but the rural areas will likely make up the difference and more, for Garrett. For her to win, she would need to lopside the GOTV effort. The cash position will give us a clue as to if she has some deep support in Bergen county. Garrett looks like he's going to try and ride off of Bush for this race.
Posted by myDD @ 07/15/2002 05:30 PM PST
"Garrett looks like he's going to try and ride off of Bush for this race."
Schundler could not do it. I do not expect Garrett to. He has to win on his own merits.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/16/2002 01:56 PM PST
I'm obviously not from New Jersey, but from what I see I don't think Garrett will coast. According to www.ncec.org/redistricting/, Bush and Gore got 53.9%/46.1% in the new 5th. We had a similar situation in the slight GOP leaning suburban district where I live here in CA. A well-funded pro-business woman beat a right wing incumbent (in 1996). With Sumers not facing an incumbent and an electoral environment favorable to Democrats this fall, I think she has a good shot.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 07/18/2002 09:34 AM PST
I woldn't be so quick to call this race for Garrett. I expect that the trend of northern suburban areas towards the Democratic Party will accelerate like a rocket this year with the economy tanking like it is.
I think you may have to re-do your projections for congress. The GOP is going to get swamped in the open seats.
Posted by TOM @ 07/19/2002 02:42 PM PST
Well, if its like this come Nov, of course. But I think an Oct surprise is up Rove's sleeve.
Posted by myDD @ 07/19/2002 03:50 PM PST
myDD, do you have anything in mind? The only potential good news I can think of for the GOP is the capture of bin Laden. Even that is a risky move because if the media questions the timing it could backfire. As I see it bad news (stock market crash, terrorist attack, etc.) is much more likely.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 07/19/2002 04:35 PM PST
Nothing conventional. Something that puts Bush in a good light, raises his public standing. Perhaps something that mixes patriotism and voting, coordinated with perhaps an assasination of Saddam.
Posted by myDD @ 07/19/2002 05:39 PM PST
