07/19/2002 Archived Entry: "PA races:"
The GOV race in PA is becoming a blowout. Fisher has a lot of cash to spend, so will pull closer, but after his strong primary showing, this is Rendell's race:
With fourteen weeks to go before the voters of Pennsylvania cast their ballot, the latest KDKA-TV News poll conducted by SurveyUSA has Democrat Ed Rendell leading Republican Mike Fisher by 15 points, 54 percent to 39 percent. Rendell's lead has grown by three points, since the last KDKA-TV poll in June, which had Rendell ahead by 12 points, 51 percent to 39 percent. The latest poll, conducted on July 13, 14, and 15, has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.
Looking at the House races. Optimistic GOP leaders gerrymandered the districts to achieve a hopeful 13-6 GOP delegation. Here's the recent cash totals for the races. The Democrats are hoping to avoid that massacre by pulling out wins from amongst the races in the 6th, 15th, 17th, and 18th. The 18th can be scratched off the list. The Democrats did not get their best candidate, Mangino, out of the primary, and the Dem contender has little money. The 15th would be the next hardest, as Toomey has nearly a 3:1 cash lead, and has already beaten O'Brien before, likely GOP. This leaves the 6th and the 17th as the two most competitve races. In the 6th, Cheney was in PA raising funds for Gerlach, here's Woffords hit back, but that's short of the ~$300K that Cheney raked in for Gerlach. Rendell might have coattails for Wofford, so he shouldn't be counted out. In the 17th, Holden leads Gekas in funds, and has the Dems best shot. Holden is younger, campaigns harder, has more money and fits the district well. In fact, he probably should be favored to win. Statewide, at this point, I would predict a 12-7 outcome.
Replies: 9 comments
This is totally off-topic, so I'm sorry. I was wondering if someone could let me know where all the commenters from politicalwire.com have gone.
Posted by Nick @ 07/19/2002 06:46 AM PST
Hi Nick,
As near as I can tell, Teagan has decided to shut off the comments box, or is undergoing some changes... maybe it's just temporary, dunno. He's been fickle about the comments and stuff. Still good source for news though.
Posted by myDD @ 07/19/2002 09:10 AM PST
I am a bit off-topic, but I just wanted to know your opinion on the Maryland House race, Morella vs. Shriver. I saw a recent independent poll that had Morella ahead by 5 points. Just hope Shriver's fundraising and his last name can pull it out.
Posted by Richard Soto @ 07/19/2002 10:55 AM PST
Apart from anything else, it might be interesting to see what BushRep might make of this. ;)
Posted by UK Dem @ 07/19/2002 01:04 PM PST
hehe, UK Dem, I was thinking the same thing while I posted it.
Richard, I saw a poll recently that had Morella up as well. I don't think she can. Shapiro is actually gaining, but Shriver seems likely still. And I think he will beat Morella in this district.
Posted by myDD @ 07/19/2002 01:40 PM PST
For those of us who miss the give-and-take of Taegan's Political Wire, why not contact regulars (Stratagem and BushRep, etc. and suggest we continue the conversation here? Does anybody have their e-mail addresses?
Posted by Oregonian @ 07/21/2002 10:22 PM PST
I have e-mail addresses for Stratagem and Will from Political Wire.
myDD, this is your site, however, and I want to leave you as much control over it as is possible. Correct me if I'm wrong, but one difference between this site and PW is that while PW is technically neutral (but with a left lean in the posters), this site (although not strictly Democratic) does not care to be neutral.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 07/23/2002 10:56 AM PST
CA Pol Junkie,
All speech is value-laden. I am certainly anti-Bush and anti-social conservative wingnut. That just means I'm honest and upfront, and able to concentrate more on making the correct forecasts and having good insights, instead of focusing on some sort of illusive neutrality that gets in the way of knowing anything.
Posted by myDD @ 07/23/2002 11:28 AM PST
The Morella race would not be even close if the stocks do not recover. Rendell probably gets in.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/23/2002 01:13 PM PST
