07/21/2002 Archived Entry: "Bush's War on Iraq; October surprises"

I don't suspect that there will be much political resistance in the US to Bush doing whatever he wants with Iraq, whenever he wants. This isn't to say that it's 90% backing an unprovoked invasion, but at least 60%, probably 75%, back the dubious regime change argument, which is decisively anti-republican. As Bush rallies US for strike on Iraq, the only strong resistance will come from the middle east itself, and from Europe, specifically Britain. Blair, it's been argued, has been going along with Bush on this in order to temper the rhetoric with moderate action, i.e., stalling. Blair is being foolish in linking his political hide with Bush. A 'what we are waiting for is to be told the details of how and when and where' stance from Blair is so submissive, that he's bound to receive criticism and lose leadership credibility at home.

For Bush, Iraq is just the diversion he needs, but it's likely that this current splurge of "invading Iraq" news is only that-- divergent news. I can't imagine what they are thinking, to embark on such an invasion. Who knows, it might be successful, but it's hardly a worthy democratic precedent. As for a possible October surprise, getting Iraq and getting Laden are the obvious (though politically risky) moves, but here's something else.

Instead of the Cheney could be out in 2004 news, Cheney leaves in October of 2002. Or, better for Bush, Cheney dies. Bush gets a new VP, say Rice, or some other woman. Also, say Rehnquist announces his retirement, and Bush appoints a latino conservative to replace him. Bush also announces O'Connor as the next Chief Justice. These moves court latino's, women, and moderate voters. All three are key constituencies necessary for Democratic gains. These, more than the war moves, are the types of divide-and-defeat tactics that Rove deliberates, and have marked Bush's past successes in partisan politics.

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Bush has no chance of confirming a Supreme Court Justice, unless it is a Latino. Judge Luttig or Priscilla Owen would not make it. In fact, no white conservative has much of a chance...a white moderate may be..but a conservative has to be a minority.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/23/2002 01:10 PM PST