07/22/2002 Archived Entry: "NRSC news:"

Thune just barely ahead of Johnson in Republican polls
Challenger John Thune’s on top in South Dakota, as the latest polls show Thune up by one point. Democrat incumbent Tim Johnson is considered one of the most vulnerable Senators up for re-election this cycle, as survey after survey shows a dead heat. Thune leads Johnson 44 to 43 in the Public Opinion Strategies poll, conducted June 19-20, and July numbers from the Anderson Group have Thune’s lead widening, 45 to 43. “Few recent surveys have shown the race outside the margin of error,” Roll Call reports. Thune outraised Johnson “$1.5 million to $857,000, from April 1 to June 30. Thune also erased Johnson’s cash-on-hand lead,” with a $928,000 to $712,000 advantage as of June 30.

Allard ahead of Strickland
A Denver Post /KUSA-TV/KOA Radio poll; conducted 7/8-14 by Ciruli Assocs.; surveyed 601 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 7/22). Tested: Sen. Wayne Allard (R) and ex-U.S. Atty Tom Strickland (D).

General Election Matchup

Allard 46%
Strickland 37%
Undec. 16%

GOP Funny Page Polls

Public Opinion Learning Laboratory; Voter Consumer Research; Survey USA

Look out for these funny polls of "adults" not likely voters, and taking the cue from the GOP leaning polls by POA in 2000, done by machine. A good rule of thumb is, if there's no name on the poll it's probably crap.

Replies: 10 comments

I am still confident that Sen. Johnson will pull through with an extremely narrow victory this fall. I think in the end people will vote to keep Tom Daschle majority leader.

As for Allard. Although he is a very weak incumbent, Allard looks increasingly likely to win. Strickland has got to get momentum on his side if he is going to pull through in this race. He has never lead in this race and he had got to give Colorado voters a reason to send Allard packing.

Posted by Ced @ 07/23/2002 07:17 AM PST

The biggest difference between the Thune and Johnson numbers seems to be the undecideds, with Thune's campaign claiming there are more(10-12), and Johnson's that there are less(5-7). That lets us know one thing perhaps-- that the majority of undecideds are breaking for Johnson, at least right now.

Posted by myDD @ 07/23/2002 11:41 AM PST

Watch the Stock Markets. Allard is under 50. If the stocks get back to over 10,000 by end of September, Allard will win. If it is between 9,000 and 10,000 it would be a close race. If it is below 9,000 he is finished.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/23/2002 01:03 PM PST

Does anybody know how Carnahan is doing in terms of $ and polling? She's W's other major target (may he fail miserably.)

Posted by Oregonian @ 07/23/2002 05:40 PM PST

Here is the latest on Carnahan:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41727-2002Jul21.html

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/23/2002 06:59 PM PST

Does anyone know what happend to Teagen? Is there another site like that with the same set up?

Posted by PaGuy @ 07/23/2002 07:30 PM PST

mydd,

It has been my experience in political campaigns that undecideds will break for the challenger by a 9-1 so that is why I would still give Thune the advantage in this race. I don't see the Democrats making big gains in the senate 1 or 2 seats maybe. but right now I see Democrats making huge gains in the house.

Posted by Derrick Shapley @ 07/23/2002 10:04 PM PST

Undecideds indeed break for the challenger 9-1, which means if the current numbers hold up, the following would happen: SD, Minnesota and New Jersey would go for the GOP, while NH, Maine, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Colorado would go for the Democrats with Iowa and Missouri going either way. But, again as I have said watch the stock markets. A stock market below 9000 come early October does not augur well for the GOP.

In the House, GOP gerrymandering could keep GOP losses in low double digits given the state of the economy, but if the perception gets worse, it could be a sweep.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/24/2002 07:04 AM PST

PA Guy: Taegan decided (for now at least) to end the commentary option. I guess he felt it had "deteriorated" into a slug fest or something. Too bad. I kind of liked the slug fest! I miss all the scorn being heaped upon BushRep. :-).

GC Raj: Thanks for the info on Carnahan. This poll shows her up 48% to 40% -- not bad!

Posted by Oregonian @ 07/24/2002 10:15 AM PST

Here's a good article on CRAP polls:
http://www.politicsnj.com/torricelli072402.htm
http://muweb.millersville.edu/~politics/jan082002.htm

Posted by myDD @ 07/24/2002 03:25 PM PST