07/24/2002 Archived Entry: "TX Gov; 5th District:"
Though the latest CRAP Survey USA numbers showed Perry up by ~20 percent, the Sanchez internal polling numbers are quite different. They show him as having went from a 30% deficit from the beginning of his polling to now having a slight lead of 5% for their campaigns expected turnout. The adjusted (for historical turnout, "likeliness" of voting, etc.) numbers have Sanchez up by 2%. Consider what Chuck Todd had to say about competitiveness in Texas:
There's a lot of exaggeration when it comes to Texas politics. For instance, the blank assumption over the past decade that Texas is a slam-dunk Republican state shows that some folks were reacting to results rather than looking at the actual vote returns. The fact is, Texas is a "leans Republican" state -- and has been for more than 20 years. But it is not the reliably Republican state that analysts have been made to believe. Remember, five of the last six presidential elections have featured Texans on the GOP ballot, and that obviously has skewed some statewide numbers over the years. To understand why Texas is in play this campaign season (and will be for years to come), then remember the number "44." That's the percentage of the electorate Gramm's Democratic foe, Victor Morales, received in 1996. And Morales did it essentially on surname and party ID alone because Gramm outspent him by a ratio of 14-1.
I'm not saying the Sanchez internal numbers are correct, but they are probably more accurate than anything coming from Suvey USA, which doesn't even bother with being bilingual. And remember, this is who was 21 points off in the Texas Senate primary earlier this year.
Chapman vs Hensarling
Hensarling continues to underperform, though I think at some point he'll engage in the race with negative advertising. He has no choice, in the new (D) poll out, Chapman has increased his lead from before, of 41-39 over Hensarling:
Chapman took 43 percent to Hensarling's 37 percent in the survey conducted byBennett Petts Blumenthal. The poll was in the field from July 10 to 15, testing 450 registered voters with a 4.9 percent margin of error.
Replies: 4 comments
I don't believe the Survey USA results are even near accurate. All recent polling has the race within about 8-10 pts. And the fact that Sanchez's campaign has him in the lead shows how off Survey USA is off.
I just don't believe that any campaign would try and fool itself into thinking that it has a lead. If a campaign did so they are just fooling themselves and wasting their own time and money. They will be in for a major suprise on election day.
Posted by Ced @ 07/25/2002 05:42 AM PST
Hey Ced, great to see you again! I'm glad at least some of us found an exile... :)
My cousin (a successful attorney in Texas)is a big Sanchez backer, and he says that Sanchez is registering thousands of new minority voters. I think Sanchez, if he can GOTV, can win, and possibly lift Kirk to victory as well. It would be superb for the Democrats for Chapman to win, although I doubt it-Hensarling should win with TV ads by the bucketsfull.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 07/25/2002 08:59 AM PST
Thanks Mr. Liberal
I surely hope that he can do it. It would make my day to see both Ron Kirk and Tony Sanchez beat the Bush backed Perry and Coryn.
Posted by Ced @ 07/25/2002 10:02 AM PST
I was in Texas last week. Perry has major problems. Car dealers and doctors who generally vote GOP are turning against him over some vetos the governor had cast. I think that the Houston Poll had it right...Perry is under 50, but still ahead of Sanchez. As far as Enron John is concerned, I met people (of all races, although majority white) who felt that he should be in jail and not in the Senate due to his Enron dealings. But, Enron John has a big trump card which Kirk lacks...the color of his skin. If he wins it would be very clear that white privilege still holds sway in Texas...he cannot win on merits. The results would give us a clear indication whether Texas is still a very racist state or is beginning to change and enter the twenty first century! By the way, I was also in Idaho...and I do not expect it to enter the twenty first century anytime soon.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/25/2002 11:58 AM PST
