07/25/2002 Archived Entry: "Karl Rove is "dead wrong""
Adapted from their forthcoming book, "The Emerging Democratic Majority," authors John Judis and Ruy Teixeira, Majority Rules. If the Democrats takeover both sides of Congress around the time when this is released, sales are going to skyrocket.
Replies: 19 comments
Ruy Texeira's Coming "Democratic Majority", and Dick Morris's "GOP Running Out of White People,"....
....http://www.hillnews.com/072402/morris.shtm
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/25/2002 03:12 PM PST
http://www.hillnews.com/072402/morris.shtm
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/25/2002 03:13 PM PST
This article is an excellent general analysis of the trends, as it happens to describe very well the evolution of the Bay Area, as well-educated professionals have transformed once staunchly Republican suburbs to swing and Democratic leaning areas.
The basic idea is not so much that one party is gaining favor, but ideology is transforming. The political parties will inevitably maneuver to try to corral an ideological majority, and the Democratic Party is currently sitting in the right place relative to the trends. Dick Morris is on drugs if he thinks the Republican Party can change any time in the near future. They need to get their butt kicked a few times, as the Democrats were in 1980, 1984, and 1988 before they will make the necessary transformation. Look for a "New Republican" candidate in 2016. Exactly what ideology that candidate will bring is anyone's guess...
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 07/25/2002 04:34 PM PST
This is a fascinating article and it gives me great hope. My parents, who are fairly well-off white suburbanites in the East Bay Area of Calif. voted for Reagan because they were scared by the Carter economy. They were subsequently sufficiently sickened by the Republican right-wing (particularly its anti-environmental and anti-abortion policies) to swing back firmly to the Democratic column in 1992; they've been there ever since. Similar scenarios are happening on a grand scale which is not good news for the GOP. I believe that party picked the wrong strategy, perhaps winning a few battles in the 80s and 90s but ultimately, I hope, losing the war.
Posted by Oregonian @ 07/25/2002 05:19 PM PST
The problem with the Dick Morris article is that he emphaisizes the role of the minorities in the decline of the GOP. Only 65% of the whites voted GOP in 2000. And in states such as Oregon (perhaps the Oregonian can shed more light on this) at least half the whites voted for the Democrats. The same is true of Washington State. Meanwhile in heavily white states (97%) such as Maine and Vermont, 60% of the whites went for the Democrats. Perhaps the GOP instead of blaming minorities for their possible demise should try convincing the whites to vote for them. However, I think it would be a tougher sell to convince whites in Vermont to vote for the Democrats than Hispanics down south. In philosophy there is more in common between the Hispanics and whites in Texas, than between the Texas whites and Vermont whites, but the white bigotry (the Southern Strategy), or precisely the Texas GOP's bigotry drives them away. For instance please take a look at the 2000 Texas GOP Party Platform. It is so full of bigotry that even GW did not show up for its unveiling.
There are several New Republicans: Chuck Hagel, Sam Brownback and even Chris Cannon of Utah, and on immigration issues even Orrin Hatch is not too bad. You can add to this Olympia Snowe and Lincoln Chaffee. However, the party is dominated by the likes of Tom DeLay, George Nethercutt, Mike Simpson and Tom Tancredo (the anti-Asian-too many Asian women chased "our" boys in California, say his white flight constituents- and anti-immigrant Congressman) from Colorado, who has joined with the other bigot in liberal clothing the former Governor of Colorado, Richard Lamm (who once said that all old people would be better off dead). The issue is whether Chuck Hagel or Sam Brownback can take the nomination. Under present circumstances, I think not.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/25/2002 05:51 PM PST
I can't wait to see what happens in Texas. If the Democrats can successfully bring together Whites, Blacks, and Latinos voters to win back the governor's race and a Senate seat in the President's home state then I take that as a major setback to Republicans.
Posted by Ced @ 07/26/2002 06:12 AM PST
Has this become the new "political wire"? Does anyone know what happened at PW, and if the absence of comments is just a short-term problem or a permanent thing?
Posted by Alan @ 07/26/2002 11:53 AM PST
G.C. Raj: Right after the 2000 election, the Republicans were crowing that they'd come within a few thousand votes of a Bush victory in Oregon (I think the margin was 6,500 or something like that). I don't think, however, they were considering the substantial portion of the vote that went to Nader here.
I've heard people ponder the fact that conservative Californians are fleeing that state for the Northwest, which is probably true in the rural parts of the state. They think that bodes well for the Repubs here. On the other hand, I know for a fact that thousands of moderates and liberals have moved and are moving to the Willamette Valley (which contains Portland, Salem & Eugene), largely for lifestyle reasons. There is a substantial number of us transplants here, and plenty of us used to live in cosmopolitan areas such as the Bay Area, LA, and the East Coast. We move here to escape the housing crisis and crowding of Calif. and the East while still being close to mountains, forests, deserts, and beaches and to have easy access to the pleasures of city life -- bookstores, cafes, restaurants, the arts etc. We are socially liberal -- extremely so in many cases.
This state is still approx. 80 % white, but we have 4 Democrats to 1 Repub. in our Congressional delegation; our governor is a Dem. and we expect that his heir will be Kulongoski (a Democrat). Our Senate delegation is split (Wyden -D and Smith - R). In short, I can't see Oregon going Republican in the future; if anything, the Democratic party will probably strengthen here, and its greatest threat could be the Greens rather than the lumbering GOP.
Posted by Oregonian @ 07/26/2002 02:42 PM PST
Oregonian:
The racist Californinans are going to Idaho and the communities west of Denver (Evergreen and Littleton)...many of them running away from Asians. Several have also moved to Utah and Montana. I was in Boise, Idaho last week for a day. They definitely do not like Asians out there. The white flighters have also settled in Eastern Washington..Spokane, Kennewick, Walla Walla and Richland and to some extent around Pendleton and Bend, Oregon. Tom Foley used to represent Eastern Washington, and now it may be gone for good as far as the Dems are concerned. Idaho used to have progressive Democrats..Governor Cecil Andrus, Governor John Evans and Senator Frank Church...now it has become GOP with the likes of Mark Fuhrman...and anti-minority, particularly anti-Asian.
"This state is still approx. 80 % white..."
Not the same kind of whites as I encountered in Idaho or for that matter in the US South. What bothers me is that everyone including Morris puts the "blame for GOP demise" on the minorities...why dont they ask a simple question: why have whites who voted for Reagan in Vermont, Maine, New York, Oregon and Washington now moved solidly towards the Democrats. Look...Minorities have generally voted for Dems in recent years. The big change is in the way the white northerners and white folks in Washington and Oregon vote. I think GOP has a bigger Northern Problem than a Hispanic problem. Perhaps they need a Northern Strategy?
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/26/2002 02:57 PM PST
Another thing you have to look at about the future affect of minority voters in the long time is if any of the commonwealths become part of the United states. if this happens the GOP would basically be force to adopt more moderate tones
Posted by Derrick @ 07/26/2002 11:02 PM PST
I have always said that if we include the Commonwealths in five years, and stop all immigration, everyone would become a minority in this country. Coversely, if more folks from PR and USVI move to Florida, even without immigration, Florida would become like California.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/27/2002 01:22 PM PST
Perhaps this is the flight of the GOP Dodo Bird...Great Family Values these characters have, splitting up the family. What a joke!
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2002/07/27/MN56869.DTL
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/28/2002 08:24 AM PST
Calling these guys an economics team...or even a brain less economics team is an insult to the economics profession!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8122-2002Jul26.html
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 07/28/2002 01:02 PM PST
Enron John's shennanigans once again! So much for minority outreach of the Texas GOP! Or is it pure racism?
http://www.rollcall.com/pages/politics/btl/
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 07/29/2002 06:40 AM PST
G.C. Raj,
Very good points about the anti-Asian sentiments. I reside in the San Gabriel Valley and attend school at U.C.L.A. Both my hometown, often derisively called Arcasia instead of Arcadia and my school are heavily Asian. Indeed, in my area, there are strong anti-asian sentiments.
The cities in my area that are most heavily Asian are high-end...San Marino and Arcadia (forgive my use of specific city names of which most are completely unfamiliar). Unfortunately, I know many individuals who make fun of the Asian community and are angered by all of the establishments that have popped up, with large chinese characters, that are geared towards the large clientele.
As a result, there has been a lot of white flight to outer suburbs like Glendora and beyond in the inland empire. Its interesting that redistricting put both the heavily asian communities and the white flight havens all in Republican David Drier's district. The reason, of course, is that all the cities are heavily republican because of wealth in the case of the Asian-enriched cities and ideology, in the case of the outer suburbs...it's, btw, one of only two republican districts that encroach in L.A. county.
In any case, if Republican white flighters and their congressmen continue to instigate the Asian community (which currently does not have high voter participation but is bound to in the future), then there could be major consequences, considering the fact that the Asian vote is currently split evenly between democrats and republicans. it seems to me that younger generations of asian americans, who tend to be more culturally liberal, trend democratic anyway, and, of course, they probably will participate more since their parents may not be naturalized.
Another note on why dealing with the Asian population is different for whites is that it doesnt follow the typical pattern of a ghettoized immigrant group living in a poor area, "americanizing," and after abandoning most of their culture and language, slowly integrating into the white suburbs. Instead, they choose to move en masse into the neighborhoods of choice. Its also interesting that there are probably quite a few more multicultural asian-caucasian families than there are with other minority groups. This can cause more resentment too.
Anyway, I wonder whether there is going to be a cultural war with the Asian community as there has been in the past with blacks and with hispanics that can push the asian community towards one party or the other. I hope that it does not happen because they tend to be nasty, but, unfortunately, it seems like it just might.
Posted by Sean023 @ 07/29/2002 08:44 PM PST
Drier has been reasonably pro-immigrant at least in recent years...now I know why...he is also serving an Asian clientele. The white flighters who flee from Asians are mostly afraid of competition...and yes..I understand your point..as is evident from the bitter people I spoke to in Evergreen, CO (most white California transplants there fled the Asians and reminisce about when the beaches were full of blonde surfers) and Boise, Idaho...many do not like the idea of multicultural families. However, in Hawaii it is the reverse...guess they all learn the bad habits of the country as they assimilate...I met many young Asians (mostly women) who told me that they would never vote for a white person at least in the state and local elections. Too bad! With the mess created by the incompetent Bush economics team (white or otherwise), we can use all the help we can get (white or otherwise)!
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 07/30/2002 07:15 AM PST
Mitch "the mess maker" Daniels...as usual. Whitcover says that a man "named Herbert Hoover tried that and look what it got him" about the Mess Maker trying to talk up the eonomy. May I also remind folks that this is the first time that an administration does not have a qualified economist since the Hoover Administration nearly 75 years ago. At that time there were well qualified economists such as Viner, Hotelling and Haberler (not very different from the present situation)..but Hoover decided to give jobs to his unqualified cronies (as Bush is doing at present).
http://www.sunspot.net/news/opinion/bal-op.witcover29jul29.column?coll=bal%2Dpe%2Dopinion
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 07/30/2002 08:02 AM PST
Sean023,
Good analysis. As the New Republic article shows, Asians of all ethnic backgrounds are rapidly deserting the GOP.
As late as 1992 Asians supported Bush Sr. by a 52-37% margin. The GOP attacks on the so-called " Buddhist Temple" scandal and the unfounded charges of Chinese influence on the Clinton-Gore campaign did far more damage to the GOP in the long run than any short term gains they may have gotten
Th Chinese vote which was the most solid GOP voting block among Asians, voted for Gore in 2000. The Chinese are another group run out of the southern fundamentalist GOP.
Strom Thurmond voted against statehood for Hawaii in 1958 because he did not want to admit a state that was majority non-white.
Posted by TOM @ 07/30/2002 11:30 AM PST
I agree with many of the posters here who argue that the GOP's "Northern problem" is as big as its "minority problem." In 2000, whites voted for Bush by an unimpressive margin of 52% to 43%. Most of this relatively narrow margin came from Southern whites (who voted more than 60% for Bush). So, the white electorate in the North (which includes many liberal professionals and/or union members) was essentially evenly divided between Bush and Gore. Assuming that the GOP will be unable to get more than 30% of the combined vote of minorities (of which there is currently no valid evidence of the contrary), the Democrats only need about 43% to 45% of the white vote to win. Being that so many Northern suburbanites have fled the GOP since 1992 due to its close identification with right-wing fundamentalists and Southerners, this seems to be a relatively easy task.
Posted by MrB @ 08/01/2002 07:57 AM PST
