08/03/2002 Archived Entry: "Second-Tier Takeovers: SD, FL-13th"

At this point in the season, we are starting to see likely races that don't look so likely after all, now just leaning. Two such races are the House Republican-held seats which are open in the at-large seat for SD and the FL-13th CD. Jankalow and Harris would/should be sure bets, and even still, the races still must lean toward them, but questions are beginning to emerge. Here's what the DCCC sent out on the SD race between Herseth and Jankalow:

SD-AL - Janklow In Trouble, Current Office Holding Him Back

Congress Daily AM reports, "…Recent polls show this race to be very tight. Two recent statewide polls conducted for Democratic candidates showed [GOP Governor Bill] Janklow and [Democratic Candidate Stephanie] Herseth tied. Reports of Republican polls also show a tight race. Partly as a result, the Cook Political Report recently changed its rating on this race… to 'toss-up'…Herseth boasts an impressive political pedigree…and…one theory suggests that in the current political climate, a sitting governor does not carry the same cache as he would in better times." [Congress Daily AM, 7/23/02]

This would be quite a fall for Jankalow. The spoof, Who Will Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election? found Jankalow the leading contender. From those heady times, Jankalow dipped into the ultra-partisan politics by pushing for and signing into law a bill forbidding Tom Daschle from running simultaneously for president and Senate re-election in 2004; and shortly thereafter, JANKLOW'S JEEPS became the story, and that was real political damage. Amidst a fairly rough GOP primary, Stephanie Herseth ran the most perfect set of campaign ads seen this cycle. Can she win, maybe, but consider what this SD resident had to say about Lee Williams investigative reporting in the Argus Leader on Jankalow's Jeeps:

You’d think that after all these years, Lee would have learned that you can’t go after our Governor. Doesn’t he know that Governor Billy-Bob can do whatever he wants? So what if he used some inside knowledge to buy a few jeeps at a discounted price to add to his collection? Who cares if he used state computers to post a few online ads...even if he previously fired a few government employees for doing almost the exact same thing? It’s Governor Billy-Bob! He’s our supreme leader! Just ask him!

Lee, greater men have come before you to try to bring down Mr. Janklow. He invented the term “youthful transgressions” years before George W. to explain some controversial behavior in the 70’s. He got away with selling video lottery stock hours before they were temporarily turned off a few years ago. Lee, do you really think a few Jeeps and online fun are going to bring him down?

Perhaps that's true. Pressler, to no avail, used television ads criticizing Janklow for buying three Jeeps that had been seized as evidence in a federal auto-theft case. The truth is though, that over half the voters decide to vote for who they like, and Herseth seems very fresh and likable, while the Jankalow debacle might be getting a bit stale with the voters.

And this brings us to the flip-side of the equation-- the "Anybody But Katherine" vote. We'll know Sept 10th how strong this movement is. Anything less than 75% of the primary vote would not bode well for Harris, especially if the dog Percy breaks into double-digits as a write-in candidate. The recent on-but-off resignation stories are all over the nationals, Harris's Hanging Chad: Does Resignation Count? but still, the general consensus is that the Harris' Candidacy Is Considered Secure Despite Misstep. I am not so sure, and have harbored doubts on her candidacy for some time now. Compared to the locals, the national papers are playing footsies with Harris. It's rough down in Florida for Harris:

Standing on a package of copy paper before a podium in the same Cabinet room where she declared the president, Harris began by reading a lengthy letter she wrote to the governor. As reporters questioned the legality of her actions during the two weeks since she was technically out of office, aides stepped in and began hustling her out of the room. Assistant Secretary of State Dave Mann knocked off tape recorders and microphones that reporters had placed on the podium as he took Harris by the arm and began escorting her out of the room. Harris repeatedly said she was the "de facto secretary," even as she was rushed out of the room and into a private office with about a dozen reporters in pursuit.

Theres' a real sense of blood in the water from this story. Jeb Bush went from Harris as the "de facto" Secretary until September to flip-flopping himself and replacing her within a newscycle, Florida governor fills Katherine Harris' vacancy. As for legally challenging her ballot spot, the Democrats in Florida should take their cue from the MA Dems, who failed to knock off Romney and instead defused the residency issue, by letting it simmer instead of letting her off the hook with an unlikely lawsuit.

The Florida Democratic Party has been calling for Katherine Harris’ resignation for a long time, and that's just what this comes down to in terms of perception. They have gotten what they never dreamed was possible. She's resigned amidst a scandal saying, "I should have read the law. I didn't." This will tail her for the remainder of the race.

The two front-runners for the Democratic nomination are Candice Brown McElyea and Jan Schneider. Charles McKenzie hasn't been in the forefront, and Patrick Feheley hasn't either, except to attack the hypen in Brown-McElyea. McElyea has run a strong campaign so far, getting more endorsements and free press then Schneider, who's campaign manager just quit. When one of them gains the nomination, they will be way underfunded compared to Harris, but a lot of voters there in the Sarasota area are going to be looking for a reason to vote for Anyone But Katherine.

On a side note, check out this parting shot by Harris to title the Democratic Governor ballot entry with "Vote for One Pair," ensuring overvotes.

Replies: 5 comments

I wouldn't be suprised to see Herseth pull an upset in this race. I think Janklow's time has gone. 16 years as governor is enough.

Posted by Ced @ 08/04/2002 11:21 AM PST

I'm rooting for Herseth too. Out with the trash already....

I would like to see Larry Flynt or the Enquirer go after K. Harris's sex life. She seems so much the bitchy and sly kept woman type, there has to be a married man or two in the picture. I doubt it's Jebbie, but it will be good fun to find out.

Posted by C.D. @ 08/04/2002 05:49 PM PST

Harris...pretty much a low life. Perhaps Flint would be better off going after Senator Tim "the Philandering" Huthcinson's sex life. I am pretty sure that this "apostle of family values" has a lot of dirt.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/05/2002 11:53 AM PST

Yeah, but that wouldn't change Hutchinson's situation much. Harris...it would give people yet another reason to find her too much of an embarrassment to vote for. I don't have real hope that this Sarasota district will elect a Democrat unless there is absolutely no viable Republican, but knocking off another apparatchik of the Immoralist Right sounds pretty good to me.

Posted by C.D. @ 08/05/2002 05:27 PM PST

Katherine Harris is one of the stupidest people in politics. Only Trent Lott mines the same depths of idiocy.

Posted by Adam @ 08/10/2002 03:07 AM PST