08/04/2002 Archived Entry: "The Emerging Democratic Plurality"

Lot's of interesting responses from the Karl Rove is "dead wrong" entry. It's much easier to make the fleeing from the GOP case than it is the emerging Democratic majority. Typically, when a new majority comes forth, it's amidst a noticeable increase in the number of voters that are surrounding the phenomenon that is encapsulated by the Party. Judis & Teixeira seemingly have strands of growth that they point out for the Democratic Party, but is this really a case where the sum is larger than the parts? It seems just as valid an argument, given the shrinkage of the Democratic Party nationwide, that what has seeded the Democrats success is the even greater failure by the Republican Party, especially concerning black, latino, and asian voters. Not to write-off the inclusiveness that the Democratic Party has created, but amidst the increased intolerance of the GOP, it was sure a lot easier for the Democratic gains to be made. There remains a center unquenched by this emergence.

MN continues to be the laboratory for this new center to emerge. When Ventura was elected in 1998, there was a surge in new voters. As FIFTY-FIFTY AMERICA: The Weakened Parties--GOP, Democrats Locked In Race Toward Decline points out:

Here, as elsewhere, the deciding votes belong to cultural moderates, voters for whom personal appeal means everything; party label means nothing. In fact, in Minnesota, this group is large enough to choose None of the Above. If Penny is elected governor in November, he will be the second independent in a row elected to the state's highest office. Incumbent Jesse Ventura, who has opted out of this year's race, trounced the two traditional parties in 1998...

In fact, Penny would be the third governor in a row elected without a major party endorsement in Minnesota. (Republican Arne Carlson failed to win his party's endorsement in 1994.) They say three in a row makes a trend. And that trend, while highlighted in Minnesota, is visible nationwide. For the first time in more than 100 years, America has gone three consecutive presidential elections without anyone winning a majority of the popular vote.

Penny and a lot of those running with the Independence Party would be very comfortable in The Third Way. which represents a Republican-lite to so many on the left. Meanwhile Republican Mainstreamers look like RINO's for those on the right. The socially tolerant and fiscally responsible trend certainly vibes with the new center.

How Independent Are Independents? has some nuggets of truth that speak about those voters who brought Ventura to power:

And the stalwart 6 percent who are true independents? They do split – about a third for each party and another third who don't know or say they won't vote. "Pure independents are very different than independent leaners," Magleby said. "Pure independents do march to their own beat. They are volatile. They have the lowest rates of turnout."

What's happening in MN is not necessarily true for the US, but the authors succinctly recognize the process that has brought MN to it's current state of tripartisan gov't:

Politicians and analysts describe a cyclonic downward spiral that threatens to spin both the DFL and the Republicans farther and farther from the majority. The caucus system used by Minnesota parties to choose their candidates -- once a model of kaffee-klatsch democracy -- attracts fewer participants each year. As a result, direction of the parties has become more and more concentrated in the hands of True Believers. On the Republican side, power is held by Christian conservatives and anti-government ideologues; on the Democratic, the steering is mostly done by labor, environmentalists and aggrieved minorities.

When these factions then choose rigidly partisan candidates, they drive loosely aligned voters away from the parties. That, in turn, spells even less diversity in the caucuses, which produces even more orthodox candidates, leading to further disaffection in the middle -- and so on.

That leaves the middle 30% without a candidate. Amidst those those are the irritated voters who've lost a lot of money; they're older, either close to retirement or retired, and they're mad as hell, says Luntz, and have the GOP Running Scared in the House.

They might well bring a Democratic Majority into congressional power this year, but will it last? Even amidst this center formation, the Libertarians, Greens, and Constitutionalists are growing. Out of the fracturing, something different will emerge. It's hard to tell what's going on exactly. Something new is emerging. I won't be so quick as to conclude that it will take it's shape from the current formation in control.

Replies: 2 comments

A great example of George W. Bush's compassionate conservatism...orphans are "intending immigrants" and hence to be denied visas. Also it is a great commitment to the Thousand Points of light that his old man professed...where families took care of poor people's needs.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41124-2002Aug3.html

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/05/2002 07:45 AM PST

Large lead for Collins in Maine but still under 50.

http://www.mainetoday.com/elections/2002/news/020804congpoll.shtml

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/05/2002 10:25 AM PST