08/05/2002 Archived Entry: "Democratic Takoever of the House: Consequence$"

It's the writing on the web, it's likely, it's probably going to happen. I'm reminded of this every time I visit Daily Kos, who has the daily reminder "Speaker Gephardt in 91 days" in the upper corner. This AP analysis, Billions in Federal Spending Shifted to GOP Districts After 1994 House Takeover brings up an important fact of consequence that would occur. And so, what's important is which Democrats will be in the top positions of power, and that really frightens the Republicans.

The Republicans in Michigan who gerrymandered Dingell into a shared district with Rivers thought they were pretty nifty. Seen from their top-down perspective, Rivers would have to fold to Dingell, because that's the way things work. Well, in the Democratic Party, it's not. If Rivers beats Dingell and the Democrats do in fact takeover the House this fall, it means the Republican Party will have royally screwed the state of Michigan, especially Ford.

John Dingell is the Ranking Member of the full Committee. Which committee? That'd be the Committee on Energy and Commerce. The jurisdiction of the committee is immense, and would mean wad's of energy research funds going to Michigan if Dingell were to become Chairman of the committee. Instead, Chairman Tauzin may be stepping aside for Chairman HENRY A. WAXMAN. This can of whoop-ass that the MI Republicans have might be unleashing on their own Has Big Biz Sweating:

As the top Democrat on the powerful House Energy & Commerce Committee, Representative Dingell has doggedly guarded Detroit's interests for decades, blocking tougher fuel-economy standards and clean-air laws... Sweaty-palmed executives concede they aren't particularly enamored of Dingell, who was first elected in 1955 and is the longest-serving House member. But they are terrified of the man who sits to Dingell's left on Energy & Commerce: Representative Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.). A fiery antagonist of corporate interests, Waxman is first in line to take the panel's top Democratic seat if Dingell loses. Even worse, should Dems win control of the closely divided House, Waxman could become chairman.

If you believe corporate lobbyists, Waxman has never met a regulation he didn't like. And about a third of all legislation flows through Energy & Commerce. "Nobody has to convince business that it's better off with John Dingell than with Henry Waxman," says Bernadette A. Budde, senior vice-president of the Business-Industry Political Action Committee, a fund-raising group.

Rothenburg had this race called pretty square back in February, Dingell vs. Rivers: An Entertaining Study in Contrasts. As he noted, EMILY's had yet to put money into Rivers coffers at the time, but by now they have, and are the reason for her being so strong that the case can be made that the Hottest Congressional Race Turns on Women's Issues. EMILY's has been big for Granholm as well, and her getting women voters to the polls helps Rivers. Here's their synopsis on the race, opportunities in safe House seats:

Rivers and Dingell differ significantly in style, background and issues. Dingell, ranking member of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee, has been described as "the premier gun-lover in the House"; he has voted against a woman's right to choose and has a mixed record on the environment. Rivers has a strong progressive record in Congress, consistently voting to protect choice, pass gun safety legislation, and protect the environment.

"Conventional wisdom in Washington can't imagine that Dingell could lose," says Malcolm, "but we know better." An EMILY's List poll conducted by the Feldman Group clearly demonstrates that Rivers beats Dingell after voters hear a positive biographical description of both, and voters moved overwhelmingly to Rivers after hearing the contrasts between their views on choice, the environment, and gun safety.

The Sierra Club has also been a big contributor for Rivers, Michigan's veteran Rep. Dingell in election battle:

The auto industry and labor unions, fearful of losing a strong voice in Washington, have thrown their resources behind Dingell. They are also afraid of of dealing with Dingell's likely successor on the Energy and Commerce Committee -- California's Henry Waxman, who has pushed for tighter automotive emissions.

A Chairman Waxman would be just one of the cataclysmic shifts that would occur next January under Democratic Majority Leadership in the House. To date, Davis and the partisan Republicans have been touting the MI redistricting gerrymader as their greatest success in the 2000 reapportionment. As it plays out, the greater screw could turn on the corporate interests, especially in Michgan. And you were wondering why the Republicans are nominating a guy named Posthumus for Governor? Write the obit.

Replies: 2 comments

The writing is probably on the wall and the web. The Ipos-Reid poll which has consistently showed the GOP in the lead (even as other polls showed the race tied) is now showing the Dems in lead by 5 in early August. Another stock market collapse between now and sometime in October could well put the final nail on the coffin, despite Bush's attempts to shift attention back to War on Terrorism, Iraq or lately, the despicable child kidnappers and killers of America.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/06/2002 06:34 AM PST

I just wanted to say that your blog is great and that I read it often...Now, if only we could get paid for this kind of thing...sigh.

Philip Shropshire
www.threerivertechreview.com
www.majic12.com

Posted by Philip Shropshire @ 08/07/2002 12:36 AM PST