08/07/2002 Archived Entry: "MI, KS Contest Results, Next Primary contests"
We had 10 entrants making election forecasts amongst the 5 primary contests. Here are the standings:
Kansas
Republican Gov: Shallenburger 42% Kerr 29% Knight 26% Bloom 3%
7 pundits chose Shallenburger correctly, top 4:
1. Brown 41%; myDD 41%
2. Ced 40%; MississippiDem 40%
3rd Republican CD: Taft 51% Colyer 49%
Not a single pundit correctly predicted Taft as the winner.
Michigan
Democratic Gov Primary:Granholm 48% Bonior 28% Blanchard 24%
All 10 pundits correctly predicted Granholm, top 3:
1. CA Pol Junkie: Granholm 47% Bonior 29% Blanchard 24%
3. myDD: Granholm 46% Bonior 31% Blanchard 23%
2. Ced: Granholm 45% Bonior 30% Blanchard 25%
Republican Gov Primary: Posthumus 81% Schwartz 19%
8 pundits correctly predicted Posthumus, top 3:
1. MississippiDem: Posthumus 82% Schwartz 18%
2. RSB: Posthumus 80% Scwartz 20%
3. GaDem: Posthumus 80%
15th Democratic CD: Dingell 59% Rivers 41%
Only 4 pundits correctly predicted Dingell (ultimate tiebreaker is who posted first):
1. CA Pol Junkie: Dingell 53% Rivers 47%
1. MississippiDem: Dingell 53% Rivers 47%
3. Ced: Dingell 52% River 48%
Overall Record:
MississippiDem: 4-1
Brown: 4-1
Ced: 4-0
CA Pol Junkie: 4-0
RSB: 3-2
myDD: 3-2
C.D.: 3-2
GaDem: 2-0
Daniel D: 1-1
TOM: 1-1
Dingell just crushed Rivers. It may have been the late attack ad that he used with a woman's voice, talking about how little Rivers had achieved, leaving her only to attact Dingell, hows that for an covert attack ad. Rivers did not respond effectively, and the GOTV effort for Dingell was strong. A Nominee With Vigor Gives Michigan Democrats Hope, Granholm won very strongly, and is favored over Posthumus in the General. Taff won on the ground, while we all went with the DC pick, GOP leaders in Kansas endorsed Taff, which may have been the difference. Mason-Dixon had a very bad poll effort in this race, predicting Knight, but with many undecided voters, who just didn't show up to vote. Shallenburger had a poll done, provided on his website, that very closely resembled the results, showing that his voters were more likely to vote. Sebelius starts off with the slight lean, but the M-D poll that showed Sebelius ahead of Shallenburger by double-digits will need to be verified.
The next primary contest will be for Colorado next Tuesday. Predictions will be made for the primary contest in the open 7th district for each party. I'll have this up in a couple of days. Congrats to those who scored 4 correct picks.
Replies: 5 comments
Now on to Georgia...and can we really afford to have this guy as a Congressman?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020807/ap_wo_en_po/us_congressman_pistol_2
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 08/07/2002 10:38 AM PST
G.C. Raj -
That article was pretty scary, especially the quote (not Barr):
"Nobody was in any danger. We were handling it safely, except that it was loaded,"
Barr may be a nut, but I think there is a positive role for nuts in Congress. A couple months ago, Barr was at a press conference on the Capitol steps with a bunch of Democrats - something about the federal government invading citizens' privacy, I think - and it made me realize that nuts draw attention to unpopular causes, but occasionally they are right. Zell Miller thought Cynthia McKinney was nuts when she said Bush knew more than he'd let on before 9/11, and she turned out to be right. Granted, nuts can be destructive as well, but I think it's good to have a couple on each side of the aisle to say things nobody else will.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 08/07/2002 11:00 AM PST
I agree that on the issue of privacy and White House secrecy Barr has been taking on the nuts in the White House along with the Democrats. As far as Zell Miller is concerned, he is a nut of a kind as well.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/07/2002 03:00 PM PST
I made the mistake of forgetting about Michigans crossover primary vote. That was how George Wallace won the Michigan Presidential primary in 1972.
In a low turnout primary, I will never again underestimate the organizational ability of the UAW.
I was in Atlanta this weekend and talked to a lady wearing a Diane Majette button. She was a Republican and was planning to vote for her in the primary.
I was giving this one to McKinney, but now I'm not so sure.
Posted by TOM @ 08/08/2002 06:14 AM PST
The unions have not traditionally been very good about organizing to GOTV for primaries, this obviously changed in the 15th this year, a somewhat surprising treend-changer. But I would bet that the economic trend against Ford and others that would have ensued was a big motivator, especially for the crossovers, besides the social issues.
McCain also won in MI during the 2000 GOP primaries, because of crossover.
Posted by myDD @ 08/08/2002 08:17 AM PST
