08/11/2002 Archived Entry: "PA Elections: CD outlook 2002, Senate 2004"
The election season in Pennsylvania is always competitive. The question this year is-- what's going to give? Right now, Rendell is projected to win by double-digits in the polls, while the Republicans are hoping to at least win 13, and possibly 14, out of the 19 congressional districts. Gore beat Bush by 4 percent in 2000, with Nadar grasping 2 percent, and the candidates to the right, 1 percent.
The latest statewide poll of the PA Governor's Race, which is CRAP, shows:
Ed Rendell (D): 52%
Mike Fisher (R): 38%
Other: 8%
Undecided: 3%
Is it possible that the GOP could win all 13, or 14 CD's while losing the Governor's race by double-digits? I don't think it's likely. Something is going to have to give. Either Fisher's numbers are going to improve and the GOP wins 13-14 of the CD's, or Rendell tromps and the GOP will only win 11-12 of the 19 CD's. Referring to my earlier post, PA races, I only consider the 6th, 15th, and 17th as possible Democratic upsets. To that should be added the 13th, where the GOP has a shot at an upset. These are the only 4 competitive House seats in PA for 2002. Either party could win all 4 elections. The final partisan makeup will be Republican-led, but it will range from 14-5 to 11-8.
There is of course the possibility of split-ticket voting, especially given the 'Rendellicans' whom cross party lines that Rendell hopes he can repeat in the Midstate area which is crucial to '02 race. If Fisher is unable to close the gap, Republicans will be working overtime to promote citizenry to split their vote:
"What you are going to see in southeast Pennsylvania is a lot of Republicans voting for Rendell," said U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican. He added, though, that he hoped Rendell Republicans "looking to come back to their party" might split their vote and choose GOP candidates for Congress.
"We need people to turn out and vote for me and to re-elect Congressman Tim Holden," Rendell told the county Democrats picnicking on City Island. "Because we probably can't win Dauphin County, but there is all the difference in the world, for both campaigns, between getting 38 percent of the vote here and getting 45 percent of the vote."
An exceptional Rendell performance could translate into Wofford and Holden victories in those two places. The WA Post has an article today on the latter, Pa. House Candidates Vie For Agricultural Correctness. In the 15th, Toomey has a large cash-on-hand lead over O'Brien, and is likely to win re-election. However, O'Brien may have 2004 in mind with his challenge, when Toomey faces self-imposed term-limits. PA Politics indicates that Toomey might have challenging Spector in mind for 2004. Spector would certainly be wide-open from the right. If Toomey does move on from the 15th, O'Brien would be the favorite. In fact, if Spector were to retire --not unlikely given the prospects for the Republicans taking back the Senate-- Hart would also likely enter the race for the Senate seat, opening up the Dem-leaning 4th to Democratic takeover. And further, the 8th CD representative, Republican Greenwood, faces self-imposed term-limits in 2004, opening up another seat. The gist of it all? It's entirely possible that the congressional makeup of PA is at near-parity (10-9) following the 2004 election, with either Party in the majority.
Replies: 9 comments
A simialr situation is brewing in Michigan. The GOP gerrymandered its House districts in order to elect 6 Democrats and 9 Republicans. However, the top of the ticket for the GOP is in abysmal shape right now. Granholm could well beat Posthumus with more than 60% of the vote, and 60% or more of the vote seems to be near-certain for Sen. Levin against his token opposition.
Two seats are in play this year. The GOP still seems to be well-positioned in the 10th (a GOP reconfiguration of Bonior's old seat) with SOS Miller (though Marlinga can't be counted out). The 11th, however, looks ripe for a Democratic upset. McCotter lost nearly one-third of the GOP primary vote to an unheralded opponent, and Democrat Kevin Kelley outpolled the combined GOP vote 56,000 to 37,000 (Source: http://miboecfr.nicusa.com/election/results/02pri/06011000.html). Like the PA 6th, the MI 11th is centered on aging affluent suburbs which have trended toward the Democrats on social issues over the last 10 years, and it will only get more Democratic over time. It voted for Bush over Gore by only a 50% to 47% margin. With a Democratic romp at the top of the ticket, I think Kelley has at least even odds of winning the seat for the Democrats. With the 10th and 11th in play, I expect Michigan to elect at least 7 Democrats to Michigan's 15 House seats.
Posted by MrB @ 08/11/2002 10:22 PM PST
Thanks MrB, Ihope to write-up on MI soon.
Posted by myDD @ 08/12/2002 10:24 AM PST
If Toomey challenges Specter in 2004, the GOP's chances of holding the seat are slim. It would be a foolish move on his part, because it would create a huge center-right chasm within the party, one that would be difficult, if not impossible, to heal. It would put in jeopardy a few House seats (Toomey's own, Greenwood's, Murphy, maybe even Sherwood), hurt Hafer and Fisher's re-election bids, and probably doom any chance W had of winning PA. It also effects the state's other "Senator"; Sanitorium's views are much closer to Toomey's than they are to Specter's, and he would be in a very tough position on who to support-if he comes out on the losing side, he is pretty much damaged goods in '06. And when that happens, I will enjoy seeing that self-righteous crybaby who defames my religion (he wrote an op-ed in a Catholic newspaper blaiming the wave of priest sex scandals on the liberals-how conceited can you be?!?!?!?) lose almost as much as I will enjoy seeing seeing George Allen, California pretty-boy who thinks he's a redneck, lose to Mark Warner.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/12/2002 12:53 PM PST
"...lose almost as much as I will enjoy seeing seeing George Allen, California pretty-boy who thinks he's a redneck, lose to Mark Warner."
You mean Virginia pretty boy George Allen who thinks he is a redneck...for all I know he well might be. But, in this regard, I doubt whether Allen would be able to compete with the authentic rednecks of Virginia Jim Gilmore and Mary Sue Terry (who lost to Allen)...perhaps for that matter the crooked ex-governor, Douglas Wilder (who is black).
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/12/2002 01:13 PM PST
Raj-sorry, I should've been a little clearer about Allen. He was born and raised in California, then moved here when his dad became coach of the Redskins, and pretends he's never set foot outside the state except for the mile across the Potomac. Jim Gilmore left Mark Warner nowhere to go but up, and he will be in great position to oust Allen. And trust me-Wilder was no redneck.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/12/2002 01:52 PM PST
MyDD:
Here is an interesting article about the post-mortem...the Dingell-Rivers race.
http://www.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/08/12/column.shields/index.html
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 08/12/2002 01:57 PM PST
You lucky lucky people.
Florida is now going to be the ONLY swing state that is going to have an INSANE REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR, who SCREWS UP THE COLLEGE BOARD OF REGENTS THAT WORKED QUITE WELL FOR AGES, AND CREATE A "K-20" STATEWIDE AUTHORITY WITH FEW ACTUAL EDUCATORS, ONLY HIS CRONIES, AS WELL AS A SINGLE BLACK PERSON TO PACIFY THE MINORITIES.
Our state government in florida has sucked for ages. Even during democrat control, which spanned from Reconstruction 'til 1997, these fat loads in Tallahassee did absolutely nothing.
That is why Florida is last in everything.
The evil legislature now is wasting money on FCAT testing resources. The FCAT, a standardized test, measures nothing.
GRRRRR!
Posted by Fred @ 08/12/2002 07:12 PM PST
Fred-
The Dems have held GA since reconstruction, and it would be quite a stretch for that to change this year. Regardless of party, the fact that keeps gov deadlocked is too much power with the incumbant. Lack of real challangers keeps disfunctional gov alfloat.
Posted by JimGaGOP @ 08/12/2002 09:29 PM PST
Louisiana takes the cake for last in everything.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/13/2002 07:18 AM PST
