08/12/2002 Archived Entry: "Rocky Mt's no longer unwelcome territory for Democrats"
While far from being equals in office-holding depth, the Democrats have fielded competitive candidates in Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho this year. For Governor, both the contests in Idaho and Wyoming will not be the statewide blowouts that occurred during the Bush vs Gore contest. In Idaho, though the incumbent Kempthorne(R) is certainly favored over Brady(D), the latter has the funds and credentials to compete. In Wyoming, the Gubernatorial seat is open, and Freudenthal(D) looks strong. Similar to northeastern states that have predominantly Democratic legislatures, while electing Republican Governors, both Idaho and Wyoming have a recent history of electing Democratic Governors. On their websites, Brady makes the case for why he will be Idaho's next Governor; and On The Trail provides a behind-the-scenes look at Dave's travels across Wyoming.
In Idaho, Brady will benefit from the uphill campaign of ex-Ambassador Blinken for Senator against Craig, and ex-U.S. Attorney Betty Richardson against Otter. Both GOP incumbents are expected to win, but not by the margins they did in 2000. In Wyoming, Cubin has made a whole host of enemy's with her DC voting record. Campaign & Election's Odds are only 3:1 Republican. I look for the Libertarian candidate to acheive double-digits, with a strong Anyone But Cubin vote to occur.
In Utah, Matheson is nearly-favored to win re-election in the 2nd CD, having a 13% advantage in the poll that came out after the primaries. Recent write-ups from the state: Utah Republicans aren't as confident in their redistricting plan as they were a year ago; Matheson Gets Support of Leavitt brothers to GOP Governor; and Demo Congressional Hopefuls to Make Yucca Site an Issue, point toward competitive races in all three of the state's CD elections. In the 3rd CD, Cannon is likely to win over Woodside, but not by the 20% margin he did in 2000. In the 2nd CD, the race leans to Matheson, though not by the 14% margin that he won with in 2000. In the 1st CD, which is open, the Democrats cheered the outcome of primary races:
Democrats got the Republican opponent they wanted in Box Elder County schoolteacher and lobbyist-for-hire Rob Bishop. Republicans got the Democratic opponent they least wanted in advertising executive Dave Thomas. And the result could be a very close race for Utah's 1st District House seat, being vacated by the retiring Rep. Jim Hansen, R-Utah, who has kept the seat Republican for the past 22 years. "I have no idea how or why I won," said Republican Bishop, who was stunned by his double-digit victory.
Hope for Democrats in Utah? was a good write-up about Utah from Roll Call after the primaries. While the GOP poll showed Bishop up 23% over Thomas, besides being partisan, it was done prior to the primary. Bishop, who has chaired the state Republican Party the last four years, clearly has strength in the GOP, which benefited him in a record low turnout for the primary. However, unlike Garn, Thomas is not anti-credit union, and Bishop will not be able to count on them to spend $250k to defeat his opponent in the General election. Thomas is a moderate LDS Bishop, and could strong appeal to in a state where Independents make up 75% of the voters.
Likewise, in Wyoming and Idaho a majority of the voters are not registered with either party, and this presents an opening for Democrats that are aligned with positions that resonate with the voters in these western mountain states. This is not to say that the GOP will lose their dominance in this trio of Rocky mountain states in the near furture to the Democrats. They will still maintain the majority, but not without increased competition.
Replies: 12 comments
Mey Mydd, this is Mr. Liberal here. I just got back from a lengthly vacation in Maine and Massachusetts (and I was in Kennebunkport, at the same time as the President's fundraiser!)I'm pleased that Granholm, Bredesen and Shallenburger won, as well as Dingell (I respect him as a leader of a dying breed: The Old School Democrat, the type who brought us such great liberals in the 20th century). Unfortunatly, both Marcum and Ray lost, so Emily's List is being pounded this year.
I'm very suprised to see the Democrats doing well in the Rocky Mountains. Brady, Blinken and "Betty" (Richardson) will probably keep it close in Idaho, and I would say that one of them could pull off an upset. In Wyoming, Freudenthal looks good, but I expect Elie Bebout to win. In Utah, I think that Thomas can win, while Matheson might lose as well. I would add UT-1 to your list, along with ID-1.
I'm hoping the same occurs with GA-4, with Republicans helping Majette win.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/12/2002 09:14 PM PST
The Democrats will gain at least one upset win in the West this year. Wyoming might be something of a stretch, but in Idaho I feel pretty sure either Brady or Richardson will pull off the upset (if only Richardson were running against that racist psychoslut Helen Chenoweth, she'd win easily). As for Utah, I'm sure it will have a Democratic congressman next year. I'd be shocked if Matheson and Thomas both win-one or the other is more likely, probably Matheson. Colorado could go into next year with a Democratic senator and more Democrats than Republicans. And in Montana, Baucus will be re-elected with at least 55%. GOPers can point to Bush winning the state by 26 (after Clinton carried it in '92 and barely lost in '96) all they want-it was a coattail win; had it not been for Bush, Montana would go into this election with 2 Democratic senators, a Democratic governor and a Democrat in the House. Last but not least, remember the two southernmost Western states: Arizona and New Mexico will probably elect Democratic governors and give Democrats crucial House victories.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/13/2002 06:39 AM PST
News item on George Gekas's flip flop on social security:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10484-2002Aug12.html
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/13/2002 07:27 AM PST
Despite the fall in the stock market, there has been no major public opinion movement on social security privitization (the only real movement is that a small fraction of people who disagreed before now strongly disagreed with the idea). It's a shame that Republicans are scrambling to abandon what might have been one of the most promising changes in Social Security since its inception.
Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 08/13/2002 09:16 AM PST
I saw a relatively recent poll on Idaho's governor's race. It had Kempthorne at 45 and Brady at 30. Kempthorne had been enormously popular for a decade and to see him under 50 is amazing. I think he will lose come November and provide the biggest upset of election night 2002.
Posted by Ced @ 08/13/2002 09:45 AM PST
Ced:
Is that a party poll or an independent poll or a Survey USA kind of poll?
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/13/2002 10:51 AM PST
Mr. Moderate:
The GOP is running scared on this issue:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10484-2002Aug12.html
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 08/13/2002 10:53 AM PST
The key phrase from Utah and elsewhere for Republicans is "record low turnout".
In 1994 Democrats usually were tied or only a few points behind in generic polls for Congress. When polls of likely voters began to be taken you saw a much larger GOP lead.
This is what is happening in 2002.
Posted by TOM @ 08/13/2002 11:16 AM PST
Yes. But, turnout would be larger in 2002 than in 1994...especially among the seniors.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/13/2002 02:59 PM PST
And I almost forgot; when Switchhorse Campbell retires in a couple of years, his seat will be wide open-same with McCain.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/13/2002 08:14 PM PST
It was a poll from Lake, Snell, Perry done around 6/18.
Posted by Ced @ 08/14/2002 06:19 AM PST
If Swithhorse or Dayhorse Campbell retires, Tom Tancredo is going to get the nomination and I would be out in front throwing mud and feces on him in the true American tradition.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/14/2002 10:12 AM PST
