08/13/2002 Archived Entry: "Florida 13th CD Challengers to Harris"

Harris is a likely shoo-in for the open contest in this CD, so the conventional wisdom goes... However, I'm not convinced. As I wrote in Second-Tier Takeovers: SD, FL-13th, this is one of those races where the percieved incumbent might not do well in a politically-charged atmosphere.

Harris is not going to be helped all that much by her having oodles of cash to throw at the race. Her name ID is already so high, she can really only hope to bring negatives up for her challenger. The Democratic race is a tight contest. I'm no longer sure whom has the advantage. Harris' foes insist they have a shot provides bio's on all four of the Democratic contenders, and a few facts about the district:

Any Republican has a built-in advantage running in District 13. Mapped by a friendly Republican Florida Legislature, the district encompasses 640,000 people, most of them in Manatee, Sarasota and western Charlotte counties, with the rest in DeSoto and Hardee. Republicans outnumber Democrats 49 percent to 33 percent. One reason for the optimism: In the 2000 presidential election, the Democratic ticket pulled 44 percent of the district vote, with the Green Party's Ralph Nader getting another 2.4 percent... in a district where more than half the registered voters are 55 and older.

Given the latter fact, Schneider may have an edge in the primary. Brown-McElyea is the candidate whom I believe the Harris campaign team fears the most. Feheley, in losing the Labor endorsement to Brown-McElyea, doesn't seem well-positioned. Neither he nor McKenzie have been able to mount much fund-raising.

Replies: 1 Comment

Does she have no shame?

Posted by AVADem @ 08/14/2002 12:15 PM PST