08/14/2002 Archived Entry: "CO Primary Results; Next Contest, Georgia"
8 pundits entered the contest in predicting the election numbers for the Colorado CD primaries, here are the results, with the winners following:
7th Congressional District
Republican Primary:
Bob Beauprez (R) 40%
Rick O'Donnell (R) 29%
Sam H. Zakhem (R) 19%
Joe Rogers (R) 12%
1. CA Pol Junkie (Beauprez 41% O'Donnell 28%)
2. myDD
3. AVADem
Democratic Primary:
Mike Feeley (D) 57%
"Dave" Thomas (D) 43%
1. Brown (Feeley 58% Thomas 41%)
2. CA Pol Junkie
3. MississippiDem
4th Congressional District
Republican Primary:
Marilyn Musgrave (R) 65%
"Jeff" Bedingfield (R) 35%
1. AVADem (Musgrave 65% Bedingfield 35%)
2. myDD (Musgrave 65% Bedingfield 32%)
3. CA Pol Junkie
1st Congressional District
Democratic Primary:
Diana DeGette (D) 73%
Ramona Martinez (D) 27%
1. CA Pol Junkie (DeGette 73% Martinez 27%)
2. Adam
3. MississippiDem, AVADem
Overall Record:
CA Pol Junkie: 4-0
MississippiDem: 4-0
Brown: 4-0
AVADem: 4-0
myDD: 4-0
Adam: 3-1
MI-De: 3-1
TOM: 1-0
In the 7th District Showdown, Zakhem did a lot better than anyone expected, garnering 19 percent. He and O'Donnell were the religious right-wing candidates, so I was expecting this internal competition to cost O'Donnell the victory. Feeley was the top vote-getter out of all candidates in the 7th, though more Republicans than Democrats cast votes. I expect Feeley, who holds a lean in this toss-up, to continue where O'Donnell left off, attacking Beauprez as a corporate-interest candidate. With Beauprez winning, Rogers has seen his political chances go down the drain. One of many things he did wrong, was assuming the GOP meant it when they were showcasing him:
After campaigning non-stop for three days, the lieutenant governor left his headquarters Tuesday when it became apparent he was losing, went home and went to bed. "He's out of commission. I think he's done for the evening," Rogers staff member Kathy Huey said. Although there were a few other contests, the GOP race in the newly created suburban Denver district was the most closely watched. The district is split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, with 34 percent unaffiliated registered voters. One of the country's highest ranking black Republicans, Rogers was seen as a symbol of Republicans' new strategy of inclusion and was a key speaker at the 2000 Republican National Convention to nominate George W. Bush. But Rogers angered too many powerful people, including Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Colin Powell, when he said he had their backing, pollster Floyd Ciruli said.
In the 4th, once again, the conservative beats the moderate, in a Republican primary. Due to the district make-up, Musgrave enters into the general with a slight lean in this toss-up race. The Bedingfield voters will be deciding if they want to vote for their ideological or partisan interests, with the Matsunaka vs Musgrave contest:
The primary battle centered on Musgrave's ultra-right stands and Bedingfield's pledge he was the centrist candidate who could carry the district in November.... Many, including Bedingfield, believe that Matsunaka's chances were boosted by Musgrave's win. "By the end of the race, some of the unspoken issues on the social agenda were being spoken, and people needed to hear that," Bedingfield said. "There is room for differences on the issues without someone not being a good Republican."
Matsunaka has right now twice as much funds as Musgrave, but holds less than $200K, even though he was uncontested in the primary. He should be able to draw money from outside sources, given the radical-right nature of his opponents agenda. The strength of the 3rd party candidates in both the 4th and the 7th district races will need to be assessed. In any toss-ups, including the US Senate seat, the Green or Libertarian in Colorado could determine the winner. DeGette trounced Denver City Councilwoman Ramona Martinez, and will easily win in the General contest.
Congrats to the winners, especially CA Pol Junkie-- this pundit was on the top of the hill this week with the forecasts. Next contest will be for the Georgia primaries, next Tuesday. Georgia has a run-off system in place if a candidate does not reach 50 percent, so we will incorporate that into the contest.
Replies: 13 comments
Score 1 for seat-of-the-pants punditry!
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 08/14/2002 09:19 AM PST
Latest Rocky Mountain News/KCNC-TV Colorado poll for the US Senate shows Allard with only 42% to 34% for Democrat Tom Strickland. The Greens didn't field a candidate for this seat, which will help Strickland. The Libertarians are running an outspoken gun rights supporter who will draw about 2% from Allard, although his tactics are making the Libs look silly. He actually called for Allard's arrest for treason.
In the congressional races, the Dems are favored locally to win the new 7th. However, the Greens fielded a strong candidate in Dave Chandler, Sierra Club leader and neighborhood activist, who's running an active campaign. He could draw 4% to 7%, damaging Feeley. The GOP's Beauprez will have cash but he's a corporate insider (banker and developer), not exactly the best candidate for a 2002 election, especially in a blue collar district like the 7th CD. In addition, he won the primary with less than 40% of the vote.
In the 4th, Matsunaka could win because Musgrave is such a wacko but it will be a stretch. Matsunaka's also trying to position himself as a centrist, alienating some liberals. However, no Green filed in 4th CD so he has a chance.
Otherwise, likely no changes in other congressional seats. DiGette's primary victory in the 1st CD was stronger than expected against a well-know Hispanic Denver councilmember and the GOP candidate actually lives outside the district in Leadville. Once again, a strong Green candidate in Ken Seaman who'se running on a peace platform. He could pull 2% to 5% but not enough to jeopardize DiGette against the iconoclastic GOP candidate Ken Chlouber, a former miner, NRA-backer (not a popular stand in Denver) and party maverick.
Posted by Colorado pundit @ 08/14/2002 12:01 PM PST
If Allard polls under 45% come end of September, he is toast.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/14/2002 02:21 PM PST
I agree. If Allard can't pull into a sizeable lead by Sept, he is gone. With a strong head of the ticket in Gov. Owens, he should be doing much better than this.
Posted by Ced @ 08/14/2002 04:58 PM PST
Republicans statewide always manage to win in Colarado.Allard in 1996 and Owens in 1998 by a ultra fine razor thin win.Allard was down 7% in September in 1996 but won by 5%.For whats its worth,I dont think he will even win by 5% this time,but as long as he is ahead by at least 3%-4%(regardless if he is under 45%)then I wont believe in a Democratic victory till I see it with my own eyes Tuesday,NOV.
On the House seat,I sure hope we dont loose this one.No Libertarian but a Green? This is a must win seat,54% Democratic performance.
Posted by MLM @ 08/14/2002 11:09 PM PST
Allard won in 1996 because Clinton did not care to campaign there and lost the state. A lot of issues would determine Allard's chances: the stock market, especially his ties to Qwest, prescription drugs and finally if there is an anti-incumbent wave. Personally I think that Strickland has a better chance of winning in Colorado than Kirk in Texas.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/15/2002 06:46 AM PST
KMGH-TV in Denver is reporting tonight that some Libertarians want to eject US Senate candidate Rick Stanley from their party. According to news reports, Stanley supposedly made comments in an email suggesting that Americans take action against "traitors" through street trials and summary executions.
Libertarians generally reject violence and some members of the Colorado party think Stanley's comments violate the party's principles. They are seeking a vote by the state party executive committee to kick Stanley out of the party and replace him on the November ballot with another candidate.
Stanley is an outspoken gun rights advocate. He recently was found guilty in a Denver County court of carrying a concealed weapon in violation of a city ordinance. He's also made some extreme comments about Senator Wayne Allard (R-Enron) being a traitor.
The race becomes more and more curious. If he remains in the race Stanley's good for about 2% of the vote, coming mainly from Allard. The Democrats must be praying for him to remain on the ballot.
Posted by Colorado Pundit @ 08/15/2002 09:12 PM PST
Traditionally strange characters come from the south. Although this trend is not disturbed, increasingly we have been getting crazies from Colorado more recently, such as former Governor Richard Lamm and Rep. Tom Tancredo. You can add the libertarian to the list. By the way, Allard is R-Qwest and not R-Enron. The R-Enron designation goes to "Enron" John "the Crooked" Cornyn.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/16/2002 09:48 AM PST
Colorado has suffered during the 1990s from an influx of Texans and southern Californians, many of whom brought their politics and worldview with them. Most settled in Colorado Springs, the Vatican of the religious right. They helped tip Colorado more to the conservative side.
The Democratic leadership is weak in the state, although the Dems did gain control of the state senate in 2000 and could win 4 of the 7 congressional seats and the Allard US senate seat this year.
The state's politics are starting to tip again, though. This is due to an influx of Hispanics and the arrival of more moderate voters from the east and midwest. Environmental issues are also important in a dramatic state like Colorado, and that's an issue on which the GOP is badly vulnerable. Unfortunately, the wussie Dems have dropped that ball.
Nader got 5.2% in Colorado in 2000, almost double his national average. The Greens have about a dozen city and county elected officials and have increased voter registration from 500 to 5,000 since 1996.
So, while my adopted state has its fair share of wackos and fruitcakes I must defer to places like Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina and West Virginia for supremacy in that category.
Posted by Colorado Pundit @ 08/16/2002 03:45 PM PST
Colorado Pundit:
You definitely know much better. However, correct me if I am wrong. While Colorado Springs has its share of Californians and Texans running away from Hispanics, Colorado Sixth district is settled mostly by folks who ran away from Asians..from Arcadia, Daly City, Richmond and Fremont. I had a chance to visit Evergreen and Litlleton in March 1999 (I was near the Columbine High School about a month before the incident). To me, it seemed like they did not like Asians too much. The frequent complaint was that they could not get into good colleges in California because they are overrun with high achieving Asians. The most extreme say that their "good Christian boys" are in "high demand" by "Heathen Asian girls." This syndrome, I call the Janice Heron syndrome. Janice Heron was the leader of the "anti-Asian immigrant" wackos in California during the early 1990s and moved to Colorado "because the beaches got overrun with Asians." She is very active in the Tom Tancredo campaign, and his anti-Asian bigotry. So, yes, while Colorado Springs has its rednecks, Colorado Sixth is by far the worst. No wonder, Tancredo represents them.
I do agree with you that Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and others take the cake, but Louisiana is clearly the leader in this category with its corrupt judges and politicians, crime ridden police force and racist prosecutors.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/17/2002 11:47 AM PST
G. C. Raj makes a good observation about the conservatism of the Colorado 6th CD (southern Denver suburbs) and its wild and wacky congressman, Tom Tancredo (R-Mars). However, there aren't many people of Asian descent in Colorado so I haven't noticed a lot of anti-Asian sentiment among Republicans. Tancredo and his buddies generally vent against Hispanics, Muslems, environmentalists and gays.
Tancredo was elected in 1998 to an open seat. He won the primary with less than 35% of the vote against more moderate opponents (relatively speaking) and has been unchallenged in the primary since. The 6th CD is heavily Republican so a congressman more conservative than his district remains in office since the Dems and Greens don't bother to offer alternatives. This year, though, a popular councilman from suburban Parker, Lance Wright, is running for the Dems. He won't win but will make Tancredo work more than normal.
Tancredo pledged not to serve more than three terms, a promise upon which he is now waffling. Should he run again in 2004 he may be challenged by a Republican, mainly on that issue. However, most of the old breed of live-and-let-live western Republicans have died off or left the GOP, so I don't know if there's any Republican in the 6th CD who'd be better than Tancredo.
Tancredo may also run for the US Senate in 2004 should Ben Nighthorse Campbell retire. Considering Tancredo's nasty comments about Hispanics I'm sure the Dems would love to have him representing the GOP in a statewide election. He'd be a great motivator for Hispanic registrations and turnout.
Unfortunately for Tancredo, Governor Bill Owens and Congressman Scott McInnis (western slope) would be more likely candidates for an open senate seat in 2004 so Tancredo either enters a hot senate primary or violates his pledge and runs for reelection to the house.
Posted by Colorado Pundit @ 08/17/2002 05:38 PM PST
Colorado Pundit-if Switchhorse retires in '04 (and I've felt for a while that he will) who would the Dems go with? Mayor Webb? Congressman Udall?
Posted by AVADem @ 08/18/2002 06:19 PM PST
In response to AVADem's question, I expect a number of top Dems to run if Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-whoever pays the most) retires in 2004, including:
1. Denver Mayor Wellington Webb toyed with running for the senate this year but dropped out in favor of Tom Strickland. Webb is term-limited and won't be able to seek reelection in 2003. He's well known in metro Denver which makes up about 60% of Colorado's population.
2. Rep. Udall also considered a 2002 race. He has a safe Democratic seat (Boulder and some liberal central mountain counties) and may decide to stay in the House if the Dems win a majority in 2002. Otherwise, he'd be a favorite of liberal Dems.
3. Former Governor Roy Romer, now superintendant of schools in Los Angeles but still a resident of Colorado. Romer was very popular and would probably represent the DLC wing of the party.
4. Attorney General Ken Salazar, likely to win reelection in 2002 (the only statewide Dem elected official) against a weak Republican and a strong Green. Salazar is more likely to run for governor in 2006. Salazar's a favorite of the growing Hispanic segment in the party and state but his environmental record is weak.
The GOP will also have a lively race if Campbell retires, with potential candidates Governor Owens, congressmembers Tancredo, McInnis and Schafer and maybe Gale Norton, Bush's Interior secretary.
The Greens could run San Miguel County (Telluride) commissioner Art Goodtimes (his real name), a popular ex-Democrat rancher who switched to the Greens and won reelection easily in 2000. On the other hand, Goodtimes seems more interested in western slope Colorado issues so a congressional race could be in his future, especially if McInnis runs for the Senate in 2004, leaving that seat open.
Posted by Colorado Pundit @ 08/18/2002 08:50 PM PST
