08/16/2002 Archived Entry: "WY Primary is also next week"
WyomingNews.com has good coverage of the election, including the Governor primary:
CHEYENNE – The Republican gubernatorial primary is too close to call at this point, but Dave Freudenthal is the clear frontrunner among Democratic candidates, according to a survey recently commissioned by the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle.... Of the 141 Republicans surveyed, 54 percent said they still were undecided. Some 22 percent said they planned to vote for Bebout; 20 percent said they intend to vote for Hunkins... Among the Democrats, Freudenthal emerged as the frontrunner with an 18 percent lead over Paul Hickey, 33 percent to 15 percent....
That's a large amount of undecided voters for a week before the primary. The WTE endorsed Freudenthal and also endorsed Hunkins.
Asked whom they would vote for if Eli Bebout – considered by some the Republican leader – and Dave Freudenthal – frontrunner among the Democrats -- face off in November, 42 percent of respondents said they did not know. Another 31 percent said they would vote Bebout, while 27 percent said they would support Freudenthal.... a Hunkins versus Freudenthal election was still too close to yield clear-cut statistics. Forty-one percent of respondents said they did not know whom they support. Another 31 percent said they would vote for Hunkins, while 28 percent said they would favor Freudenthal.
Bebout is probably going to win the primary, based on his being the establishment candidate, and there being low turnout. I expect the WTE to endorse Freudenthal over Bebout for the Nov General election, which will be very close.
Replies: 12 comments
One more governorship in play.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/16/2002 11:53 AM PST
Mydd, what do you believe is the reason an incredibly conservative state like WY would have a competitive governor's race?
Posted by RSB @ 08/16/2002 12:31 PM PST
RSB,
A couple of days ago I made a post about why in the Rocky Mt states there are competitive Dems this year. It was the kind of post where I was thinking, "I know this sounds silly but..." so I'm glad to see a poll come out that backs up what I've stated. The state has many independents, and if the Dems nominate a candidate of the people, the Wyoming people, they can win.
Years and years of control makes the dominant party complacently ideologic, and the alternate party willing to compromise.
The Dems have a great candidate, and I think he's probably going to follow Sullivan in becoming a Democratic Governor in a very Republican-leaning state. From Freudenthal's website, Dave is committed to:
Open, responsive government
Helping Wyoming communities and businesses first
Collecting unpaid oil and gas taxes to keep your taxes down
Providing better citizen access to public lands
Keeping Wyoming a safe place
Protecting our environment
Putting tax dollars back into the classroom
Giving seniors a stronger voice
Supporting early childhood programs
Freedom of choice
No State income tax
No gun control
Posted by myDD @ 08/16/2002 02:08 PM PST
While the Bush Administration holds many without charges, I do not know why they want a speedy trial for perhaps the worst offender. Cynical politics to divert attention from the economic problems, perhaps?
http://www.msnbc.com/news/795098.asp
Posted by Jury @ 08/16/2002 02:08 PM PST
I just told my mother about this possibility, and she cracked up:
"HA! I'll believe that one when I see it!"
I feel the same way-it's like the Republicans winning in DC-"Can it Be? Is it possible?". However, I still doubt we could win. The undecided voters are probably voters who generally vote Republican. However, I can say that I think this year is the best in a generation for Democratic gains in the Rockies.
One problem with the poll, however. According to the article, and the Hickey campaign, the poll had very few voters, I think-less than 300, maybe. Plus, the Democratic primary had a MOE of 7.5. With that, and the fact that almost half of voters are undecided, the primary races could go either way. For now, I'm predicting Freudenthal over Hickey, and Bebout over Hunkins.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/16/2002 02:36 PM PST
It is a large MOE for the poll. When the results come back from the primary, we'll get a good look at if the poll has any accuracy or not to protend into the General election.
Posted by myDD @ 08/16/2002 03:40 PM PST
If the GOP has problems in Wyoming, the CQ folks are off by a big margin.
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 08/16/2002 03:41 PM PST
It sure seems like the GOP is going to take hits at some level everywhere along and west of the Mississippi in November. The Ohio Valley seems safe for them, but not a whole lot of other regions.
Posted by C.D. @ 08/17/2002 12:15 AM PST
Interesting polls by the conservative investor's groups on Bush's approval and handling of the economy. Not good news!
http://www.pollingreport.com/
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/17/2002 01:45 PM PST
It is so wonderful to seem Democrats actually have achance at winning the Wyoming governorship this year.
That Investor's/Christian Science poll is extremely bad news for Dubya. He is about to drop back into the 50% approval range, right back where he was before Sept. 11. It seems that heading into the fall that the terrain is going to be extremely Democrat issues friendly. And although we have over 2 months to go, I think this is going to turn into an enormous Democratic year. I think there will major governor and senate gains by the Democrats and that the house is a 50/50 prospect.
Posted by Ced @ 08/17/2002 01:52 PM PST
As a Wyoming resident, I'm seeing a big shift in attitude this year. The Casper Star-Tribune, which is known for its large section of letters to the editor, has carried quite a few letters from Repubs saying they will be voting in the Dem primary. Many others have pointed out that the state has suffered under an extended one-party rule. The newspaper even carried an article from League of Women Voters telling people how they could switch registration and then switch back.
Eli Bebout took a couple more hits over the weekend. First, he was endorsed by the NRA. That might seem like a good thing except that all the Repub candidates are strong supporters of the 2nd Amendment & all of the key challengers to Bebout are NRA members as well. So why did the NRA meddle in the primary? People suspect it may be because our congresswoman, Rep. Barbara Cubin, pulled some strings. Cubin, who sits on the NRA board, denies this but a lot of NRA members who are supporting someone besides Bebout are angry & feel as though the NRA should have stayed out of it.
To add to the controversy, the NRA has been making tape recorded phone calls to members urging them to vote for Bebout. This is illegal under Wyoming's campaign laws. And the other candidates are, of course, crying foul. There won't be time to sort out the legalities but the mere fact that these calls have been made will likely backfire on Bebout.
And, as long as there are questions about Cubin's possible role in the endorsement, it will be one more thing weighing against her re-election bid. She is also being hurt because she has not been back in WY over the break. Her husband just had surgery in DC so she's stayed there. That might seem to be cause for sympathy towards her but he's been very ill for a couple years now & she has a terrible attendance/voting record as a result. This current absence is simply reminding people again that she has been unable to fulfill her responsibilities as our sole representative. Many people are angry at her for a variety of reasons but a lot of people who would normally support her without a second thought are expressing regret that she didn't just retire. I think that House seat is potentially vulnerable.
As for governor, I expect Freudenthal to win the primary & then to win the general election. The high number of undecideds convinces me that the one-party-state arguments are resonating with people. Most of those undecideds are certainly Repubs who, right now, can't quite bring themselves to admit that they will vote for a Dem. But we have a long history of Dem governors in Wyoming who have done an excellent job & Freudenthal has good connections to Ed Herschler, one of our most respected.
Tonight, on the eve of the primary, I think Hunkins may have the edge in the Repub primary. But however that turns out, the Repubs have beat themselves up pretty well, opening the door to a positive, fresh voice like that of Dave Freudenthal.
Posted by kainah @ 08/19/2002 04:27 PM PST
Thanks for the inside scoop in Wyoming Kainah. I have to agree with you on Freudenthal, even though it's not recognized nationally at all yet, he looks like a winner.
Posted by myDD @ 08/19/2002 08:41 PM PST
