08/16/2002 Archived Entry: "The DC Establishment Outlook is still Republican"
As of July 29th, Congressional Quarterly maintains that the Republicans will pick up 1-7 seats in the House this election year. The current House makeup is 223 Republicans, 211 Democrats, and 1 Independent(D voting). From the races CQ calls, a 224-205 advantage for the Republicans emerges, with 6 contests deemed to have No Clear Favorite.
The CQ Ratings are at this link, • US House: All Races (which is a PDF Adobe Acrobat Document). CQ seems to have a terminal case of dislike for calling races as Leans or Likely Democrat, instead of No Clear Favorite in the contest; though curiously, the ailment does not seem to appear with races they call for Republicans. It almost appears as if the No Clear Favorite header has edited out one or the other column headers for the Democrats amidst the Republican-held Seats and the Redistricting:Open Seats, Incumbent Matchups. To propose that the Republicans pick-up 1 seat is not out of the question, but to suggest it's the minimum expectation --and they may just as easily gain as many as 7 seats-- shows incredible bias, given the current US House scenario.
There are of course many other complaints that could be said of the WA Post|CQ Ratings. Without getting into specific contests, a clear example of GOP bias exudes itself amidst the 4 Incumbent Matchups; none of which are deemed No Clear Favorite, all of which are said to be Leans Republican. More generally, some of the Democrat Favored seats where an upset cannot be completely ruled out appear as nothing other than RNC talking points. Further, the CQ House Ranking appear as a means to placate Republican operatives into believing that the number of Democratic-held seats they rank as vulnerable (27) approaches the number of Republican-held seats that are vulnerable to takeover (33). This results in a bloated number (75) of competitive seats that CQ holds in their rankings. Nobody really believes 75 House seats are in play this cycle.
The current myDD US House forecast yields a 8 seat gain for the Democrats over the Republicans, resulting in a 219-215-1 Democratic Majority in the House. Admittingly, I have too high a number (65) of races deemed as competitive, and will attempt to winnow this number down with the September rankings.
Replies: 14 comments
I think the CQ needs to have its head examined. Obviously they have not travelled out of the country. If your predictions come true or if the GOP losses mount as a result of the economy, you need to e-mail these predictions back to them. I would not even dignify it by paying attention.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/16/2002 03:18 PM PST
Thanks for the rundown. I'm rather surprised myself that they have not adjusted their figures. I'll certainly be disappointed (and shocked) to see a net loss for Democrats this year. I know redistricting hurt, but not as much as predicted. That taken with the off-year, out-of-office historical precedent should lead to about the results you predict, myDD.
Posted by MississippiDem @ 08/16/2002 05:13 PM PST
MississippiDem:
Add to that the economy is in poor shape. What is the status of the Shows-Pickering race? I am hearing all kinds of stories about that race, especially regarding Pickering's association with WorldCom. I think the Dems would slightly more than what Mydd predicts given the current circumstances. The best thing to do is to follow the independent polls.
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 08/16/2002 05:45 PM PST
While I, too, think CQ is biased in its analysis and believe the Democrats will gain a couple seats, I am humored by your analysis which gives the Democrats a bare majority. Hmmm...
Posted by Sean @ 08/16/2002 08:54 PM PST
The Beltway oddsmakers have had a lot of trouble recently pegging races where there are a lot of minority voters or a Democratic trend. My suspicion is that the judgments in e.g. CQ are made mostly by elderly white men from the Midatlantic states who don't get how other parts of the country work anymore.
Posted by C.D. @ 08/17/2002 12:24 AM PST
Wow, what a crock. Just at a glance,
they have NM2, CT5, and NH1 as leans Republican? (All should be no clear favorite/lean Dem). They appear to have forgotten about the other open seat in Arizona (leans D). They have
ND AL as leans Dem and SD AL as Republican favored in spite of the fact that the Dems are putting up a much better fight in SD. They will be quite surprised come election day.
Posted by JR @ 08/17/2002 03:33 AM PST
Yes, I think the CQ needs to read the text on Texeira's book..in TNR.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/17/2002 07:35 AM PST
CQ also has the Arkansas Senate race as lean GOP.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/17/2002 07:36 AM PST
My gut tells me Shows has a chance. My friends who are active in Democratic politics are less optimistic. Pickering is unimpressive as a candidate and has backtracked on social security privatization. Shows is extremely good on constituent services and is in the good graces of the NRA and pro-lifers. He's doing his damnedest to capitalize on World-CON and NAFTA (which has cost the district lots of low paying jobs)-so, if the economy remains stalled, Shows COULD edge him out. Its a longshot (and I'm an optimist!) but it just could happen.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/17/2002 10:18 AM PST
Maybe I should wake-up before I try to post. The above was meant to be addressed to G.C. Raj FROM MississippiDem. Sorry...
Posted by MississippiDem @ 08/17/2002 10:20 AM PST
It is OK. I usually fall asleep too. I think it depends on the stock market and whether Ebbers and company are in the news come october. Of course, the Dems have to draw attention to the GOP trying to privatize social security. In two weeks time I would be in New Mexico and Colorad. By September 9th when I return to the east, I should be able to tell you more about the critical races in those states.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/17/2002 11:17 AM PST
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/bw-elect/2002/aug/17/081705799.html
This article talks about the triangle between Congresswoman Roukema, Scott Garrett and Ann Sumers. It also discusses how Ann's slogan "I'm just like Marge" is appropriate. GO SUMERS!
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/17/2002 03:10 PM PST
A more accurate reflection of the political situation in the country by Morton Kondracke, than the nonsense coming from Amy Walter of the CQ and the Cook Political Report.
http://www.rollcall.com/pages/columns/kondracke/
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/19/2002 06:57 AM PST
I think Shows will beat pickering Shows only needs 30% of the white vote to win. In an off year, and with Shows being conservative on social issues, I think he'll do it.
Mr. Liberal; Summers is my upset special pick for the Northeast.
Posted by TOM @ 08/19/2002 02:09 PM PST
