08/18/2002 Archived Entry: "McBride closing the Gap"
If you've been reading here a while, you'll know that I'm predicting that the other Democratic --Idealism, taste for leadership drive McBride bid for governor-- candidate defeats Reno in the Democratic primary for Gov in Florida. A recent poll continues the trend toward McBride: McBride's giving Reno a run until the end.
"Bill McBride now leads Janet Reno or has pulled even with her in every media market of the state where television ads about Mr. McBride have aired," wrote Garin-Hart-Yang Research, which polled 611 likely Democratic primary voters Aug. 2-5.... In North Florida, where 20 percent of voters live in areas unexposed to McBride ads, the poll found McBride and Reno in a dead heat. In the Orlando area, where McBride ads had run only one week, McBride moved barely ahead of Reno. In the Tampa/Fort Myers markets, where the teachers union invested the most money, McBride was leading Reno by nine points. Then there's South Florida, where McBride had no TV exposure. The poll showed Reno leading by seven-to-one over McBride, easily enough to swamp him on Sept. 10. "The battle will be joined in South Florida," McBride said last week while campaigning in Central Florida and Palm Beach County. "If I can get within 35 to 40 percent in South Florida against my primary opponent, we win."
Reno already has 99% name ID, so there is no place for her to go but down. McBride started with single-digits in name ID at the beginning of the year and down over 50 percent against Reno. McBride still has under 50 percent name ID, yet has now closed the gap to 19 percent, with Reno leading McBride 49 to 30 percent among primary voters.
Replies: 15 comments
How do you close a 19 pt. gap in 3 weeks though? Mind you, Bill Simon pulled off the upset. I think McBride's only advantage is that he's NOT Janet Reno. I don't think that's enough to win the election.
Posted by Kobe @ 08/18/2002 02:33 PM PST
I admire Reno, but I think McBride is a better candidate by far. So, it pleases me to see the gap closing. McBride's website (http://www.mcbride2002.com)has an article that says they are about to run their ads in Southeastern Florida. 35-40% might not be out of the question, if the ads work.
Anyway, I just found this terrible article on Iraq and Reagan. You moron, Ronnie!
http://cbsnews.cbs.com/stories/2002/08/18/national/main519036.shtml
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/18/2002 03:59 PM PST
McBride winning or Reno proving she can beat Jeb are the last individually important pieces of the 2002 campaign for Democrats. I believe McBride's ad campaign is heavily end-loaded for the week before the primary; Reno will be low on gas by then. I suppose McBride will hold most or all of the initiative.
The House races are lagging the Democratic trend in the governor and Senate races, but I suspect we'll see that lag diminish by the first week in October. Actually, I'm surprised that the Republican 'recovery' in their House race polling during this off month has been so weak relative to other years. They're not locking up a whole lot of races, while Blount's A/B listing suggests the RNC thinks a number of incumbent Democrats have (Thurman, Boswell, Moore iirc).
Posted by C.D. @ 08/18/2002 05:33 PM PST
Well since the poll was done on the 2nd to 5th, it's actually closer to 5 weeks from the date of the polling. I don't buy into the whole notion that Reno has some sort of strong grassroots support which overwhelms McBride. In fact, everything points to the opposite conclusion.
During the Florida Dem convention this year, Reno had to push for cancelling the straw vote because she was so outnumbered in supporters by McBride; plus, she has no money for TV, her supporters obviously are not that strong for her! Reno's support in the polls is probably due more to inertia and registered Demcratic voters unlikely to vote in the primary, not likely primary voters who are active and aware of the contest. She's basically trying to run out the clock before McBride's name ID becomes much higher, and he overtakes her.
Posted by myDD @ 08/18/2002 07:06 PM PST
Being a new Florida resident, I am eager to see Jeb Bush be defeated. He is clearly vulnerable. I will likely support Reno, but I know that McBride would be the more competitive opponent because of his lack of political baggage. Maybe they will team up with McBride being Reno's running mate.
Posted by Ced @ 08/19/2002 06:04 AM PST
A new poll from South Dakota
Johnson 48
Thune 45
Poll done for the Johnson campaign.
Posted by Ced @ 08/19/2002 06:12 AM PST
Finally, an island of sensible political analysis (Kondracke) in an ocean of bias (CQ)
http://www.rollcall.com/pages/columns/kondracke/
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/19/2002 06:55 AM PST
Ced-How accurate would I be if I said McBride was Schumer to Reno's Ferraro and Jeb's D'Amato, i.e. the well-known, nationally prominent party figure who can't beat the vulnerable incumbent vs. the lesser-known workhorse who can? I've definitely seen the parralels from those two races.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/19/2002 08:25 AM PST
Anyone think that the new fiasco with Jeb's DCF appointment is going to impact this race at all?
http://www.miami.com/mld/miami/3873549.htm
Posted by RParker @ 08/19/2002 12:48 PM PST
Kobe,
In a primary, 19 points is easy to make up in three weeks. In low turnout primaries, momentum is everything.
If McBride is only single digits behind to Reno in the last week, he will win.
Posted by TOM @ 08/19/2002 01:55 PM PST
Ced: It worries me that a Johnson campaign poll shows him up by only 3 points. Do you think in reality the race is tied or that Thune is actually a bit ahead?
Posted by Oregonian @ 08/19/2002 04:33 PM PST
"Ced: It worries me that a Johnson campaign poll shows him up by only 3 points. Do you think in reality the race is tied or that Thune is actually a bit ahead?"
Yes, most reliable polls show exactly that.
Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 08/19/2002 06:06 PM PST
Oregonian,
I am not suprised that he is up only by 3 in his own polling. His campaign polls actually had him trailing back in the Spring (51-46). So for him to have moved ahead is actually encouraging. I think Johnson is the underdog in this race as opposed to being the favorite. I feel most in the political world thought this was a sure takeover for the GOP when Thune announced he was running for it. I know I did. But Johnson has slowly but surely crawled his way back to a very slight lead and I am actually willing to predict that he will win by a percent or two in November.
As for Florida, I read that Jeb considers Reno a serious threat in the general election because she has the same level of name recognition and "star" power. I don't know if he is just trying to egg the Democrats into nominating her because she is a weaker opponent than McBride. I live in a very conservative part of Florida so I don't get to see the first hand dissatisfaction with Jeb that exists across the state. But I feel the recent mess ups with the DCF, the Election 2000 debacle, the recent budget fiasco, and the failing education system make Jeb very vulnerable to a well funded centrist Democrat candidate and that would likely be McBride.
If McBride and maybe even Reno can focus like a laser on education, the slow economy, child welfare, and healthcare they can beat Jeb.
Posted by Ced @ 08/20/2002 07:20 AM PST
Johnson being 3 points ahead in his own poll is not bad news at all. Nor is Johnson being under 50% a problem.
Johnson and Thune are essentially two well known and well liked incumbants running for the same seat.
This race poll wise will be like the Ashcroft vs Mel Carnahan race until Mels death It will essentially be tied or within 2-3% the entire election.
Two people whose poll numbers look ominous are Bill Janklows and Bob Torrecellis'. Janklow is below 50% with 100% name recognition with an unknown. The Torch is only in the high 30's against Forrester who is still unknown in NJ. The only thing Torch has going for him are NJ's demographics.
Posted by TOM @ 08/20/2002 08:28 AM PST
The reason I think Anne Summers will win in NJ also has to do with NJ demographics.
Marge Roukema was a perfect fit for the district as a whole. In later years, she was no longer a perfect fit for the Jersey GOP.
When voters go to replace Marge, they will go with the candidate that resembles her views the most. Remeber, this district has not changed, only the Republican activists have moved far too the right.
If Summers and Garret were both Independents running with their current issues, Summers would mop the floor with him.
Summers like many northern suburbanites is ether a former Republican or a person who is increasingly willing to vote for Democrats.
Garretts only plus is his party affiliation.Summers is the right person with the right views running in the right year. That is why I pick this race as my upset special in the northeast.
I saw this same phenomenon happen in the South in reverse. The republicans never made gains in a straight line, they took advantage in election years where the atmosphere was right.
it is and will continue to happen in the Northeast, midwest and west coast suburban areas.
Posted by TOM @ 08/20/2002 08:58 AM PST
