08/19/2002 Archived Entry: "Changes"
The weblog will be undergoing a format change here soon... maybe causing downtime. Political Wire is back online with a new Mason-Dixon poll showing Hutchinson ahead of Pryor, just in time for the new myDD US Senate rankings-- You like my upset pick?
Also, check out Our Campaigns, a website put up by Randy Parker, whom has posted on the many various political message boards. The site allows predictions on all of the races to be made, and they will be tallied up after the election. I'm not sure how it all works there yet, but it seems to have a ton of potential. For instance, I predicted Kahn over Darden in the GA 11th Primary.
As for McKinney vs Majette, what a tough one to choose! Clinton and Redford making automated telephone calls for McKinney, the WA Times touting an online poll that says 63-37 for Majette, and that 35% of Republicans are going to crossover and vote. I am beginning to suspect a pro-McKinney backlash by black Democrats... As noted, the Republican have a lot of primary races as well. In the recent Michigan primary, a record percentage number of ballots were discarded due to cross-over voting.
Replies: 12 comments
GA posters, how does the voting work in GA? Apparently, in MI, the ballot contains both parties ticket, so cross-voting is easy to do, and results in the whole ballot being discarded.
Posted by myDD @ 08/19/2002 11:38 AM PST
Thanks for the plug, myDD.
I agree on McKinney vs. Majette. Too many factors make this a very unpredictable race.
Sanders in SC? Long-shot, but maybe. Not sure if I'd give up on Pryor in AR that quickly either.
Posted by RParker @ 08/19/2002 12:20 PM PST
RParker, this is Mr.Lib . Did you get my E-Mail to you? From now on, use the E-Mail I told you about, okay? Thanks. Oh yeah, and I'm using your website now as well-it's great. However, I have a question-I just formed an account, but I'm still not listed on the website. Could you put me on the list? Thanks.
Mydd,
The McKinney-Majette race is now too close to call, in my opinion-can I take my prediction back for it?
AVADem,
My response to you is on the Kirk post down the list on this weblog (for your questions). Whew, that was a run-on sentence...
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/19/2002 12:27 PM PST
Mr Liberal, thanks for the background on the KY poll, I think you've made some good points. I gotta think she has a shot at least. As I've stated before, the near primary loss she had was not a negative at all, it generated a huge amount of free national press coverage, and made a one-day victory byline into a weeklong story. They say that any news that increases the politician's name ID is good news, well, she won, so how negative could it be!
Combs-Weinburg and Bradbury are the two to watch for the Dems.
Posted by myDD @ 08/19/2002 01:00 PM PST
I think that Pryor would win in Arkansas. Hutchinson is still under 50 this late in the game. He is where Spencer Abraham was at this time two years ago.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/19/2002 01:18 PM PST
Mr. Liberal-thanks for the info on KY. And don't worry-my uncle also said he truly would vote for a yellow dog before he would even THINK of voting for Scott Garrett.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/19/2002 02:32 PM PST
Thanks, Mydd. And thanks for the humor, AVADem. Hopefully the small band of Democrats up there will act the same way in November.
Also, if you guys have any spare change, could you go to http://www.cardenforcongress.com and contribute? I don't expect anything, but Tim Carden, who I'm working for this year, would really appreciate it. If you can't, could you send them a complimentary E-Mail? They need some good news nowadays anyway.
Tim Carden vs. Mike Ferguson
Ferguson took 429,000 from the Pharmaceutical and Big Business Industries, including Phizer (3,000), Arthur Andersen (6,500), Bristol-Meyers-Squib (1,750), and everybody's favorite-Microsoft (1,000). He voted against Corporate Accountibility legislation in 2001, then this year (after the tide rushed in)got himself in the news by blasting those same companies who gave to them. He also flip-flopped between 1998 and 2000 on countless issues, from pro-life to pro-choice, from pro-gun to pro-gun control, from spending 1.75 million of his own cash between 1998 and 2000 (inherited from his dad, a CEO himself), to becoming a "Man of the People", in his mind. Please, help Tim if you can-he's the kindest, most wonderful man I know.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/19/2002 03:30 PM PST
ISPOS-Reed poll indicates that 50% of the public says that the country is headed in the wrong dirction and 45% say it is headed in the right direction. More GOP senate incumbents are under 50 when compared to the Dem incumbents. And the generic poll shows a drift to the Democrats and the voters are drifting to the Dems on the issues according to Morton Kondracke. I am beginning to wonder whether CQ is seeing the same thing that Kondracke and I are seeing. In the past, this kind of polling result in August has meant a shift to the opposition during November and in some cases it turns out to be a tsunami as in 1980 and 1994. In 1998 Cook predicted a twenty five seat pickup for the GOP as late as September 28 (Time Magazine)and a filibuster proof majority for the GOP in the Senate. We all know what happened on the evening of November 3, 1998. Now he and Amy Walter predict a seven seat gain for the GOP and say that the economy does not seem to matter. We would know by November 6 whether CQ and Cook were wrong once again. Even if they are wrong they would be back in 2004 peddling their wares once again.
By the way Mydd. how long is the down time going to be?
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 08/19/2002 04:49 PM PST
I agree that there seems to be a backlash against Majette in the last couple of days. I think Sanders in SC is more of a possibility than anyone thinks. My friends and family who live in SC said that Lindsey Graham badly damaged himself by interjecting himself into the Republican Gov. Primary. The political insiders are calling it a close race.
Posted by GA6th Dem @ 08/19/2002 06:21 PM PST
Interesting news on the PA governor's race. But will it sweep out George "the Geek" Gekas?
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/3893607.htm
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 08/20/2002 06:14 AM PST
More interesting news items. While the Washington insiders such as CQ think that the Iowa races are settled, independent sources on the ground do not think so:
http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c5917686/18993490.html
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/20/2002 06:17 AM PST
I agree Mydd with your write up on the vulnerable Democratic Senate seats. As of now I would say only Torricelli loses. But New Jersey is so unpredictable. If Torricelli does win it will be by a very bare margin.
I differ though with some of your writeups on the Republican races. I think that Hutchinson is still the most vulnerable Republican seat this fall. Even though the polls are partisan, all of the Democratic polling has Pryor up and this last one (48 Pryor to 40 Hutchinson) was not even affiliated with the Pryor campaign.
Overall I think that Republicans would lose New Hampshire, Texas, Arkansas. I think there is a 50/50 chance of them losing Colorado, Oklahoma. In the others, if the opponent can get money they could pull the upset...especially in Oregon, SC, Kentucky, and Alabama. I see North Carolina, Maine, and New Mexico as pretty safe so far for the GOP.
Posted by Ced @ 08/20/2002 08:07 AM PST
