08/19/2002 Archived Entry: "LA in late November"
That's Lousiana. As you've probably heard, the Republican's have a "shotgun" regional strategy for forcing Landrieu into a run-off on December 7th. The possibility is slim, but Lott and other Republicans are hoping to have this as a back-up, second-chance for taking over control of the Senate, if every other seat remains unchanged. One other recent development is in the 5th District, which Cooksey left open. Alexander, whom Breaux is backing, now has an excellent shot at gaining one of the spots into the run-off for the seat. Though admittedly far-fetched, LA might become ground-zero for Congressional control during the month-long wait-- for one, or both branches of Congress.
Replies: 12 comments
Senator Landrieu has her hands full this year. Terrell will certainly draw off many New Orleans voters, and Cooksey and Perkins take the normal Republican vote. I can see Landrieu falling well below 50% if Terell does what I think she'll do-zoom upward. As for Alexander, I think the district has a 30% African-American population, so he could easily make the runoff. The question is whether he could win on December 7th.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/19/2002 04:43 PM PST
This race worries me a bit. Right now I see Landrieu getting the 50% she needs to avoid a runoff. But she will now have to work hard for it. The GOP always seems to get at least 40 percent in statewide races, so she has to avoid any siphoning away of traditional Democrat voters and independents.
Posted by Ced @ 08/20/2002 07:46 AM PST
I would look for the great John Breaux to cut a Mary Landreiu is great/Mary Landreiu is bipartisan/we need Mary Landreiu in the Senate ad come October, right when it could help most. It could be close, but I would be very surprised if there is a runoff.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/20/2002 10:41 AM PST
That would certainly help AVADem. He is enormously popular and should help Landrieu as much as possible to win on Nov. 5th.
Posted by Ced @ 08/20/2002 01:24 PM PST
AVADem -
Zell Miller made one of those ads for Max Cleland. I think it should put the race to bed before it really gets started.
Posted by JimGaGOP @ 08/20/2002 03:48 PM PST
JimGaGOP-the Cleland ad was actually what I had in mind. And how happy are you to see Cynthia McKinney lose?
Posted by AVADem @ 08/20/2002 07:26 PM PST
I have seen on the web, that Lousiana Gov. Mike Foster is considering running for Landrieu's seat. This would make this race an absolute tossup and almost definitely ensure a runoff.
Posted by Ced @ 08/21/2002 06:37 AM PST
I don't know that it would be a good idea for Foster to run. While he is popular, he is also 70 years old, so he probably wouldn't be there too long. The Weld-Nelson Rule (popular siting governors do poorly in Senate races because people would rather keep them in their current job) is bound to have an effect. And, perhaps most importantly, Senator Foster would create Governor Blanco, and I don't know that the GOP would want that-the incumbency leg-up isn't half as important as taking other Dems out of the race, increasing her chances for '03.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/21/2002 10:14 AM PST
Landrieu would be toast against Foster. Trust me. I am a Louisianian who doesn't like Foster that much, but sees things the way they are.
But I don't think he is gonna run. He is too old and he could be in his 80's before he got to chair a committee.
And I don't know how willing the GOP is to lose their governorship. But ultimately, it is up to Foster.
Posted by RWG @ 08/22/2002 07:10 PM PST
From what I read in the Hotline, Foster ain't running. He sounds like he has no interest in going to Washington ("The truth is my feelings are the same as they have always been. This is my place and I really wouldn't want to go to Washington."), and at 70something, there's only so much he could do. And since I doubt either Terrell (perceived as a liberal in some circles, GOP stay-at-homes would doom her) or His-Goose-is-Cooked-sey could win a runoff, Mary Landreiu will still be the prettiest woman in the Senate come Nov. 6.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/22/2002 11:17 PM PST
Hi Everyone! So this is where you've all been hiding (since PoliticalWire shut down its board). Is everyone else here too? Even though Landrieu isn't all that bad as a senator, I'd love to see this election go to a December run-off! If it's the deciding seat, the GOP would make this a "Bush vs Daschle" race. Guess who'd win that in Louisiana? Even Mary L. knows how popular the president is! She's running ads that brag about her support for him (in 74% of her senatorial votes).
Posted by ITrustW @ 08/23/2002 02:02 PM PST
That's why I'm glad Foster backed out-he's the only one who beat her. Perkins is a nobody, Terrell is insufficiently conservative for the necesary run-off turnout, and His-Goose-Is-Cooked-sey would never be able to live down his "daiper on their head" comment (and correct me if I'm wrong, but I doubt many people in Cajun country would support a Protestant Republican over a Catholic Democrat). And I would think John Breaux could negate the Bush-Daschle factor. The GOP went 0-for-the 20th Century in the Sewnate in LA, and it doesn't look like the 21st will start any better.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/23/2002 02:17 PM PST
