08/23/2002 Archived Entry: "Governor's 2002--Great Lakes Area"
Glance at 2004 Gubernatorial Races (2:35AM EDT): That was the AP header I saw this morning which tossed me as a bit early. It turned out to be a misnomer, but it hasn't been changed yet; neither on ABC, which carries the AP preview on five of the Great Lakes area's Governor contests. Heading off with the article-shaping sentence that Republicans have set a goal of winning some of the strategic swing states to offset expected overall losses in governors' contests this year, the story really doesn't go in this direction at all. Of course, the Republicans want to win the states of Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; they are the incumbent party. The real story is that it appears the Democrats will win 4 of those 5 contests. It's likely that the Republicans will win Ohio. However, in IL, MI, and PA, the race appears as one to lose for the Democrats.
If Blagojevich, Rendell, and Granholm keep the lead they have into October, they will start campaigning for a mandate via the state legislative contests. It's becoming a concern for Republicans to avoid coattail victories by the Democrats-- state legislatures are on the line. All three of these Democratic candidates are expecting and relying upon tremendous Union backing for their GOTV efforts. In IL, Blagojevich snagged the Police Union endorsement away from Ryan; in PA, Rendell, now that he has beaten Casey, has gotten the AFL-CIO endorsement; and Granholm is expected to choose Union ally John Cherry for her Lt Governor running mate.
Of these five Governor races, Wisconsin looks like the only contest still up for grabs; at least until the September 10th primary-- when we find out which Democrat is going to face McCullum. Previously, I'd thought that Doyle had the upper hand in a 4-way contest. With George being forced out of the race, the Milwaukee vote will become Barrett's to lose, so he's now got a slight advantage in the primary ("WI Gov: George gone, who benefits?"). Falk, Barrett, and Doyle held a recent debate (transcript), from which the WisPolitics.com staff wrote Drawing a Jack of Hearts and other Behind-the-Scenes Tales. No polling has been done since George dropped out, the most recent (Terrance-R), in July, showed Libertarian Thompson in double-digits (10-11%) and aiming at Republican voters to become Libertarian for the upcoming primary.
Also covering this forecast is Daily Kos --Taking the big states-- blogging: The top twelve states split for Dems 8-4. When Bush lost in 2000, the split favored Republicans 9-3. And if the Dems can come together and take out Jeb in Florida...
A 3-9 to a 9-3 turn-of-the-table would be quite a feat for the Democrats. It's quite possible. As Kos notes, it has 2004 implications written all over it-- particularly when it comes to using the state's infrastructure for campaign events. At this rate, we are heading to margins of defeat for the Republicans that approach blowout proportions at the state level-- +30 gubernatorial seats for the Democrats. There is a cyclical nature to politics, both short and long-term, and as some other comments here have noted, it appears that the Democrats could be peaking a bit too soon. I expect an October shift-of-the-table by Bush/Rove that neatly aligns with the Republican agenda, making competitive many of the seats where it now seem as if the Democrat has a near-lock on victory. And from one perspective, it might just look as dumb luck...
Replies: 7 comments
"It's becoming a concern for Republicans to avoid coattail victories by the Democrats-- state legislatures are on the line."
But would it have an impact on federal races? Would a huge Rendell win knock Gekas out?
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/23/2002 12:40 PM PST
"There is a cyclical nature to politics, both short and long-term, and as some other comments here have noted, it appears that the Democrats could be peaking a bit too soon. I expect an October shift-of-the-table by Bush/Rove that neatly aligns with the Republican agenda, making competitive many of the seats where it now seem as if the Democrat has a near-lock on victory. And from one perspective, it might just look as dumb luck..."
It depends on the stock market by the end of September rather than anything Bush and Rove do. If the stock market is below 9000 on October 1, the Dems would win by a blowout at local levels, and by a narrower margin take the house and senate. People would receive their 401K statments by October 10, and would start making up their minds around Columbus Day.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/23/2002 12:46 PM PST
Could someone help me find some webpage of the "grades" the organizations give politicians? Thank you very much.
Posted by Zach Dem @ 08/23/2002 10:03 PM PST
This is the start of the emerging Democratic Party super majority in this country.
Republicans will win pockets after this year, but the demographics and issues all favor the Dems in big ways.
Leave Utah and Wyoming for the Republicans...We Dems will take the California, the Great Lakes, and the rest of the populated US.
Cheers.
Posted by Democratic Majority @ 08/24/2002 08:51 AM PST
Based on my observations, it is a myth that having the governor of a state be a member of the party of a presidential candidate is a huge plus. Witness how many states in 1996 and 2000 had Republican governors and yet went for Clinton/Gore. The most stark example is Michigan, where Republican Governor John Engler failed to deliver the state for Dole in 1996, and failed to deliver the state for Bush in either the 2000 primary or general election. So, while I think it's great that we're going to have a lot of new Democratic governors, I'm not sure it says that much about 2004.
Posted by SVDem @ 08/24/2002 11:46 PM PST
Yeah, I don't know how much governors matter in presidential elections. If I'm not mistaken, the Republicans held the governorship of every big state except Ohio at the time of the 1996 election.
Posted by RWG @ 08/25/2002 01:36 PM PST
Yes, Governors may not matter much. Actually, GOP held both Ohio and California in 1996. In fact, I believe they held all large states except Florida.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/25/2002 03:04 PM PST
