08/24/2002 Archived Entry: "Top Races in IL, MO, and OH"
Ryan has Ryan on the Ropes in Illinois.
SPRINGFIELD -- Democrat Rod Blagojevich is leading comfortably in the race, as Ryan struggles to convince voters that both his name and his ethics are different from the current GOP administration, according to a new Post-Dispatch/KMOV (Channel 4) poll. The poll - which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points - of 814 likely voters in Illinois found that 48.6 percent of the respondents would vote for Blagojevich if the election were held today, compared to 34 percent for Ryan. "It's only August, and a lot of people aren't engaged in this yet ... but it's enough to suggest the Republicans have an uphill battle," said John Zogby of Zogby International, the firm, based in Utica, N.Y., that conducted the poll. "This is what happens when you have an unpopular incumbent from a given party. The party has been hurt." ...Gov. Ryan registered a 69 percent disapproval rating in the poll, which is consistent with previous polls. That disapproval was evident among even Republican poll respondents.
Is The Ohio Governor race in play?
Columbus -- Taft was supported by 42 percent and Hagan by 33 percent; 22 percent were undecided, and the remainder supported other candidates. Independent polls published earlier showed Taft leading by as much as 22 points. "The governor's race has truly reached a horse-race stage," said Bob Dykes, the Cleveland pollster who conducted the telephone survey of 800 likely voters.
The MO Senate Race still is.
ST. LOUIS -- A new poll shows Democratic incumbent Sen. Jean Carnahan in a statistical dead heat with Republican challenger Jim Talent. The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, shows Talent with 47.1 percent support, while 46 percent chose Carnahan. The statewide Zogby poll of 801 likely voters last week was released Friday by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV. Pollster John Zogby's firm conducted a survey in April showing Carnahan leading Talent by 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent. "What makes this particularly stunning is that we're capturing a Democratic-leaning mood in the rest of the country," Zogby said. "She's got to do something now to stop the slide."
Replies: 7 comments
Ohio is my native state and allow me to say contrary to popular belief many many Democrats live in Ohio. Gore lost their by 4 points with Nader on the ballot. Gore's last appearance in Ohio was October 5th a full month before election day. Rendell said it was the biggest mistake the Gore campaign made and that everything that went into Florida should have went into Ohio with the unions, and GOTV Gore could have easily made up the 4 percent. Missouri is a scary Senate race for me. I just hope ole Jean can pull it off.
Posted by GaDem @ 08/25/2002 12:37 PM PST
GaDem-I'm at school in Ohio right now, and I agree that it at least should be in play. Taft is so bad it would be funny if his gross mismanagement of the education budget hadn't spiked my tutition up a couple thousand dollars. Unfortunately, the Dem party is currently very weak, making the state look much more conservative than it really is (for God sakews, Ohio gave 3 terms in the Senate to Howard Metzenbaum, who was proably more liberal than Wellstone). That Hagan is badly underfunded and almost unknown doesn't help (Taft blew redistricting to save his own ass-both Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown couldv'e been easily drawn out of their seats, but both had made it clear they would run against Taft if he redrew them out, and probably could've beaten him, so he gave them seats), but if he can get more money, Taft is in trouble.
And I wouldn't worry too much about MO. Jim No-Talen'ts fate was sealed when that felon won the GOP primary for Auditor.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/25/2002 01:17 PM PST
GaDem:
I agree with you. Gore should have written off the south and campaigned vigorously in Ohio and New Hampshire.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/25/2002 03:01 PM PST
As far as polls go, how accurate do y'all see Zogby being? ( I am fully aware that I took the time to type y'all , so no hick jokes)
Posted by jimGAGOP @ 08/26/2002 06:38 AM PST
The question is, is this a Zogby poll conducted by Zogby, the kind that have proven accurate, or are they the state polls that Zogby did in 2000 that were actually Republican polls. These polls showed California tied between Gore and Bush, and New York polls showing lazio far ahead of Hillary.
Posted by TOM @ 08/26/2002 09:01 AM PST
It was probably one of the state polls. You don't go from up 11 to down 1 without doing something bad, and I don't recall Mrs. Carnahan doing anything of the sort.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/26/2002 02:19 PM PST
When Zogby polls for a party he lies, when he polls as an independent without taking any money he tells the truth.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/27/2002 07:35 AM PST
