08/28/2002 Archived Entry: "McBride Getting Closer"
The independent survey was done Aug. 22-25 for the Internet news service InsiderAdvantage by The Marketing Workshop showed Bush would earn 46 percent of the vote, McBride 33 percent, with 21 percent undecided. In the Dem primary, Reno has a lead of 34 percent to McBride's 31 percent, with 5 percent going to a third candidate, state Sen. Daryl Jones, and 30 percent undecided. From the last poll, the greatest movement is from Reno supporters to undecided. Where they go after the debate could determine who wins. McBride is not all that well of a public speaker, so it's probably best for him that the debate will be waged through TV until the primary-- which is less than 2 weeks awat. Bush is out campaigning against the class-size initiative, calling it "a one-size fits all, very sterile, homogenized approach to learning.'' Nevermind that the Florida SAT scores have fallen for the third straight year, Bush campaigning against the class-size initiative is the opening that McBride will use to wedge Bush this fall.
''This is a politically driven endorsement of this good initiative'' by the governor, said Ryan Banfill, a spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party, who charged that Bush has done little to promote pre-kindergarten programs. ``His history has not been one of supporting pre-kindergarten and I believe he knows he can't go into the fall being Dr. No on all these good education initiatives.'' Bush argues that if the proposal to cap class sizes were to pass, it would be so expensive that other services would have to be sacrificed. He lobbied the Legislature last spring to require that the cost of each proposal be shown on the ballot. Penelas and class-size backer Sen. Kendrick Meek sued Bush to keep the price tags off the ballot; their suit goes before the Florida Supreme Court on Friday.
Bush is trying to make inroads with Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, whose Independent. He's got a Democratic background though, and should be on the top of any short-list for the Democratic Lt Gov nominee.
Replies: 19 comments
Interesting story!
http://www.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/08/28/elec02.bush.campaigns.ap/index.html
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/28/2002 07:09 PM PST
If McBride wins in November, there will be a Floridian on the '04 ticket and/or the convention will be in Florida.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/28/2002 07:42 PM PST
Great news for McBride. He really has the momentum in this race. Its not that Reno is faltering, it is that McBride is an attractive alternative to many Democratic voters and he has the best chance of getting Jeb this year. I live in Florida and I tell you, Jeb is not all to popular and can be defeated by the right candidate. I am leaning toward Mcbride as far as far as the primary, but will support whoever the Democratic nominee is in the general election.
Posted by Ced @ 08/29/2002 06:26 AM PST
Dick Morris says it is not the economy. But, it is. Consumer confidence falls, stocks in doldrums and unemployment rate 2% higher than it was two years ago...and it starts reflecting in the polls...Dems ahead by four to eight points in the generic polls, even the Arkansas governor's race has narrowed, Janklow in trouble in SD as per an independent poll...watch confindence, unemployment rate and the stocks. If the stocks are still where they are this week, the first week in Ocotber, you would begin to get a "Dem wave" that Charlie Cook is now belatedly talking about after all these months of saying that GOP would gain seats in the House. If the stock gets back to over 10,000, confidence improves and unemployment falls, you are likely to see a status quo.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/29/2002 06:38 AM PST
Great news for California Gov. Grey Davis. He leads 41-30 over Bill Simon is a new independent poll. Also his approval rating is now at 51% up from 39%. That is a pretty good number for him to have considering Cali has a major budget crisis going on.
If he keeps his job approval above 50% come election time, I predict he will blow Bill Simon out of the water in the final tally maybe 55%
Davis, 40% Simon, and 5% other.
Check Yahoo Politics for the story.
Posted by Ced @ 08/29/2002 06:49 AM PST
Actually, I don't see the Gray Davis poll as very encouraging at all. This poll was taken in Simon's darkest hour - right after the fraud verdict, but before the Presidential fund-raiser and any serious ad campaign. Only 1 in 7 Cal voters can recall a Simon ad on TV thus far. Furthermore, this poll was a combination of adults and registered voters, not likely voters. Finally, for an incumbent to be polling at 41% even after spending $25 million already is pathetic. In my view, Simon has nowhere to go but up from this point forward, especially once he starts running a bunch of ads. Davis probably still wins, but I think it's going to get competitive down the stretch.
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 08/29/2002 07:51 AM PST
Don't see how Simon wins in CA.
Posted by Vlajos @ 08/29/2002 08:08 AM PST
I agree it's unlikely that Simon wins. I'm just saying Davis doesn't have this in the bag yet, and that it's going to get closer. I also think turnout will be down, as people are disgusted by both candidates. In a Dem state like CA, that probably favors the GOP. Also, there's still 18% undecided in this race, and undecideds tend to break about 3-to-1 against the incumbent. If this most recent poll is accurate, and that trend holds true, we're talking around a 46%-44% win for Davis. Close!
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 08/29/2002 08:19 AM PST
There was an earlier poll this month with Davis ahead 47-30. It seems Simon is stuck at 30.
Also like I stated above the budget impasse should be killing Davis but it isn't. If the Legislature reaches an agreement then the better for Davis or if it postpones providing a budget till after the elections then it probably still benefits Davis. He wouldn't have to sign a budget with deep cuts and tax increases right before the election.
ROC the reason is am so optimistic about a Davis rout lies in his approval ratings. Just a month ago his rating were so low many wondered if he could win. But for him to actually have 51% of Californians approve of his job performance is stunning. If he has that level of approval on election day he wins big. People don't normally vote out people who they think is doing a good job. This guy is supposed to be so unpopular in California, but still the majority approve of his performance. And since he is facing a very conservative out of step GOP candidate with ethical problems I don't see how he loses.
Posted by Ced @ 08/29/2002 09:31 AM PST
I believe that 47-30 poll was a Dem-sponsored poll, though, which means it probably has a few point cushion in it. That reinforces the accuracy of today's independent poll showing him with an 11-point margin in my mind. Agree that the bump in approval rating is a positive sign, though, but I think he needs around 55% approval to seal the deal. That's typically the cut-off point of where an incumbent is considered vulnerable or not.
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 08/29/2002 09:41 AM PST
The Davis/Simon case is one where the normal correlation between low approval ratings, polling under 50%, and losing the election don't apply. The reason is that Democrats (like me) have a high disapproval for Davis, don't want to vote for him, but will because Simon is clearly a worse alternative. Pete Wilson had similar bad numbers for similar reasons in 1994 and won by 15%.
As far as it goes that people haven't seen Simon ads yet, I don't think we ever really will. Davis, of course, will be running ads continuously until election day. The discussion about Simon lately has been the fraud verdict and collapsing campaign - it hasn't even gotten to the ideological mismatch between Simon and California. Don't lose any sleep over this one - it'll be Davis by double digits.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 08/29/2002 10:56 AM PST
I live in San Diego. Take the most recent road kill you saw, multiply that mortality by 10, and if Simon comes out of this looking THAT *good*, then he's actually LUCKY. Davis wins in a landslide.
Regarding McBride, it appears that Mydd, IMHO, will very likely be correct in his prediction of an upset over Reno. I'm just hoping he's also correct about his prediction of an upset over Jeb in the general.
Posted by Kobe @ 08/29/2002 12:22 PM PST
Jebbie is toast against McBride. Anything that hurts Bush and his image is what pleases me. Governor McBride and Senator Kirk would be to joyous for words
Posted by GaDem @ 08/29/2002 04:16 PM PST
I'm glad to see Mcbride is finally getting momentum. He definitly has my vote Sept 10. I think Bush's adds attacking him actually helped Mcbride and made Bush look like he was vulnerable, even though he supposedly leads all 3 dems by double digit leads. I'd also keep an eye on Kathrine Harris's open seat run. Even though her district is supposedly solid republican her own party seems to hate her. One republican wanted to have her dog run against Harris.
Any Dem that appears moderate or slightly conservative I think could beat her.
Posted by RUDY @ 08/29/2002 05:19 PM PST
KKKHarris will win because its time for her to be paid back. I thought Republicans loved her, I thought she was up there with Ken Starr on their heroes list
Posted by Gadem @ 08/30/2002 09:02 AM PST
KKKHarris's grandfather was actually in the KKK, although I am not sure whether she holds KKK views. She talks about becoming the first Director-General of NAFTA and I do not think it would be easy for her to become head of NAFTA with KKK views.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 08/30/2002 09:47 AM PST
I'm not sure I'd go as far as to say GOPers lover her. Spitting in the face of the law to put your party's guy in the WH is one thing; doing it for pure personal gain is another matter entirely. I looked up the website of her primary opponent (http://www.electhill.com), and it is far more anti-Harris than any of the Democrats.
Posted by AVADem @ 08/31/2002 09:16 PM PST
I heard Sunday's Miami Herald will endorse McBride over Reno. Good news (nothing personal, Janet, it's just, well, we need to beat Jebbie).
Posted by Oregonian @ 08/31/2002 11:54 PM PST
I agree with you 100% Oregonian. God bless Janet Reno for her service to the country, but she can't beat Jeb. Bill McBride can.
Posted by AVADem @ 09/01/2002 07:57 PM PST
