08/30/2002 Archived Entry: "Oklahoma Elections"

Walters chances of knocking off Inhofe in the Genaral appear to have gone sour. He's in a run-off against Boettcher, a political novice, for the Democratic nomination to the US Senate. Boettcher received 34% to Walters 49%, and two unknowns received the remaining 17% force the run-off. If there's this strong an "anyone-but-Walters vote" in the Democratic primary, then it could be even stronger in the general election. Better news for the Democrats in the open 4th CD, where Roberts nowhas a clear shot against Cole.

The Gov race is wide open, with wealthy Independent Richardson campaigning on getting rid of all the toll roads--make the turnpikes free! is his campaign slogan. Former Republican congressman Steve Largent easily won the GOP nomination, while Democrats Vince Orza and state Sen. Brad Henry headed for a Sept. 17 runoff. In 1990, Orza (who switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat last year) led a GOP primary for governor, only to lose in the runoff. Orza is not worried about history repeating itself in the primary run-off against Henry. Orza had 44 percent of the total vote to 28 percent for Henry, with three other candidates dividing up the rest. Orza recently made a strong upward move in the Tulsa World Governor's poll, trailing Largent 40-32 percent, with Richardson gaining 14 percent, and 15 percent undecided-- another Governor's race headed to the toss-ups.

Replies: 8 comments

Actually, Mydd, the site says it's 40-32, not 42-32. So the race is actually closer.

I agree-Walters is toast. He'll probably clear the runoff, but lose in November. However, Orza just might be able to win.

Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/30/2002 02:05 PM PST

Thanks, corrected.

Posted by MyDD @ 08/30/2002 08:22 PM PST

MyDD, please forgive me as this doesn't fit as part of Oklahoma, but I couldn't find where else to put it, (maybe I just missed it) and I wanted to get the ball rolling.

This is my assessment of serious Democratic challengers to Republican incumbents, in order of my assessment of the likelyhood of them defeating the incumbent.

first is the Democrat, then district, then the Republican incumbent
1.Mark Shriver, Maryland 8 Connie Morella
2.Bill Richardson North Carolina 8 Robin Hayes
3.Richard Romero New Mexico1 Heather Wilson
4.John Norris Iowa 4 Tom Latham
5.Joe Courtney Connecticut 2 Robert Fitzsimmons
6.Jack Conway Kentucky3 Anne Northup
7.Henry Cuellar Texas 23 Henry Bonilla
8.Carol Roberts Florida 22 Clay Shaw
9.Jim Humphries West Virgina 2 Shelly Moore Capito
10.Ann Hutchinson Iowa 1 Jim Nussle
11.Eddie Diaz Florida 8 Ric Keller
12.Ed O'Brien Pennsylvania 15 Pat Toomey
13.Julianne Thomas Iowa 2 Jim Leach
14.Hank Perritt Illinois 10 Mark Kirk
15.Tim Bishop New York 1 Felix Grucci
16.Janet Robert Minnesota 6 Mark Kennedy
17.Tim Carden New Jersey 7 Mike Ferguson
18.Louise Lucas Virginia 4 Mike Forbes
19.Doug Dodd Oklahoma 1 John Sullivan
20.Karina Swett New Hampshire 1 Charlie Bass
21.Steve Andreasen Minnesota 1 Gil Gutnecht
22.Brian Hartke Indiana 8 John Hostettler
agreements, disagreements, anybody to add, subtract?

Posted by Adam @ 08/31/2002 04:24 AM PST

Adam,

Here's what I would fix on the list. It's a great list, and it's mostly accurate, but here's a few suggestions:

1)Move Thomas-Leach up several notches-not only has Thomas KILLED Leach in fundraising, but the district has 20,000 more Dems then Republicans in it.

2)A new Conway-Northup poll has Northup under 50%, with Conway at 39%. Conway's campaign didn't say where Northup is, but I guess it's from 45%-49%. I'd switch that race with Courtney-Simmons.

3)I'd move Diaz-Keller down several notches-Diaz has been poor with fundraising, and is unlikely to catch on fire. Same thing with Cuellar-Bonilla.

4)Move Swett-Bass up MANY notches-a new poll out has Bass leading 40-37. Also, Swett is clobbering Bass in fundraising.

5) I'd add CA-46, the race between Gerrie Schipske and Dana Roarbarcher (spelling error?). Roar-whatever recently was exposed to have secretly visited the Taliban before September 11th. Schipske is now soaring in fundraising.

6)I'd add two districts from Arizona-AZ-5 and AZ-8. In AZ-5, Democrats have a strong candidate in Craig Columbus, a CNN financial commentator who is doing well with fundraising. In AZ-8, Democrats have another great candidate in Mary Judge Ryan, the deputy Attorney for Pima County, who is challenging Jim Kolbe. Columbus is challenging J.D. Hayworth.

7)You missed FL-22! That is a MAJOR race between Palm Beach County Commisioner Carol Roberts and Congressman Clay Shaw. I'd place it as one of the top 10 on your list. Also, at the bottom of it I'd add Fl-7, a race between Congressman John Mica and Wayne Hogan, a popular attorney in the district. Mica addmitted he'd have to "fight hard for the first time in years".

8)I'd also add ID-1-a strong Democrat, ex-US Attorney Betty Richardson, is challenging Congressman Butch Otter. Otter is swimming for dear life, if you know what I mean. That race is comptetive also.

I'd also take off Dodd-Sullivan, Andreason-Gutnecht, and Lucas-Forbes-those three are pretty much safe.

Thanks for the advice.

Mr. Liberal

Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/31/2002 07:29 AM PST

Sorry to here Walters will likely not be as competitive as I wanted and thought for so long. But if he can win a very convincing runoff maybe their is still a chance. Ozra has a fair chance of winning.

Posted by Ced @ 08/31/2002 08:20 AM PST

I'd move Hartke up now that Hostettler looks like an insensitive moron.

Posted by AVADem @ 08/31/2002 08:30 AM PST

And I wouldn't be so quick to give up on Walters. He is certainly weakened, but he still has his top issue going for him-that he's not Jim Hooky Inhofe.

Posted by AVADem @ 08/31/2002 08:39 AM PST

Mr. Liberal, I've moved my list to the new entry on House seats MyDD put up. I'll continue the discussion with you there.

Posted by Adam @ 08/31/2002 05:34 PM PST