08/31/2002 Archived Entry: "House 2002 Analysis"
With just 2 more months until the election, readers Adam and Mr. Liberal begin a discussion that I'd like to carry forth for the next week. The topic is House seats, and I've divided them up in the US House 2002 Analysis under six different sections, and will cover one each day over the next week. The competitive seats are divided thus: Redistricting; Reapportionment; Vulnerable Republican Incumbents; Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents; Retired Republican-held seats; Retired Democratic-held seats. I'll state where I stand on the contest as of now, and hope that we will be able to return to this topic again in late October to discuss any revisions-- before the final forecasts are made in early November.
Replies: 16 comments
Great idea, mydd.
A new poll out in KY-3 (Conway-Northup)has Nortup with somewhere in between 45 and 49 percent, and Conway at 39%.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/31/2002 01:49 PM PST
This is my assessment of serious Democratic challengers to Republican incumbents, in order of my assessment of the likelyhood of them defeating the incumbent.
first is the Democrat, then district, then the Republican incumbent
1.Mark Shriver, Maryland 8 Connie Morella
2.Bill Richardson North Carolina 8 Robin Hayes
3.Richard Romero New Mexico1 Heather Wilson
4.John Norris Iowa 4 Tom Latham
5.Joe Courtney Connecticut 2 Robert Fitzsimmons
6.Jack Conway Kentucky3 Anne Northup
7.Henry Cuellar Texas 23 Henry Bonilla
8.Carol Roberts Florida 22 Clay Shaw
9.Jim Humphries West Virgina 2 Shelly Moore Capito
10.Ann Hutchinson Iowa 1 Jim Nussle
11.Eddie Diaz Florida 8 Ric Keller
12.Ed O'Brien Pennsylvania 15 Pat Toomey
13.Julianne Thomas Iowa 2 Jim Leach
14.Hank Perritt Illinois 10 Mark Kirk
15.Tim Bishop New York 1 Felix Grucci
16.Janet Robert Minnesota 6 Mark Kennedy
17.Tim Carden New Jersey 7 Mike Ferguson
18.Louise Lucas Virginia 4 Mike Forbes
19.Doug Dodd Oklahoma 1 John Sullivan
20.Karina Swett New Hampshire 1 Charlie Bass
21.Steve Andreasen Minnesota 1 Gil Gutnecht
22.Brian Hartke Indiana 8 John Hostettler
agreements, disagreements, anybody to add, subtract?
Posted by Adam @ 08/31/2002 05:35 PM PST
Adam,
Here's what I would fix on the list. It's a great list, and it's mostly accurate, but here's a few suggestions:
1)Move Thomas-Leach up several notches-not only has Thomas KILLED Leach in fundraising, but the district has 20,000 more Dems then Republicans in it.
2)A new Conway-Northup poll has Northup under 50%, with Conway at 39%. Conway's campaign didn't say where Northup is, but I guess it's from 45%-49%. I'd switch that race with Courtney-Simmons.
3)I'd move Diaz-Keller down several notches-Diaz has been poor with fundraising, and is unlikely to catch on fire. Same thing with Cuellar-Bonilla.
4)Move Swett-Bass up MANY notches-a new poll out has Bass leading 40-37. Also, Swett is clobbering Bass in fundraising.
5) I'd add CA-46, the race between Gerrie Schipske and Dana Roarbarcher (spelling error?). Roar-whatever recently was exposed to have secretly visited the Taliban before September 11th. Schipske is now soaring in fundraising.
6)I'd add two districts from Arizona-AZ-5 and AZ-8. In AZ-5, Democrats have a strong candidate in Craig Columbus, a CNN financial commentator who is doing well with fundraising. In AZ-8, Democrats have another great candidate in Mary Judge Ryan, the deputy Attorney for Pima County, who is challenging Jim Kolbe. Columbus is challenging J.D. Hayworth.
7)You missed FL-22! That is a MAJOR race between Palm Beach County Commisioner Carol Roberts and Congressman Clay Shaw. I'd place it as one of the top 10 on your list. Also, at the bottom of it I'd add Fl-7, a race between Congressman John Mica and Wayne Hogan, a popular attorney in the district. Mica addmitted he'd have to "fight hard for the first time in years".
8)I'd also add ID-1-a strong Democrat, ex-US Attorney Betty Richardson, is challenging Congressman Butch Otter. Otter is swimming for dear life, if you know what I mean. That race is comptetive also.
I'd also take off Dodd-Sullivan, Andreason-Gutnecht, and Lucas-Forbes-those three are pretty much safe.
Anyway, here are some more Incumbent Republicans that are vulnerable:
The biggest one, IMHO, that you missed, was MI-9-Democrat David Fink vs. Congressman Joe Knollenberg. Knollenberg's district was drained of much of its Republican areas, and many Democratic-leaning suburbs were added in. Fink is doing well in fundraising and is a credible challenge. I'd put this race at about #10.
I'd add VA-7 at the bottom of the list. That features Ex-Georgia Congressman Ben Jones (who played "Cooter" on the Dukes of Hazard) and Congressman Eric Cantor. A poll taken in July had Cantor leading, but his lead is only 48-44 from likely voters who know both candidates.
I'd add those two to the other ones I mentioned. Of course, I consider several more Democrats vulnerable than Mydd does.
Mr. Liberal
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/31/2002 06:16 PM PST
MyDD: Overall, excellent assessment of which races are competitive. I would add three more, for certain.
AR-4. Jay Dickey (R) vs. Mike Ross (D). Ross defeated the incumbent Dickey by a razor-thin 51-49 margin in 2000. Now, Dickey is looking to get his seat back. A Zogby poll released on 8/23 shows Ross with a 41-35 lead.
OH-17. Tim Ryan (D) vs. Ann Womer Benjamin (R) vs. Jim Traficant (I). The County Board of Elections ruled on Friday that Traficant's name will be left on the ballot. Who knows how this will play out. While I don't see Traficant winning, he might siphon enough votes away from Ryan to make it interesting.
WV-2. Jay Humphreys (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R). This is a rematch of 2000, in which Capito edged Humphreys 49-46 in an open seat race.
I've also seen discussion that ND-AL and PA-18 might be competitive, but have seen nothing tangible to confirm in either case.
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 08/31/2002 06:41 PM PST
I agree, ROC-Indy. AR-4 and OH-17 are definatly on my list of vulnerable Democrats. If Democrats had nominated Margaret Workman in WV-2 instead of Humphreys (that's the spelling-and his first name is Jim. I hope I don't come off as obnoxious. I just like correcting errors.), this race would lean to the Democrats right now. A switch of 900 votes, and Workman would have won. Anyway, there's no 3rd party candidate in the race this year, so Humphreys might have a shot.
PA-18 is a likely turnover for the Republicans. ND-AL is probably, however, competitive. I'd add it to the list, mydd.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 08/31/2002 07:01 PM PST
Definitely take Louise Lucas off--she dropped out of the race. See http://www.pilotonline.com/news/nw0824luc.html
Posted by Nick Kessler @ 08/31/2002 07:34 PM PST
Nick, thanks for that, I was unaware of the redistricting making the district less competitive for her. I'm still surprised with her fundraising difficulties though.
It makes it all the more clear how Emily's List has been wasting money helping pro choice women in districts againt well connected pro choice men who are considered the favorites: like Nancy Kaszak against Rahm Emanuel and Lynn Rivers against John Dingell, to name two. There are 3 or 4 other cases that I can't remember at the moment.
Louise Lucas would have been a far better investment for Emily's List in my opinion.
I suppose the only thing that could make the district still competitive would be a last minute entrance Norman Sisisky's son. I think this is highly unlikely though.
Mr. Liberal, I'm in a bit of a rush. I'll respond to your comments when I get back later tonight, or tomorrow.
Posted by Adam @ 08/31/2002 09:14 PM PST
"17.Tim Carden New Jersey 7 Mike Ferguson"
No way. With Torricelli topping the ticket in New Jersey, a large amount of Democrats may very well stay home, which bodes well for Ferguson.
For the most part, Carden is a weak unknown challenger, and a democrat running in a GOP district, which isn't going to bode well for him. Ferguson will likely win with a good 20% margin. All Democratic attention will be in the fifth, where they realize they actually have a chance. The Dems would like to knock Ferguson off since he won narrowly in 2000, but he's compiled a moderate record, his district is more Republican now, and his 2000 opponent was better than his 2002 opponent (at least in my own personal analysis).
I would wager money on the Rush Holt v. Buster Soaries race being closer than the Ferguson v. Carden race. There are three major reasons:
(1) Soaries is black and Republican in a year when J.C. Watts is retiring. The GOP would love a showcase African-American, and if they sense that there's any chance of Soaries winning, they're going to go for it full steam.
(2) Lower Dem turnout coupled with higher GOP turnout compliments of the only person to ever be reprimanded by both the House and Senate ethics committee. And did you know that when he was a student at my alma mater, Rutgers University, he was removed from office as President of the Rutgers College Governing Association because of ethics problems associated with winning his election? This man isn't just sleaze, he's habitual sleaze that NEVER learns from his lessons.
(3) Soaries was Secretary of State, and actually generates a lot of excitement from the state GOP establishment. The high point of the evening at the Diane Allen for US Senate 'victory' party this June was when Soaries won his primary by a good 4:1. People were actually excited.
Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 08/31/2002 10:01 PM PST
"17.Tim Carden New Jersey 7 Mike Ferguson"
No way. With Torricelli topping the ticket in New Jersey, a large amount of Democrats may very well stay home, which bodes well for Ferguson.
For the most part, Carden is a weak unknown challenger, and a democrat running in a GOP district, which isn't going to bode well for him. Ferguson will likely win with a good 20% margin. All Democratic attention will be in the fifth, where they realize they actually have a chance. The Dems would like to knock Ferguson off since he won narrowly in 2000, but he's compiled a moderate record, his district is more Republican now, and his 2000 opponent was better than his 2002 opponent (at least in my own personal analysis).
I would wager money on the Rush Holt v. Buster Soaries race being closer than the Ferguson v. Carden race. There are three major reasons:
(1) Soaries is black and Republican in a year when J.C. Watts is retiring. The GOP would love a showcase African-American, and if they sense that there's any chance of Soaries winning, they're going to go for it full steam.
(2) Lower Dem turnout coupled with higher GOP turnout compliments of the only person to ever be reprimanded by both the House and Senate ethics committee. And did you know that when he was a student at my alma mater, Rutgers University, he was removed from office as President of the Rutgers College Governing Association because of ethics problems associated with winning his election? This man isn't just sleaze, he's habitual sleaze that NEVER learns from his lessons.
(3) Soaries was Secretary of State, and actually generates a lot of excitement from the state GOP establishment. The high point of the evening at the Diane Allen for US Senate 'victory' party this June was when Soaries won his primary by a good 4:1. People were actually excited.
Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 08/31/2002 10:03 PM PST
Mr. Moderate:
I must disagree with you on Tim Carden. I've been working for him since May, and he is a VERY strong candidate. He has raised over 800,000 by now, and will certainly have enough cash to become known. Just remember something: A poll in May had Ferguson leading 48-25, with Tim's ID being 12%. It's like Torricelli-Forrester: Tim will become known, and the race will tighten. Yeah, I think Ferguson will win-but not by 20+ points! I'd say right now that he will not break 55%, at the least. In fact, I expect this race to be close.
On an unrelated note, did you read the press release I left on the Mass. Gov. Race post on NJ-5? I'd like you to comment on it. Also, I agree that Soaries has a shot-in fact, I'd say he has as great a shot as Carden does. Three House races are competitive this year in New Jersey. They could all go one way or another, or split. For all we know, we could have Congressman Soaries and Carden and Congresswoman Sumers (or Garrett).
(In fact, I like Soaries-he has a bright future ahead of him)
And by the way, are you doing anything in politics right now? I've got a potential internship in D.C. next summer if Tim or Dr. Sumers wins....
On a final note, I expect that Doug Forrester will be New Jersey's next Senator. Barring a Democratic tide, of course.
Mr. Liberal
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 09/01/2002 08:40 AM PST
I think Louise Lucas was done in by redistricting. The good Republican folks in the General Assembly (remember that their state districts were thrown out in court) made Bobby Scott's neighboring 3rd District even blacker (I think it's somewhere near 60% African-American now) to make the 4th more Republican, I believe even moving Lucas into the 3rd. But the Democrats will gain a seat in the Old Dominion in November. The more I watch, the more I believe it; Ben Jones is going to beat Eric Cantor.
Posted by AVADem @ 09/01/2002 09:05 AM PST
If the DCCC and the DNC would just send a big fat check to Jones, he could win. A poll taken in July had him trailing 48-44 among voters who knew both candidates. If he can get on the air and get the money to GOTV, he can pull off the upset of the year. GO COOTER!
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 09/01/2002 10:08 AM PST
Mr. Liberal-I'm not entirely sure a DNC check would help Cooter. It's a heavily Republican district, and Jones's website stresses that he's an "Independent Democrat". Mark Warner, (who he cut an ad for) is a much better supporter. His strength, honestly, comes from his past, that the 7th is a very "Dukes of Hazzard"-like area. His victory would be very symbolic, since, for all the talk of Republicans making inroads in the Jewish community, the combined defeat of Eric Cantor and retirement of Ben Gilman would leave the House GOP caucus with NO Jewish members.
Posted by AVADem @ 09/01/2002 11:28 AM PST
Louisiana 5th (open GOP) should be added to the list of competitive races.
Posted by RWG @ 09/01/2002 02:20 PM PST
Mr.Liberal, thanks for your expansive reply. I didn't know a whole lot of the things you pointed out.
1.I'm sorry to hear about Eddie Diaz. I wondered if, given his background, he might not be a good one day story with no followup, but I had hope for him, mainly because of the incumbent.
I didn't pay a lot of attention to the 2000 election, but I read over some of the winning candidate platforms after the elections, and I was struck by Ric Keller. He was clearly the most far right freak of all the newly elected Republicans. In the new era of reregulation and corporate responsibility, I was hoping Keller would become an anachronism.
2.Gerri Schipske is near the top of my list of tier two Democrats. These are candidates who have a chance of winning if there is a big swing to the Democrats come November. I don't know what to make of Rohrabacher visiting the Taliban, and I'm not sure how much of an issue that will be, or should be. According to the primary returns, Rohrabacher starts out with a large lead, he received 65,748 votes to Schipske's 32,076.
3.Arizona 5. Not to be a no-it-all asshole myself, but Columbus is actually a CNBC commentator, not CNN. Of course, CNBC has far less viewers. Mr. Columbus is also being challenged by 2 other Democrats with solid business credentials. I don't know who will win. The incumbent Republican Hayworth seems to have shored up the district since his very narrow reelection in 1996. He too could be hurt by much of the Gingrich deregulation rhetoric. He strikes me as probably the most callow Republican remaining from the class of 1994, and the race is, in my opinion, towards the bottom
end of the second tier districts.
4.In Arizona 8, I don't know how much of a challenger Ryan is, she was defeated in 2000 for the nomination. Also, my guess would be that Kolbe was probably shored up in the redistricting.
5. In both Florida 7 and Idaho 1, Democrats seem to have strong candidates. Of course, that is but 1 of a whole bunch of things needed to defeat an incumbent. Also needed is good fundraising ability, good media presence, a favorable issues environment, a united party and a solid organization. Even with all that, if voters don't feel a need to toss out the incumbent, it's very difficult for a challenger. Hogan and Richardson both seem to be very credible challengers, but I don't know if they have much beyond that. For instance, in the Idaho primary, The incumbent Otter received 60,352 votes to just 17,764 for Richardson. Of course, I realize in Idaho there are many less registered Democrats than Republicans.
6. You're probably right about Dodd-Sullivan. I figured there might be a slim chance that Dodd could build on his momentum of his narrower than expected special election defeat, but it seems far fetched.
7. Regarding Andreason, Gutnecht has had narrow wins the in past, and the district does have a history of supporting Democrats with Tim Penny. Mainly, I figure Andreason might have a shot if national security stays a major issue. He is a former senior defence department staffer in both the first Bush and Clinton administrations.
8. Florida 22 is #8 on the list.
9. I have Michigan 9 right at the top of the tier two list. On the surface, the primary results do give the Democrats some cause for optimism, Fink received 56,982 votes to 45,684 to Knolleberg (a fringe Republican also received 7,040 votes). But, far more Democrats voted in the Michigan primary overall than Republicans. In the Governer's race 1,042,134 voted for Democrats to 580,574 for Republicans. Clearly many more Republicans will come out to vote for the general election. I think Fink needed to be further ahead to show that he had real signs of knocking off Knollenberg.
10. I don't think Jones is a serious challenger to Cantor at all. CNN's Inside Politics did a story on the race and according to them, Jones is showing well in the normally Republican rural areas, but they represent a small part of the district. Most of the district is exurban and solidly behind Cantor. Also, if in the unlikely event that Cantor runs into any trouble, as the only Jewish Republican remaining in Congress, the national Republicans will pull out all the stops needed to ensure his reelection.
I don't know the poll you refer too, but I don't think Jones is well known to most of the district.
I'll write up the list of serious Republican challengers to Democrat incumbents. I'm not as familiar with Republicans so, I'm having a fairly hard time putting them in the order of their seriousness. One positive thing for Democrats, while there are around 20 Republican incumbents in tight races, there are only between 10-15 Democrats.
Posted by Adam @ 09/01/2002 05:44 PM PST
""One positive thing for Democrats, while there are around 20 Republican incumbents in tight races, there are only between 10-15 Democrats""
I think the ratio is more like 15-30 to 5-10. 3:1.
Posted by MyDD @ 09/02/2002 12:35 PM PST
